| Financials -- 12% Allocation Recommended |
American International |
|
AIG |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Oct-99 |
|
$58.00 |
|
$40.28 |
|
-24.80% |
|
-30.91% |
|
$65.00 |
|
HOLD |
Insurance giant AIG has a great international presence and broad product line that should enable it to post solid growth. The stock, meanwhile, is attractively priced compared to book value. Risks include the impact of the credit crisis on the company and the derivatives it holds.
|
Week
|
-16.60% |
| 1M |
-13.84% |
| 3M |
-20.52% |
| YTD |
-30.91% |
|
|
|
American Express |
|
AXP |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Aug-99 |
|
$37.35 |
|
$48.96 |
|
+41.20% |
|
-5.88% |
|
$60.00 |
|
HOLD |
Credit and charge card issuer American Express generally caters to more affluent customers and small businesses. The firm also processes transactions on its own network. As a result, the firm benefits from both transaction volumes and lending activities. International expansion and banks now being allowed to issue Amex-branded cards that are processed over its network are two long-term growth drivers, as is the general trend of consumers choosing to use plastic over cash. Risks include a slowing economy and weakening credit quality, due in part to its expansion beyond its traditional base.
|
Week
|
-4.62% |
| 1M |
+5.36% |
| 3M |
+8.85% |
| YTD |
-5.88% |
|
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway |
|
BRK.B |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Sep-02 |
|
$2318.00 |
|
$4179.00 |
|
+80.28% |
|
-11.76% |
|
$5600.00 |
|
BUY |
Run by Warren Buffet, one of the most renowned investors of all time, Berkshire is a conglomerate heavily weighted to the insurance business. Buffett then uses the strong cash flows generated by these businesses to make shrewd long-term focused investments. Berkshire is often considered a safe haven in difficult markets due to Buffett’s investment acumen. Risks include a more difficult property and casualty insurance environment and Buffett eventually stepping down given his age.
|
Week
|
-6.30% |
| 1M |
-5.35% |
| 3M |
-8.99% |
| YTD |
-11.76% |
|
|
|
Citigroup |
|
C |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Oct-98 |
|
$15.00 |
|
$23.63 |
|
+133.80% |
|
-19.74% |
|
$40.00 |
|
BUY |
Citigroup has become one of the poster children of the credit crisis, writing down tens of billions of dollars in bad loans. However, this mega-cap bank is just too big to go under, has the financial support of a number of sovereign wealth funds, and generates a ton of cash. After years of mismanagement from its former CEO and an overbearing cost structure, the firm is set to benefit from a reorganization to cut costs and take advantage of its large global presence. The stock is best suited for long-term investors who can stomach near-term choppiness due to its considerable credit-quality issues.
|
Week
|
-9.08% |
| 1M |
-0.55% |
| 3M |
-9.22% |
| YTD |
-19.74% |
|
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
|
GS |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Jun-04 |
|
$94.00 |
|
$188.09 |
|
+105.31% |
|
-12.54% |
|
$225.00 |
|
HOLD |
The best-run investment bank in the world, Goldman Sachs has been able to side-step, and in many cases take advantage of, the subprime woes that have plagued most of its peers. With many of its rivals hunkering down, Goldman is set to sweep in and scoop up a lot of depressed assets on the cheap. Risks include a slowing M&A environment and the credit crisis.
|
Week
|
-5.46% |
| 1M |
+5.14% |
| 3M |
+0.55% |
| YTD |
-12.54% |
|
|
|
PNC Financial |
|
PNC |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Jan-05 |
|
$56.00 |
|
$67.01 |
|
+32.84% |
|
+2.07% |
|
$80.00 |
|
HOLD |
PNC is a conservatively run regional bank that has avoided the write-down pitfalls of many of its peers. Deriving over half its revenues from fees, the bank isn’t nearly as dependant on the credit markets as peers, but should still benefit from a widening yield curve. Credit quality and deposit growth have remained solid. The biggest risks to PNC include deteriorating economic and credit conditions, as well as the integration of recent acquisitions.
