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Market Data from Around the World
Monday, May 4, 2009
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Index
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Change |
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YTD% |
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UNITED STATES - |
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- |
- |
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Dow Jones |
8,427 |
214 |
2.6% |
-4.0% |
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S&P 500 |
907 |
30 |
3.4% |
0.5% |
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Nasdaq |
1,764 |
44 |
2.6% |
11.8% |
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Russell 2000 |
507 |
20 |
4.1% |
1.6% |
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S&P Midcap 400 |
582 |
23 |
4.2% |
8.2% |
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Advance/Decline & Volume |
Click Here for Data |
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TREASURY BONDS |
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10 Year |
3.16% |
down 2 basis points |
+92bp |
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30 Year |
4.07% |
down 2 basis points |
+138bp |
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OTHER KEY DATA POINTS |
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Gold |
Up $14.00 to $902.20/oz |
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Oil |
Up $1.27 to $54.56/bbl |
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EUR-USD |
N/A |
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USD-JPY |
N/A |
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EUROPE |
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- |
- |
- |
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UK FT-SE 100 |
4,243 |
-0 |
-0.0% |
-4.3% |
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France CAC 40 |
3,238 |
78 |
2.5% |
0.6% |
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Germany DAX |
4,902 |
133 |
2.8% |
1.9% |
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ASIA |
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- |
- |
- |
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Japan Nikkei 225 |
8,977 |
0 |
0.0% |
1.3% |
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Hong Kong Hang Seng |
16,381 |
860 |
5.5% |
13.9% |
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Shanghai Composite |
2,560 |
82 |
3.3% |
40.6% |
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India BSE 30 |
12,135 |
732 |
6.4% |
25.8% |
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AMERICAS |
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- |
- |
- |
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Brazil Bovespa |
50,238 |
2948 |
6.2% |
33.8% |
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Canada TSX Composite |
9,863 |
366 |
3.9% |
9.8% |
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Mexico Bolsa |
23,014 |
1115 |
5.1% |
2.8% |
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Stocks started the week strong, led by a 3.4%, or 30-point, increase in the S&P to 907. The Dow climbed 214 points to 8,427, while the Nasdaq rose 44 points to 1,764. Oil climbed $1.27 to $54.56 a barrel, while gold moved $14.00 higher to $902.20 an ounce.
On the economic front, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose 3.2% from February to March to 84.6. The increase was also 1.1% above last year's levels. The Commerce Department, meanwhile, reported that construction spending increased 0.3% in March versus the -1.5% decline economists were expecting.
In earnings news, diversified holding company Loews (L, $27.33, 2.14, Spy) lost -$647 million, or -$1.49 per share, in Q1, compared to a profit of $662 million, or $1.05 per share, a year ago. Revenue fell -16% to $3.02 billion. The company was hurt by its 90% stake in insurer CNA Financial (CNA, $13.65, 1.72, Spy), which reported a first-quarter loss of -$195 million, or -84 cents per share, and a $660 million noncash impairment charge on the value of natural gas and oil properties at its wholly owned subsidiary HighMount Exploration & Production LLC. The stock rose 8.5%.
Wireless carrier Sprint Nextel (S, $5.00, 0.33, Spy) announced a Q1 loss of -$594 million, or -21 cents per share, versus a loss of -$505 million, or -18 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, adjusted EPS was a loss of –3 cents. Revenue fell -12% to $8.21 billion. Analysts were looking for a loss of -5 cents on revenue of $8.28 billion. The company lost -182,000 net subscribers during the quarter, but that was a considerable improvement from the -1.3 million subscribers it lost in Q4. The stock rose 7.1%. Eight Pro investors counted the stock among their top-15 holdings as of last reported.
Shares of Henry Schein (HSIC, $45.66, 3.98, Spy) climbed 9.6% after the medical and dental supply company reported Q1 results that topped the Wall Street consensus. For Q1, the company earned $54.9 million, or 61 cents per share, up 7% from $51.4 million, or 56 cents per share, a year ago. Sales fell -2% to $1.49 billion. Analysts were looking for EPS of 58 cents on revenue of $1.52 billion. The company guided for a full-year profit of between $3.11-$3.26 per share versus analyst estimates of $3.14 per share.
