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The Weekly Summary

 

Another extremely volatile week ended with much of the global economy shutting down and stocks once again lurching lower. The S&P 500 dropped 15%, bringing its total YTD decline into the 30% range and erasing all gains since early 2017. BMR stocks were not immune to the gloom, but it's constructive to see a few pockets of strength emerge after a month of near-universal selling. Investors are crowding into stocks that focus on the Retail economy, Remote Communications or both: Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Amazon (AMZN) have started to recover, as have DocuSign (DOCU), Okta (OKTA) and Twilio (TWLO).

 

While we are all happier when winners outnumber losers, the numbers are finally getting better. A week ago we were looking at 96% of all stocks moving together to the downside despite all the Federal Reserve's efforts to support investor confidence. Now only 86% of the market has continued that bearish trajectory while a net 1 in 10 stocks have at least tentatively touched bottom and turned around. Whether this is a simple bounce or a sign of a bigger rebound brewing, even a little incremental improvement feels good.

 

But the storm continues. After a decade without Wall Street tripping the automated circuit breakers once, 15-minute trading halts have become a day-to-day fact of life when the S&P 500 drops 7% in a single bound. Wild days were once extremely rare. Now "normal" ones when the market barely moves 1% are the exceptions. The fact that we still see these "quiet" days after weeks of truly uninterrupted volatility is, again, constructive. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX, 66, down from 83 on Monday) is still elevated but it has started to recede. This is how the market finds a floor and starts getting back to work.

 

In the short term, we expect the outbreak to dominate Wall Street's thoughts for the remainder of March and into April as well. We just don't know when the infection cycle will peak or how society and the economy will bend. Unemployment claims have already surged as state after state shuts down all restaurants and other service-oriented businesses. By Thursday, we could see millions of Americans out of work and hundreds of millions effectively quarantined at home to prevent the virus from spreading.

 

We saw something similar in China earlier this year. Beijing put road blocks in front of about 350 million people and locked down an entire province, surrendering what we suspect will be 3 percentage points of GDP growth for the current quarter. Official sources there say 60% of the country's service workers have gone back to work and 70% of the manufacturing lines are running again. Meanwhile, no new COVID cases have been reported in days while most patients are getting better. There are now only half as many people sick with this virus in all of China as there are in New York State.

 

If you want to question the Chinese numbers, that's your right. We only focus on them as a benchmark for evaluating how far along the U.S. outbreak is and how bad it can get here. On that basis, we're still at least 10 days from the peak, tracking closer to Italy than China. Italian stocks are down 35% YTD. Shanghai is down 11% over the same period. When we see Italy's caseload plateau, we'll have a better sense of what we can expect.

 

And once the medical crisis is addressed, investors can turn to the economic impact. The U.S. Treasury is throwing staggering numbers around: $200 billion for household relief checks, $4 trillion in business loans, and on and on. Simply bailing out the Airlines might cost $50 billion, or 1/40 of what could become a $2 trillion stimulus package. Boeing (BA) alone wants $60 billion. The corporate landscape that emerges will look very different.

 

We have survived these shocks to the corporate landscape and come back to make money in the long term. Success simply requires keeping your eyes open, pivoting when necessary and staying liquid enough to maintain your nerve. While nearly all stocks have crumbled in the last few weeks, dividends become more important than ever. Companies that pay shareholders justify patience through the shaky seasons and, just as importantly keep cash flowing while battered stocks recover. We're thankful to have so much yield in the BMR universe right now to cushion the next few weeks or months.

 

After all, a viral outbreak is unlikely to be a permanent fixture in the global economy. A year from now, we'll be a lot closer to a cure or a vaccine . . . or at least some level of natural immunity. COVID will become something like pneumonia or the flu to protect against and then forget about. It will be part of the status quo, the background noise that investors have learned to ignore. We just have to get there first.

 

And while the bear can come around, there's always a long-term bull market here at The Bull Market Report! Gary Jefferson is off duty but you know what he'd say: this too shall pass, the real economy remains strong enough to weather these obstacles. The Big Picture backs that thesis up with numbers on how bad we currently think the current quarter will get for our stocks and the market as a whole. A lot of apocalyptic scenarios are circulating. We just don't see the point in speculating about how bad it can get. We just want to know when it will start getting better.