|
Week
|
-6.59% |
| 1M |
+0.19% |
| 3M |
+5.88% |
| YTD |
+2.07% |
|
|
|
Technology Investment Capital |
|
TICC |
|
|
|
Income |
|
Dec-05 |
|
$15.00 |
|
$7.03 |
|
-31.93% |
|
-23.84% |
|
$12.00 |
|
HOLD |
Trading well below book value, TICC is a high-yielding financial with no exposure to mortgages or consumer loans and low leverage. However, after a stellar track record in year’s past, credit quality issues at several of its portfolio companies severely deteriorated in 2007. As a result, the risks associated with this BDC (business development corp.) have risen and a number of headwinds have popped up. Risks include the continued deterioration in its portfolio companies, the inability to raise additional capital to take advantage of an improved lending environment, low LIBOR rates negatively impacting its ROE on existing investments, and a likely dividend cut.
|
Week
|
-7.13% |
| 1M |
-14.16% |
| 3M |
-34.79% |
| YTD |
-23.84% |
|
|
|
Valley National Bancorp |
|
VLY |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Dec-05 |
|
$21.03 |
|
$18.00 |
|
-5.94% |
|
-5.56% |
|
$26.50 |
|
BUY |
One of the most conservative banks in the U.S., NY metro area Valley is set to take advantage of the credit crisis by expanding its loan portfolio while maintaining its strict discipline. The firm is well positioned to take advantage of a better yield curve. With its credit quality sound, the bank is both a potential acquirer and takeout target. Risks include a premium valuation to peers for a slower growing bank.
|
Week
|
-8.77% |
| 1M |
-6.05% |
| 3M |
-5.56% |
| YTD |
-5.56% |
|
|
|
| Information Technology -- 11% Allocation Recommended |
Cerner |
|
CERN |
|
|
|
Growth |
|
Dec-07 |
|
$47.16 |
|
$46.25 |
|
-1.93% |
|
-3.28% |
|
$58.00 |
|
BUY |
Cerner is a leading provider of healthcare IT (HIT) services, with a strong domestic and international presence. We believe there will be a huge HIT push over the coming years, as HIT services are part of the long-term solution in helping contain soaring healthcare costs. In recent years, the company has shifted its business model towards hosted services from providing hardware, creating a higher-margin recurring revenue stream. Risks include the impact the credit crisis will play in healthcare IT spending, the disruption in the auction rate securities (ARS) market, and lumpy hardware sales going forward.
|
Week
|
-0.75% |
| 1M |
+13.69% |
| 3M |
-3.38% |
| YTD |
-18.00% |
|
|
|
FedEx |
|
FDX |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Nov-98 |
|
$33.00 |
|
$90.37 |
|
+179.24% |
|
+1.35% |
|
$125.00 |
|
HOLD |
A leading provider of domestic and international shipping services, FedEx is set to be a beneficiary of the expanding global economy and increasing wealth in emerging nations such as China and India, as well as e-commerce. The stock usually performs well in the early stages of an economic recovery. Risks include elevated fuel prices and a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
|
Week
|
-8.39% |
| 1M |
-5.91% |
| 3M |
+2.69% |
| YTD |
+1.35% |
|
|
|
Microsoft |
|
MSFT |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Sep-05 |
|
$25.57 |
|
$29.39 |
|
+19.16% |
|
-17.44% |
|
$39.00 |
|
BUY |
The 800-pound gorilla in the software space, Microsoft's rollouts of Vista and Office 2008 have given the company a nice growth runway, as companies and consumers are eventually forced to adopt the new programs. Meanwhile, the company has forged a beachhead in the living room with the Xbox, and is trying to make inroads in the online ad market with recent acquisitions. Risks include a dramatic decline in PC sales and hiccups in its current attempts to buy Yahoo.
|
Week
|
-0.03% |
| 1M |
+2.23% |
| 3M |
+2.91% |
| YTD |
-17.44% |
|
|
|
| Healthcare -- 15% Allocation Recommended |
Aetna |
|
AET |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Mar-02 |
|
$9.25 |
|
$43.25 |
|
+368.97% |
|
-25.08% |
|
$64.00 |
|
BUY |
Aetna has proven itself to be one of the best health insurers around, consistently delivering on earnings expectations and keeping its Medical Benefits ratio in check. The firm derives a small amount of its business from the Medicare and Medicaid markets, but it is growing this segment. Risks include misjudging trends, rising medical costs, and changes in government regulations.
|
Week
|
+0.21% |
| 1M |
+2.29% |
| 3M |
-14.69% |
| YTD |
-25.08% |
|
|
|
Covidien |
|
COV |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Jul-07 |
|
$34.50 |
|
$48.79 |
|
+42.81% |
|
+10.16% |
|
$50.00 |
|
BUY |
After years of underinvestment under the Tyco umbrella, medical device company Covidien is set to benefit as a standalone company as management invests in its business, makes strategic acquisitions, and sheds peripheral businesses. Risks include a decrease in hospital spending due to the credit crunch.