Sysco (SYY, $23.41, -0.94, Spy) shares fell –3.9% after the food service company reported weak fiscal Q3 sales. For the quarter ended March 28th, the company recorded net income of $226.2 million, or 38 cents per share, down -6% from $240.9 million, or 40 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue fell -5% to $8.74 billion. The Wall Street consensus was for EPS of 38 cents on sales of $8.96 billion. Sixty-two Pro investors counted the stock among their top-15 holdings as of last reported.
>> Discuss this story
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| It was another strong day for the market, as stocks just continue to create separation from this year's lows. The S&P also managed to move into the green year to date for the first time since early January. The economic news trickling in isn't great, but it's good enough to signal that the economic trough is forming, and investors continue to jump on the early cycle stocks like restaurants and retail. Transportation stocks have also been rallying nicely, which is typical of an early cycle rally. |
Bullishly best,
Bull Market's Research Team
editor@bullmarket.com
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++ Visit the Recommended List for Bull Market's latest portfolio thoughts, analysis,
and ideas ++ |
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None |
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Top Gainers:
+ PNC Financial (PNC, $43.25, up 5.43, 14.4%)
+ Valley National Bancorp (VLY, $15.26, up 1.22, 8.7%)
+ Liberty Global (LBTYA, $18.03, up 1.33, 8.0%)
+ Dick\'s Sporting Goods (DKS, $19.97, up 1.46, 7.9%)
Top Losers:
+ Technology Investment Capital (TICC, $3.98, down -0.06, -1.4%)
+ MolsonCoors (TAP, $38.50, down -0.54, -1.4%)
+ Altria (MO, $16.17, down -0.20, -1.2%)
+ Kinder Morgan (KMP, $47.15, down -0.39, -0.8%)
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I. April Same-Store Sales Rise at Walgreen
Same-store sales at Recommended List selection Walgreen (WAG, $31.52, -0.01, Spy) grew by 5.7% in April. Total sales increased by 11.1%. A shift in the Easter holiday from March last year to April this year positively impacted results.
Same-store pharmacy sales rose 4.0%. The introduction of generic drugs negatively impacted results by -4.0%. The number of prescriptions filled at same-store pharmacies rose 3.7%, hurt -0.5% by a calendar shift and -2.2% due to more patients filling 90-day prescriptions versus 30-day prescriptions. Overall, pharmacy sales were 8.5% higher and accounted for 65.4% of total sales for the month.
Front-end, or general merchandise, sales, meanwhile, climbed 8.0% on a comparable-store basis, helped by the shift in the Easter holiday. For the combined March/April period, comparable-store front-end sales rose 1.3%.
Walgreen opened 51 new stores during the month, including four relocations, one acquisition, and one store closure. It now operates 7,282 locations in 49 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.
BMR Take: April was a solid month for Walgreen, with the pharmacy operator once again showing same-store sales growth. Meanwhile, the company is likely to be a beneficiary of the swine flu scare, as prescriptions for antiviral medications have soared, as has demand for items like hand sanitizers and disinfectants.
We continue to like the long-term trends at Walgreen, and think its cost-cutting efforts and eventual slow-down in store growth will lead to a nice spike in free cash flow and earnings in a couple of years. We continue to rate the stock a "Buy."
>> Discuss this story
II. Member Q&A: Panera
Q) Panera Bread (PNRA, $57.05, 1.14, Spy) had a strong run up until its post-earnings sell-off. Do you think there is much left in Panera's upward movement?
A) Panera is a fast-casual restaurant operator that focuses on breakfast and lunch by serving a variety of bakery items, sandwiches, soups, and salads. It operates 562 company-owned and 763 franchise-operated restaurants under the Panera and Saint Louis Bread Co names in 38 states and in Ontario, Canada. The company also has 23 fresh dough facilities (20 company owned) that supply fresh dough to most of its restaurants.
Panera was one of the best performing stocks in 2008, up 50% when most stocks were down. However, it fell -12% after reporting a solid Q1 earnings report.