 

The High Yield Investor has a few truly breathtaking opportunities to focus on. Investors with a tolerance for risk can lock in astounding dividends here. Even if these companies cut their payout for a quarter or two, there's still a lot of money to be made. Finally, this is a great moment to discuss our Healthcare recommendations and mighty Alphabet (GOOG) itself.

 

Finally, we'd like to repeat: Reach out to us at any time. We will do our best to address your concerns and answer your questions. We are truly all in this together. And if you don't hear back fast, reach out again. These weeks have been a drain on everyone attention and we are watching a lot of things changing every day.

 

Key Market Indicators

 

 

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BMR Companies and Commentary

 

The Big Picture: Not A Disaster Quarter

 

While millions of Americans are now working from home, it's an open question how productive they can be in keeping corporate cash flowing. Meanwhile, millions of other Americans are at home and not working. They're the biggest question mark for the upcoming 1Q20 earnings season, which starts this week with a look at Nike (NKE) and other early reports and then really gets rolling later next month.

 

As far as we're concerned, this quarterly earnings cycle is already irrelevant. Wall Street has written it all off as the last numbers we'll see from the old pre-virus world. What we're all interested in now is what the conference calls tell us to expect in the 2Q20 cycle that starts in July. When management sees no long-term damage, we'll cheer. There's a lot of room in the market for relief. And of course when a company's situation looks extremely dire, we'll know it's time to go.

 

But to get back to 1Q20, we have run the numbers again and again and just don't see a lot of downside for our companies. It's a matter of basic math and the calendar. For most of the quarter, COVID was a far-off threat. Corporate and consumer activity did not change. Only transactions with China suffered any real disruption, and after a year of trade war those relationships were already extremely cool. The past few weeks are when the domestic drag really started . . . and that's maybe 25% of the quarter at most.

 

We're looking for the last few weeks to lower earnings growth for the S&P 500 about 6 percentage points in 1Q20, which is enough to turn a tentative return to expansion back into a slight year-over-year decline. After a year of similar comparisons, there's little surprise or even disappointment here. The only thing that's really changed is the dread around the coming quarter and investors' ability to keep their cool for another three months. Those of us with our eyes on the long term will need to remain disciplined and expand our horizons again. If everyone else panics, that's not our concern.

 

Besides, BMR stocks are still looking for a slight earnings gain this quarter. It won't be much, but even 1 percentage point is a whole lot better than the 2% decline the S&P 500 is currently facing. When the whole world takes a step back, those that retreat the least remain attractive . . . and that's our universe. Granted, a few of our recommendations are going to report a year-over-year decline, but in most cases that difficult comparison is already built into our investment thesis. The REITs, for example, can have a bad quarter as long as they make enough money to pay the dividend. That's why we like them in the first place.

 

And what we've said about 1Q20 applies to 2Q20 as well. Even if the economy as a whole goes over a cliff, some companies will fare better than others. Others will pay shareholders enough to make continued patience worthwhile. Those are the stocks we recommend. If they falter here, we'll go. Otherwise, we're more likely to see other investors come crowding into the stocks we've loved all along.

 

One more thing. Within the virus situation we are having difficulty keeping our company vibrant. We've lost a couple of key players and new ones are proving hard to find. We will be tightening up our delivery schedule and not producing our daily News Flashes this coming week. We look forward to next weekend's report and then will be moving our Newsletters to once a month. However, we are here if you need us. Please write us directly at Todd@BullMarket.com with questions and direction in these tough times.

 

 

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Agilent Technologies (A: $66, down 4% last week)

 

Since early March, the stock is down 21%, from $84. It is instructive to look back to see that the stock has huge upside potential at these levels. During the depths of the Great Recession, Agilent fell to under $10 in 2009 before increasing 9x over the next decade prior to the recent pullback. Starting in 2010, the company reported year-over-year increases in revenue, which is quite a feat.

 

Business disruptions are a fact of life with the coronavirus and even Agilent is not immune. The good news is that the company will make up for these sales once things resume to normal since they are merely delayed, not lost.

 

That’s because it makes stuff companies need through its three businesses (Life Sciences and Applied Markets, Diagnostics and Genomics, and CrossLab). Life Sciences and Applied Markets provide instruments and software that enable its customers (e.g. Pharmaceutical, Academic/Government, Chemical and Energy) to identify and analyze substances. Its second segment, Diagnostics and Genomics, provides active pharmaceutical ingredients that allow pathology labs in hospitals, medical centers, and labs to look at samples for testing and diagnosis. The remaining business, CrossLab, supply labs software, sample preparation products, and laboratory instruments.