|
Week
|
+3.11% |
| 1M |
+6.09% |
| 3M |
+12.03% |
| YTD |
+10.16% |
|
|
|
Quest Diagnostics |
|
DGX |
|
|
|
Value |
|
May-07 |
|
$48.11 |
|
$49.94 |
|
+4.64% |
|
-5.60% |
|
$65.00 |
|
BUY |
After losing a contract with UnitedHealth to rival Lab Corp, Quest stole Aetna's business from its top competitor and embarked on an aggressive cost-cutting plan. An aging population, the popularity of genetic and preventive testing, and international opportunities all bode well for this strong cash flow generator. Risks include a price war with Lab Corp. and/ or a deterioration in the pricing environment for lab work.
|
Week
|
-1.09% |
| 1M |
+9.69% |
| 3M |
-0.76% |
| YTD |
-5.60% |
|
|
|
Healthways |
|
HWAY |
|
|
|
Growth |
|
Oct-02 |
|
$8.00 |
|
$31.91 |
|
+298.88% |
|
-45.40% |
|
$50.00 |
|
HOLD |
As a leading provider of disease management and wellness solutions, Healthways is at the forefront of the trend of trying to make people healthier, thereby helping bring down medical costs. Expansion into international markets and the possibility (albeit slight) of completing the MHS pilots and gaining a contract with Medicare are two other positives. Risks include losing contracts to in-sourcing, not signing expected contracts, and having difficulties meeting the end points of the MHS pilots due to its tougher demographics.
|
Week
|
-11.70% |
| 1M |
-9.73% |
| 3M |
-39.75% |
| YTD |
-45.40% |
|
|
|
McKesson |
|
MCK |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Jul-07 |
|
$55.42 |
|
$57.37 |
|
+3.74% |
|
-12.43% |
|
$65.00 |
|
BUY |
One of the largest drug distributors and healthcare IT providers around, McKesson is riding the wave of two powerful healthcare trends. An aging population and the introduction of more generic drugs are positives for its distribution business, while the need to contain healthcare costs is a driver for its technology segment. Risks include current litigation, a decrease in hospital spending due to the credit crisis, a decline in prescriptions being written, and margin compression in the competitive distribution business.
|
Week
|
+6.56% |
| 1M |
+8.20% |
| 3M |
-0.54% |
| YTD |
-12.43% |
|
|
|
Psychiatric Solutions |
|
PSYS |
|
|
|
Growth |
|
Jun-07 |
|
$32.44 |
|
$37.28 |
|
+14.92% |
|
+19.76% |
|
$47.00 |
|
BUY |
Mental health facility operator Psychiatric Solutions is a rollup play on the fragmented mental health industry. The firm buys facilities and then improves their performance, while looking to grow same-facility revenue by 7-9% a year through price increases and increasing patient days by adding more beds. The firm is benefiting from a favorable supply/demand picture as a result of beds being slashed in the '90s and a greater awareness of mental health issues. Risks include integration issues, a high debt load, reimbursements, and the possibility that attractive acquisition opportunities dry up.
|
Week
|
-1.69% |
| 1M |
+16.65% |
| 3M |
+18.65% |
| YTD |
+14.71% |
|
|
|
Walgreen |
|
WAG |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Oct-07 |
|
$36.27 |
|
$34.99 |
|
-2.74% |
|
-2.97% |
|
$48.00 |
|
BUY |
Drug store operator Walgreen is well positioned to take advantage of an aging population and a shift to generic drugs as branded pharmaceuticals continue to lose patent protection over the next few years. The company is recession-resistant; has a great portfolio of real estate locations; and has a pristine balance sheet. The company continues to outperform its peers on the same-store sales front, and bottom-line comps get easier for the rest of the year. Risks include a slowdown in the use of "life-style" drugs, reimbursement issues, and rising costs.
|
Week
|
-1.96% |
| 1M |
-6.99% |
| 3M |
-0.26% |
| YTD |
-8.11% |
|
|
|
| Consumer Staples -- 15% Allocation Recommended |
Crown Holdings |
|
CCK |
|
|
|
Growth |
|
Sep-07 |
|
$23.30 |
|
$27.25 |
|
+16.95% |
|
+6.24% |
|
$32.00 |
|
HOLD |
Package and bottling company Crown Holdings is a play on emerging and international markets, with the company generating over 70% of its revenue overseas. Crown has greatly improved its balance sheet the last few years and is a fairly defensive play that has also shown it has pricing power in an inflationary environment. Risks include carrying a high debt load, the inability to pass input costs along to customers fast enough, and the effects a bad crop season could have on its packaging business.