For Q1, the company saw its profit rise 41% to $17.4 million, or 57 cents per share, from $12.4 million, or 41 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 5% to $320.7 million, as same-store sales inched up 0.7%. Analysts were looking for EPS of 57 cents on sales of $317.7 million. The company reiterated its full-year target for EPS of $2.55-$2.71.
The strong earnings growth was the result of strong operating margin improvement, which improved 200 basis points as wheat prices fell and franchise dough prices increased. Management expects operating margins to improve by 75 to 125 basis points for the full year. For 2010, management has begun to lock in between 25-33% of its expected wheat costs at $8.00 per bushel, which is an improvement from the roughly $9.00 this year.
Analyst Sharon Zackfia of William Blair, who has an "outperform" rating on the stock, summarized it nicely why Panera shares likely fell following its earnings report. "We suspect investors have begun to look through the near term to Panera’s long-term growth prospects, as Panera’s margin recovery story has likely entered its sixth or seventh inning at this point," the analyst wrote. "To that extent, investors may have been disappointed by the company’s disclosure that expansion is now expected at or below the low end of targeted growth of 80 to 90 new units this year (growth of about 5%). Note that Panera will likely grow EPS at a 20% clip this year on modest mid single-digit sales growth, given a windfall from lower wheat costs. That said, this kind of divergence between sales and earnings is clearly not sustainable, and expansion will have to ramp up again at some point for investors to believe in the achievability of a mid-teens EPS growth rate, which is likely necessary to warrant the stock multiple."
BMR Take: Panera is a solid company that will benefit from lower wheat prices and eventually an improved economy. It has an excellent balance sheet with zero debt and a small cash surplus. That being said, the valuation (over 21x the high end of 2009 guidance and over 19x 2010 analyst estimates) isn't that intriguing, especially with much of the margin improvements already baked in. If the market continues to run, Panera may have some upside into the high $60s, but overall we're neutral on the stock. We'd be more attracted to the name in the mid-$40s.
>> Discuss this story
III. Psych Solutions Receives Upgrade; Proposes Debt Offering
Recently added Recommended List selection Psych Solutions (PSYS, $19.39, 0.11, Spy) received an upgrade from Longbow Research today. Analyst David Bachman upped the stock to "buy" with a target of $35 based on a solid Q1 and a "renewed sense of openness from management."
Bachman applauded management for restoring investor confidence, saying, "We believe management did a great job this quarter removing much of the credibility overhang that we felt was likely to weigh on the shares."
The analyst also said that channel checks indicate that demand for inpatient behavioral services have continued to strengthen in Q2 from weak levels in the fourth quarter of 2008. Bachman also believes same-facility performance should improve markedly throughout the year, with a lift on the admissions hold at Riveredge providing another potential catalyst.
In other news, Psych Solutions has proposed a $120 million debt offering of 7.75% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2015. The company said it plans to use the proceeds to pay down its revolving credit line. The company has $475 million in notes with the same maturity and rate currently outstanding.
BMR Take: The note offering will likely be slightly dilutive given the higher interest rate than its credit facility, but it should give the company some flexibility in expanding or acquiring facilities. The Longbow upgrade lists some potential future catalysts, but obviously the analyst would have served his clients better making the upgrade ahead of earnings.
Our $25 price Target puts the stock at a similar multiple to its slower growing peers, so its not improbable to see the stock trade beyond that level. However, we do think investors will want to see another good quarter or two before assigning it a premium multiple to its peers. We continue to rate the stock a "Hold," mostly because the easy gains have been make, but we think the stock still has upside.
>> Discuss this story
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1. Berkshire's Annual Meeting Yields Normal Trove of Buffett Commentary
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, $3114.90, 70.95, Spy) held its annual meeting on Saturday, which meant that Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger spent the day taking questions from shareholders and expounding on a variety of topics. What the company did not do this time around, however, is release its first-quarter report in conjunction with the meeting, though Buffett did say Berkshire would report reduced operating income and book value per share. Berkshire expects to report its results on Friday.
Operating profit, which measures the performance of Berkshire's non-insurance businesses, such as Justin Boots and See's Candies, will likely total about $1.7 billion, Buffett said at the meeting, down about -12% from $1.93 billion a year earlier.