 

The company can sustain long-term profitability given its strong market position in these markets, and, selling worldwide helps soften the blow when a region suffers. To put it simply, people need healthcare and these companies rely on Agilent for key items.

 

Revenue continued to steadily advance, with fiscal 1Q20’s (ended January 31, 2020) top line rising 6% versus the year-ago period, to $1.4 billion. Profit fell to $220 million from $250 million due to higher Selling, General and Administrative costs.

 

There is $2.7 billion of debt, and we would like to see this reduced, while it has $1.2 billion in cash. With the industry’s relative stability and strong cash flow generation ($1 billion operating cash flow in FY19), we are not too concerned.

 

BMR Take: The company raised January’s quarterly dividend payout by 10% to $0.18, which is always a nice sign. We fully expect the stock to rebound and reach new heights, even if we can’t tell you when. That being said, the bear market has left the price below our $74 Sell Price, so you need to decide if you want this to remain in your portfolio. Our Target Price is $100.

 

 

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AstraZeneca (AZN: $39, down 7%)

 

The stock fell from $50 last month, a 21% drop, which is better than the S&P 500’s 31% decline over the same period. We fully realize this comes with faint praise because no one likes to lose money, even if it is less than the overall market. It is still a testament to the company’s strength.

 

We fully expect the stock to recover. After all, this is a great company with a solid drug pipeline. Worldwide, it has $23.6 billion in sales, 12% higher than in 2018. There is also good geographic distribution, with the United States generating one-third of sales while Emerging Markets and other International Markets accounted for the other two-thirds.

 

In Oncology, Tagrisso continued to vault upwards, with $3.2 billion in sales versus $1.9 billion. Imfinzi’s sales more than doubled to $1.5 billion and Lynparza experienced 85% growth to $1.2 billion, allowing each to achieve blockbuster status. The pipeline continues to look good, too. For instance, Lynparza received U.S. regulatory approval to treat pancreatic cancer and Canadian authorities gave a thumbs up to give the drug to ovarian cancer patients. The company is awaiting news from different countries on Imfinzi and Lynparza regarding various cancer treatments.

 

For 4Q19, revenue rose 4% year-over-year, to $6.7 billion. Profit fell to $275 million from $1 billion due to higher SG&A expenses and lower other income of $500 million, half the amount in the year ago period. Although we’d like to see higher profits, we are going with management on this one, but we’ll be watching closely for 1Q20 earnings.

 

There is $6.2 billion of cash and a relatively high $20.4 billion of debt. Generating $3 billion in operating cash flow, we are confident it can handle its debt load but we sure would like to see debt slashed by half. Since that is not going to happen overnight, watch carefully.

 

BMR Take: Even a drug company this wonderful is not immune to coronavirus fears. It makes important, and, in some cases, life-saving drugs, which people will still get. Even if there is a disruption to its less urgent drugs, the company will make up for it over time since people need them. Trading below our $44 Sell Price, we understand if you find it prudent to exit your position. Our faith has not wavered, which is reflected in our $58 Target Price, assuming that the virus steadies from here.

 

 

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Eli Lilly (LLY: $122, down 12%)

 

This has been quite a wild ride for the company over the last month. There were big swings – both upwards and downwards. Believe it or not, on Wednesday, the stock closed at $143, up from $142 a month ago, making it a rare find in the current market, before capitulating and falling into negative territory as the market sold off later in the week. When a stock hangs in that well in a market indiscriminately pulling down virtually everything, we call that company a gem. Of course, we have stuck with the company through leaner times when older drugs were coming off patent, so we aren’t surprised.

 

With its new products performing well, replacing those whose patents expired, revenue growth accelerated to 8% in 4Q19, to $6.1 billion, compared to 2% year-over-year growth for 9M19. Key revenue drivers are Trulicity (31% year-over-year 4Q19 revenue growth, to $1.2 billion), Taltz (37% growth to $420 million), Basaglar (32% growth to $305 million), Jardiance (39% growth to $270 million), Cyramza (11% growth to $245 million), and Olumiant (82% growth to $130 million).