|
Week
|
+1.19% |
| 1M |
+6.20% |
| 3M |
+16.75% |
| YTD |
+6.24% |
|
|
|
Jack in the Box |
|
JBX |
|
|
|
Growth |
|
Aug-07 |
|
$28.27 |
|
$26.95 |
|
-4.67% |
|
+6.27% |
|
$40.00 |
|
STRONG BUY |
Quick-service restaurant operator Jack in the Box has been driving improved results through the introduction of unique, higher-margin premium items to its menus and a re-imaging campaign. At the same time, it is creating significant shareholder value through a refranchising effort. Its fast-growing Qdoba concept, meanwhile, remains extremely undervalued locked inside Jack in the Box when compared to rival Chipotle. Risks include a slowing consumer, rising food commodity costs, and acceptance of new menu items.
|
Week
|
-2.95% |
| 1M |
-0.48% |
| 3M |
+3.45% |
| YTD |
+4.58% |
|
|
|
Kraft Foods |
|
KFT |
|
|
|
Value |
|
Mar-07 |
|
$16.84 |
|
$31.34 |
|
+92.40% |
|
-3.95% |
|
$36.00 |
|
HOLD |
After being freed from the shackles of Altria, packaged food company Kraft is a turnaround play. The company is currently in the midst of a restructuring effort, and plans to both add and shed brands where it sees fit while turning some of its attention to faster-growing international markets. Risks include rising food commodity costs and consumers shifting to private label brands as the economy softens.
|
Week
|
-1.91% |
| 1M |
-1.01% |
| 3M |
+8.78% |
| YTD |
-3.95% |
|
|
|
McDonald's |
|
MCD |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Oct-02 |
|
$19.00 |
|
$59.24 |
|
+244.13% |
|
+0.56% |
|
$59.00 |
|
HOLD |
The world's premier fast-food restaurant, McDonald's has been firing on all cylinders in recent years since implementing its Plan to Win strategy. While U.S. results have held up during the economic slowdown, international results continue to shine. The addition of premium coffees to its menus in the U.S. is a possible catalyst. Risks include rising food commodity costs, a worsening global economy, and its premium coffee offerings not gaining acceptance.
|
Week
|
-2.76% |
| 1M |
+6.03% |
| 3M |
+6.47% |
| YTD |
+0.56% |
|
|
|
Altria |
|
MO |
|
|
|
Income |
|
Aug-02 |
|
$10.87 |
|
$20.94 |
|
+235.05% |
|
-9.23% |
|
$25.00 |
|
HOLD |
After spinning off its international segment, cigarette maker Altria is focused on cutting costs, strategic acquisitions, and returning value to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks. The company also owns a large stake in beer maker SABMiller it can use as currency. Given that cigarette volumes are falling industrywide in the U.S., the stock is more of a defensive, dividend stock. Risks include increased taxes on cigarettes, litigation, declining volumes, and increased regulations.
|
Week
|
+4.08% |
| 1M |
-2.29% |
| 3M |
-6.14% |
| YTD |
-9.23% |
|
|
|
Procter & Gamble |
|
PG |
|
|
|
Core |
|
Mar-00 |
|
$31.00 |
|
$65.21 |
|
+138.19% |
|
-11.18% |
|
$75.00 |
|
HOLD |
One of the premier consumer staples companies in the world, Proctor & Gamble is a defensive play that is also benefiting from its strong global presence and the growth of emerging markets. The firm is also cutting costs and looking to shed underperforming businesses. Risks include consumers trading down to private label brands in a slowing U.S. economy and a premium multiple.
|
Week
|
-2.72% |
| 1M |
-7.70% |
| 3M |
+0.29% |
| YTD |
-11.18% |
|
|
|
Philip Morris International |
|
PM |
|
|
|
Growth |
|
Mar-08 |
|
$24.41 |
|
$51.83 |
|
+112.33% |
|
+0.14% |
|
$57.00 |
|
HOLD |
Spun off from parent Altria, Philip Morris International is a growth story as demand for tobacco products continues to accelerate overseas. The company plans to introduce a number of new products now that it is free from the watchful eye of U.S. regulators to help expand its already dominant position in many markets. In fact, | |