Book value per share, a key measure of the health of Berkshire's insurance businesses and investment portfolio, fell about -6% from year-end, he said. That comes on top of a -9.6% decline last year, the biggest drop since Buffett began running the company in 1965. The book value decline is tied to losses on the company's derivatives contracts and the overall weakness of the financial markets in Q1. Mark-to-market derivative losses hit net income, but aren't reflected in operating results.
Buffett did say he expects the equity stock index derivatives that he bought will ultimately end up profitable, but the credit contracts could end up as losers.
Berkshire at year-end had 251 derivatives contracts, mostly options, tied to the long-term direction of stocks and junk bonds. Berkshires has had to book billions of dollars of paper losses because asset values have fallen, but the company has also collected substantial amounts of premiums upfront on those put options.
"I personally think that the odds are extremely good that on the equity put options, we will make money," Buffett said.
He also reported that Berkshire's cash stake fell to about $22.7 billion on March 31st, 2009, from $25.5 billion at year end. He added that Berkshire has been buying securities since the end of the quarter and that the cash position is currently under $20 billion. Buffett is willing to let it drop to $17 or $18 billion because Berkshire generates huge amounts of cash each month. A couple years ago, Berkshire had as much as $40 billion in cash on its books.
Buffett also said that its Geico auto insurance subsidiary added over 500,000 new policyholders in the first four months of 2009. Geico has benefited from consumers who are looking to save money because it's the lowest-cost producers in the industry, he said.
As we noted at the outset of this report, Buffett and Munger offered opinions on a variety of topics, including:
Bank stress tests. Buffett and Munger were critical of them, saying they don't believe the tests accurately measure the health of a bank. Berkshire owns stakes in Wells Fargo (WFC, $24.25, 4.64, Spy), US Bancorp (USB, $20.34, 2.38, Spy), and M&T Bank (MTB, $56.29, 6.90, Spy), and Buffett argued that none needed additional capital. He added that he would consider increasing his stakes in those banks at current levels.
"The bank stress test is very likely to be done poorly," Munger said Sunday. "Maybe the whole idea was not such a good idea."
Google's (GOOG, $401.98, 8.29, Spy) moat. Buffett was famous for having avoided buying technology stocks during the dot-com boom, but he and Munger expressed admiration for the strength of Google's core business of selling search advertising. They believe it will be difficult for any competitor to grab market share.
"Google has a huge new moat," Munger said. "In fact I've probably never seen such a wide moat."
The newspaper industry. Berkshire Hathaway owns stakes in the Buffalo News and the Washington Post (WPO, $352.36, -13.52, Spy), and Buffett says he reads five newspapers a day, but he thinks the industry is in deep trouble and may never fully recover from the current downturn.
"For most newspapers in the United States, we would not buy them at any price," Buffett said at the company's annual meeting. "They have the possibility of nearly unending losses. I do not see anything on the horizon that sees that erosion coming to an end."
As the industry loses readers to online sources, their product becomes less attractive to advertisers, Buffett noted, adding that most don't have a sustainable business model.
"Twenty, thirty years ago, they were a product that had pricing power that was essential," said Buffett. "They have lost that essential nature."
Ratings Downgrade. Though Berkshire Hathaway is still one of the most highly rated corporations in the world, Buffett expressed annoyance at the decision by Moody's (MCO, $30.30, 0.80, Spy) to downgrade its debt from AAA to A2A in early April. The lower rating could drive up the company's borrowing costs.
"It still irritates me," Buffett admitted at the annual meeting. Ironically, Berkshire owns about 15% of Moody's stock.
Buffett's Replacement. Buffett has identified four investment managers who could possibly succeed him as the company's chief investment officer. None of them beat the S&P 500 index in 2008, Buffett told shareholders.
"They did not cover themselves with glory ... but I did not either," he said, adding: "I am very tolerant in that respect. Their average over 10 years has been modestly to significantly better than average, and I would say that would be the case over the next 10 years."
Buffett has always let line executives run Berkshire's operating companies without interference, so the belief is that Berkshire is most vulnerable when Buffett decides to step down in the area of investment management.