 

The company has four main product groups: Diabetes/Endocrinology, Immunology, Oncology, and Neuroscience. It has a strong position in the first three categories, particularly Diabetes, which is good since it faces increasing competition. In January, it announced plans to acquire Dermira for $1.1 billion, boosting its Immunology pipeline by bringing on Lebrikizumab, a moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis treatment, which was granted a Fast Track designation by the FDA. While there is no guarantee it will receive approval, it is a good sign.

 

Trulicity (type 2 diabetes treatment), Basaglar (long-lasting insulin), and Jardiance (reduces cardiovascular deaths for those with type 2 diabetes) are part of the Diabetes category. Taltz, which treats moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, and Olumiant, a moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis treatment, belong to the Immunology category. Cyramza is an Oncology drug used to treat various cancers as a second-line treatment (after the first treatment is ineffective). Income grew 33% year-over-year for 4Q19, from $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion.

 

BMR Take: This stock should provide nervous investors with refuge. We are not overhyping by stating that patients need some of these drugs to survive, and a recession or sheltering in place will not change that fact. The cherry on top is the $0.74 quarterly dividend (2.1% yield) after the company hiked the rate by 15%, effective with the March payment. This is why we envision holding this company forever and don’t have a Sell Price. Our Target is $170.

 

 

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Exact Sciences (EXAS: $52, down 7%)

 

The stock is trading at $52, which is quite a fall from $103, where it traded at a month ago. There was no specific company-related news driving this move, making us believe that the market’s nervousness cut into this high-flying growth company. The company did rebound from Wednesday’s 52-week of $35.

 

Obviously, we can’t control the market’s sentiment. All we can do is tell you about this company’s wonderful prospects that give us so much confidence in its future. Its Cologuard product allows people to stay at home to use the non-invasive testand send it to a lab, instead of having to go through the entire colonoscopy process. Since early detection is the key to preventing colorectal cancer, the second leading cause of cancer deaths in the country, it is not hyperbole to state that this screening tool saves lives. The company added to its product portfolio after its November acquisition of Genomic Health, which provides genomic-based tests, called Oncotype, used to choose the optimal cancer treatments.

 

Revenue has been growing quickly, including nearly doubling last year from $455 million to $875 million. Genomic Health added $66 million in revenue for the two months that it was part of the company. Excluding this, revenue growth was still a strong 80%. The company is scaling, raising expenses sharply to build the infrastructure needed to support this growth. Last year, operating expenses also nearly doubled, from $615 million to $1.1 billion. Its loss narrowed from $175 million to $85 million due to a tax benefit this year. We aren’t concerned about losses at this stage in the company’s lifecycle given its rapid revenue growth that we expect to translate into future profitability.

 

Quite frankly, the balance sheet isn’t in great shape, with $960 million in debt, and we would like to see this figure lower, naturally. The company, which had $325 million in cash, had negative free cash flow of $285 million. Our analysis shows liquidity is adequate right now.

 

BMR Take: This is a company with great potential. It requires a high-risk tolerance, and, with the stock well below our $93 Sell Price, you may figure you can’t stomach this company in your portfolio. The stock also has high-reward potential, reflected in our $145 Target Price.

 

 

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: $120, down 10%)

 

The stock has held up relatively well, falling 19% in a month from $148. Admittedly, a loss is tough to bear, even if it was better than many other stocks. It’s just that the relative strength in a time of broad-based selling indicates the strength of the company’s long-term prospects.

 

If any company is going to muster through the current crisis, it is Johnson & Johnson, with its AAA credit rating ($19 billion in cash, $28 billion of debt), scale, and strong products sold throughout the world (49% of 2019 sales were generated outside of the United States).

 

Pharmaceuticals, which are more than 50% of sales, are leading the way, with 4% growth in 2019, to $42 billion. There are a number of treatments driving the performance, such as Telara (inflammatory diseases), Darzalex (multiple myeloma), Imbruvica (a type of blood or lymph node cancer), Tremfya (moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis), Invega (schizophrenia), and Erleada (prostate cancer).

 

The Consumer and Medical Devices segments, which have been a drag on top-line growth, experienced faster increases in 4Q19 (0.9% and negative 0.5% versus 0.3% and negative 3.8% for the entire year). We are particularly optimistic that Medical Devices’ longer-term sales growth can continue growing quickly due to new products. We are also pleased that Neutrogena’s beauty products are doing well, helping the Consumer business, which is confronting a competitive environment.