Housing. The Berkshire chairman said he has started to see some signs of stabilization in the housing market. Berkshire owns one of the nation's largest real estate brokerages. Buffett said that data he's received shows that California, one of the states that has been hit the hardest by the collapse of the housing market, has seen medium to lower priced homes start to sell. In California that equates to homes under $750,000.
"We see something close to stability at these much-reduced prices in the medium to lower part of the market," Buffett said, though prices have not rebounded.
Share Repurchases. Buffett said he does not favor repurchasing Berkshire stock. While he advocated such a strategy for companies in the 1980s, he thinks most companies that have recently been buying back stock have been overpaying. If he thought Berkshire was trading below its intrinsic value based on conservative assumptions, he'd think about share repurchases, but "I don't think that situation exists now," Buffett said.
BMR Take: The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting has, for years, been one of the highlights of the first-quarter earnings season as the Oracle of Omaha dispenses his comments and advice. Buffett also isn't above poking fun at himself. There is usually a short film to start off the meeting, and this year Buffett played a mattress salesman, saying he'd been demoted because he lost the AAA rating. In general, however, the news reports we read commented on how Buffett and Munger took a fairly serious tone that reflected the tenor of the times. We will have another report, most likely next week, on Berkshire's Q1 results as the company typically releases its reports after the market closes on a Friday. We still consider Berkshire a "Buy" for long-term investors. We are curious to see what kind of stocks Buffett has been buying, but we will likely have to wait a while to find out.
>> Discuss this story
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 Terex Focused on Cutting Costs to Survive Downturn
Companies that make construction equipment and other big-ticket machinery were generally hammered by the recession in the first quarter as sales have fallen sharply and rapidly for most of the players in the market. The industry will eventually rebound, but maybe not this year. We will kick off a look at the sector with a focus on Terex (TEX, $15.50, 0.60, Spy) , which makes mining equipment and such things as cranes and earthmovers.
We've covered Terex in past reports, most recently last November when the company reported is Q3 2008 results. In that report we highlighted the fact that a broad swath of insiders had been buying the shares starting in late October and continuing during the steep declines in November.
In that report we noted that it was "pretty safe to assume 2009 earnings will fall off a cliff," and so far that has proven to be the case, with management warning the market was even worse than they originally feared.
The Westport, Connecticut-based company reported a first-quarter loss on April 22nd and said business was down by as much as -75% in certain of its key sectors. The company warned that its sales declines for the year would be even worse than the grim outlook it gave at the outset of the year.
Terex lost -$74.9 million, or -79 per share in Q1, a huge reversal from the $163.3 million profit, equal to $1.59 per share, it posted in the year-ago period. Net sales were $1.3 billion, down -45% from $2.36 billion a year ago.
Adjusting for the impact of a stronger dollar, sales decline by -37% from the comparable prior-year period. During the first quarter of 2009, Terex also incurred after-tax charges of -$30 million, or -32 per share, associated with restructuring programs and a continued reduction in production levels.
The company expects sales will fall -40% to -45% for the full year from 2008 levels. Based on that estimate, Terex should post sales between $5.43 billion and $5.93 billion, down from previous guidance of a decline of -30% to -35%. The analyst consensus is $5.77 billion, or roughly the midpoint of guidance.
"The turmoil from the global credit crisis and economic slowdown has quickly and deeply impacted sales for our industry, with certain sectors down almost 75% from year ago levels," commented Ron DeFeo, Terex Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
The company has responded by aggressively cutting spending. Manufacturing expenses were -39% below the peak spending level in the second quarter of 2008 and down -16% sequentially, the company said, while SG&A spending, excluding restructuring, was down -26% from peak levels and -14% sequentially. Those actions resulted in a -$208 million reduction in quarterly spending. Management is targeting -$300 million in quarterly savings by year-end. The company is operating on a build-to-order basis to keep inventory levels and costs down.
"We continue to operate at reduced production levels, in many instances at levels well below our current demand, with a primary objective to reduce inventory where we saw progress in the quarter with a solid reduction in raw material deliveries," DeFeo said. "The short-term goal is to focus on the loss-making businesses to achieve a breakeven or profitable level, while being cash flow positive for the overall Company, even at these trough levels.”