 

Risks from Opioid-related litigation are fading with states settling suits, and the potential payouts, once potentially astronomical, appear manageable. Exposure to lawsuits relating to talc in its baby powder remains a potentially large risk.

 

BMR Take: The company rightfully takes pride in raising its dividend every year over nearly 6 decades, giving us confidence that it won’t suspend its dividend, which other companies have done. So, its 3.2% dividend yield looks good right now. Add to that its strong product line-up and that explains our forever time holding period. That is why we don’t have a Sell Price. Our Target is $168.

 

 

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Alphabet (GOOG: $1,072, down 12%) 

 

Alphabet’s stock was flying high at $1,530 last month before its altitude dropped, faltering by 29%. To us, this is an opportunity to pick up shares at a discounted rate. Remember those times you said to yourself that you would love to own Alphabet if only the price wasn’t so high? Well, now’s your chance.

 

What more can we say about the company? First, it is far more than a search engine company. The Google business is Android, Chrome, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Play, YouTube, and of course Search. In other words, a whole bunch of well-accepted, popular products that drive advertising.

 

As co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin stated way back when they started the company, “Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one.” This philosophy has extended to Other Bets, which are risker, long-term ideas.

 

The yardsticks used to measure the success of the business are conventional and outstanding. Last year’s revenue grew by 18%, from $137 billion to $162 billion. You want profits, you got it. It earned $34 billion, up from the 2018’s $31 billion (25% after tax!) All of this is translating into mountains of cash flow - $55 billion in operating cash flow last year, and it is using some its cash hoard of $120 billion to repurchase shares, to the tune of $18 billion in 2019.

 

BMR Take: Does anyone think this company’s business will fall apart due to the impact of the coronavirus? With its products ingrained in everyday life, this is not the case. We have a $1,600 Target Price and our Sell Price is…forget it, we wouldn’t sell this stock.

 

 

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The High Yield Investor
By Larry Rothman
VP High Yield Investments
The Bull Market Report 

 

Someday things will return to normal, we promise. Right now, our “new normal” is cities and states mandating people to stay at home, businesses to shut their doors, and companies withdrawing guidance and suspended dividends. The government rushed into action, with Congress passing a bill that would provide cash directly to many Americans, which we expect to curb some of the dire economic effects of the illness that will inevitably lead to negative growth.

 

The economic data is starting to show this weakness. February’s Retail Sales fell by 0.5% and this will no doubt show a worse reading for March due to the number of people staying home and store/restaurant closings. Last week, we were cautiously optimistic about layoffs, but that situation started changing with jobless claims jumping to 281,000 from 211,000 the prior week. Employers held off on layoffs for a while, but now appear to be letting people go out of necessity.

 

Given this situation, the Federal Reserve is doing what it can to pump in liquidity and keep the markets functioning. Last week’s steps include reviving quantitative easing by purchasing government and mortgage-backed bonds as well as injecting $1 trillion in cash to the repo markets to keep banks’ overnight lending operations going, and the central bank indicated it would continue doing so for the rest of the month.  Of course, the Fed also dropped its Fed Funds rate to between 0% and 0.25%. It was 1-1.25% a few short weeks ago.

 

We view these actions positively. After all, we can live with a recession and bear market. As the Great Recession showed, when markets stop functioning, it creates a dire situation.

 

U.S. Treasury yields were volatile, rising on Tuesday and Wednesday before falling the last two days of the week. The move earlier in the week was attributed to the stimulus package being discussed and the tremendous increase in debt needed to fund it. Ultimately, the two-year note’s yield fell to 0.37% versus the prior week’s 0.49%, and the 10-year bond is yielding 0.92%, down from 1.62% a little over a month ago. The 2/10 spread is 55 basis points compared to the prior week’s 45 basis points.

 

With all of this being said, we give our word that this will pass. In the meantime, The Bull Market Report continues doing our work looking at high yield investment opportunities. AllianzGI Equity & Convertible Income Fund is a more conservative investment that still offers an 820-basis point yield advantage over the 10-year Treasury. High-risk investments that we discuss this week are Annaly Capital Management and Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, two REITs that offer very high yields, although we caution that the companies may cut their dividends.

 

AllianzGI Equity & Convertible Income Fund (NIE: $16.64, down 8%, yield = 9.1%)

 

The AllianzGI Equity & Convertible Income Fund is made for these volatile situations. This fund invests in both equity and convertible securities, so there is some downside protection. Even though it is not as much as an all-convertible fund provides, there is greater upside potential. The weightings for stocks range from 40% to 80% and the balance is invested in convertible securities. At the end of January, 63% of the assets were invested in equities.

 

Convertibles can be confusing and hard to trade for individuals. That is why it is best left to institutions like Allianz. The key thing to understand is that converts have equity and bond characteristics, providing some appreciation potential and downside protection.

 

The portfolio managers’ criteria for investments are above-average earnings growth, high returns on capital, a strong balance sheet, and a competitive advantage. They also look for these characteristics when examining the convertible investments, along with employing credit analysis (that is where the downside comes in). They will also write covered calls, which is selling call options to produce income on some of its holdings.

 

The top 10 holdings accounted for 19% of the portfolio. These include stellar names that are some of our favorites. Its largest holding is Apple, followed by Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Visa, Facebook, and Salesforce.com. No matter what happens, this should provide some solace since these companies are going to be fine.

 

AllianzGI Equity & Convertible Income (Target Price: $26) won’t have the same upside as an outright equity fund since it balances risk by owning convertibles and selling options. That being said, we expect it to hold up relatively well in these times. The stock’s 40% fall has caused the yield to rise by 290 basis points to 9.1%.

 

 

Annaly Capital Management (NLY: $5.31, down 23%, yield = 18.8%)

 

This company invests in residential and commercial assets, passing off most of the income as dividends since it is organized as a REIT. It borrows money to buy investments, so the spread between short-term and long-term rates is very important. The yield curve, with the 2/10 spread widening to 55 basis points from 26 basis points at the start of the month, has been steepening, so that is good for Annaly.

 

There are four groups of investments: Agency (Mortgage-Backed Securities collateralized by residential mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae), Non-Agency mortgages, Commercial Mortgages (originating and investing in mortgages and other real estate debt), and providing debt financing to PE-backed middle-market businesses. At the end of 2019, 93% of its portfolio was invested in Agency debt. This is good since these don’t present much, if any, credit risk.

 

The stock (Target Price: $11) has been halved over the last month, when it was trading at $10.50. It is well below our $9.50 Sell Price, so you may decide that this company is too risky for your taste and bow out, which we understand completely. For those of you that are more risk-tolerant, you should remember that Annaly got through the Great Recession. One word of caution: you shouldn’t get too hung up on the tempting 18.8% dividend yield since the company could cut its payout in light of the challenges. Then again, from what we can see, the company is weathering the storm well, and with the super low short term yields, bodes well for their cost structure.

 

 

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI: $6.99, down 41%, yield = 22.9%)

 

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI: $6.99, down 41%, Yield=22.9%) This is another company that is structured as a REIT. It originates and invests in debt – Senior Mortgages, Mezzanine Loans, and other Commercial Real Estate Debt Instruments, using short-term borrowings to finance part of the purchases. It focuses on the more stressed and distressed properties, which clearly are more at risk in an economic downturn.

 

The company has 84% of its commercial real estate debt portfolio, or $5.3 billion, invested in Commercial Mortgage Loans, leaving the remaining 16% in riskier Subordinate Loans. Apollo also has 29% of its assets in Hotel properties, which are at a higher risk right now with cancellations and closures. The question becomes, how long-lasting are these effects? Other investment areas include Retail, Office, Mixed-Use, and Residential-for-Sale.

 

Apollo (Target Price: $22) is certainly a high-risk investment. With the stock so far below our $15 Sell Price, if you decide you’ve had enough and want to throw in the towel, that is perfectly understandable. This was always a high-risk/high-reward investment since the company relied on short-term borrowings to finance economically sensitive commercial real estate. Those willing to stick with it will notice the 23% dividend yield, which you should approach with caution since the company could cut it. If you believe this crisis will pass relatively quickly, and governments are doing what they can to prevent a full-blown meltdown, you may wish to dabble in the stock at this level.

 

 

Good Investing,
Todd Shaver, Founder and CEO
The Bull Market Report
Since 1998