Construction equipment is one of the loss-making businesses at present. It generated a large operating loss in Q1 as restructuring activities resulted in substantial charges. The goal is to pare $100 million in annualized costs out of the segment and achieve break-even in 2010.
"The majority of these actions already have been implemented, including headcount reductions, continued short work weeks and temporary plant shut-downs, reductions in pay for management, and other employee and non-essential cost related items,” said President and Chief Operating Officer Tom Riordan. Riordan is also acting as the interim head of the construction unit.
At the start of the year, Terex realigned some of its segments. The road-building business, formerly part of the Roadbuilding, Utility Products and Other segment, is now part of the Construction segment. The Utility Products business is consolidated within the Aerial Work Platforms segment. Certain other businesses that were included in the Roadbuilding, Utility Products and Other segment are now reported in Corporate and Other.
The Aerial Work Platforms business reported a nearly -66% decline in net sales to $228.5 million in Q1 and an operating loss of -$41 million. Construction reported sales fell by -48% to $261.7 million from a year earlier, and the segment's operating loss was -$83.6 million, compared to a $4.5 million profit a year ago. Sales of cranes decreased by -$187.5 million, or -29%, to $461.4 million, while the operating profit fell by -$58.2 million to $25.4 million Q1 2009. Large capacity cranes were a strong point during the quarter.
The Materials Processing & Mining segment reported sales were off by -34% to $373.1 million, and profits fell by -$33 million to $35.7 million. The company said demand for mining equipment is being driven by strength in select commodities such as thermal coal and gold.
Of concern for the coming quarters is a sharp drop in the company's order backlog. The backlog for orders deliverable during the next twelve months was $1.983 billion at end of the quarter, a nearly -59% plunge versus March 31st, 2008, and a decrease of -33% from year-end 2008. The decrease in backlog reflects lower net orders across the company, plus the impact of foreign exchange translations.
On the call, DeFeo was philosophical about what his industry and Terex were facing, telling analysts:
"The industry we compete in has always been somewhat unpredictable and certainly not for the faint of heart. What we’ve experienced and continue to manage through is remarkable, even for some industry veterans like myself. The measure of success at this moment in time is not earnings per share nor returns on capital. Success is and will be measured by an organization's ability to flex cost with revenue and position itself to win when the market recovers, as no one is able quite to predict the trajectory of the revenue at this point in time. Part of winning is to assure survival and to harden capabilities in key areas of cash and cost management. We feel that Terex will survive and prosper as we navigate these un-chartered waters."
Terex ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in long-term debt and said $1.1 billion of that debt had maturities no earlier than 2014. The notes are not subject to the same financial covenants as the term loan and revolver agreements, which Terex had earlier warned it might violate before Q1 ended. It was able to restructure the loans in late February. Total debt obligations under the term loan and bank revolver at the end of Q1, 2009 were $276 million, with an additional $64 million of letters of credit outstanding on the revolver.
The company had $899 million in liquidity at the end of the first quarter, including cash of $344 million and revolver availability of $555 million.
"Coupling this with our expected cash flow improvements from working capital should put us in a solid liquidity position going through the rest of the year," the company said.
Immediately after the quarter closed, in something of a surprise, the company announced it would buy the port equipment businesses of Italy's Fantuzzi Industries for 175 million euros, or roughly $232 million. Terex had agreed to pay 215 million euros back in August 2008, but later quashed the deal due to what it call a material decline in Fantuzzi's business.
BMR Take: Despite the grim outlook, Terex has enjoyed a rebound in the past seven weeks of trading, rising from a one-year low of $7.34 on March 6th to its current level of around $15 a share. It's a big reversal for a company that fetched $76.25 back in May of last year. Terex is a broadly diversified equipment company that we expect will come out of this downturn in decent shape, but it is hard to see that happening before late next year or early 2011, given the slim order backlog and headwinds it faces. It's unclear whether any of the stimulus initiatives will directly benefit the company, though some analysts think Terex could get a boost from China. The stock looks interesting in the short term, but only because weaker stocks have generally outperformed their stronger competitors recently. The stock is best suited for aggressive investors.
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