It's shaping up as a "consolidation" week for the broad market as renewed trade threats kept export-oriented stocks on the defensive. Since BMR coverage has avoided most of those companies, we've dodged the worst of the malaise . . . and are seeing more than our share of bright spots.
The story yesterday revolved around $11 billion in threatened tariffs on European imports as leverage to reduce subsidies that favor local Aerospace giant Airbus over embattled domestic rival Boeing. While Boeing can definitely use a break here, 16% below its YTD peak, Wall Street is less elated at the prospect of a single stock rebounding than nervous about trade walls rising against hundreds if not thousands of U.S. companies.
Our portfolios aren't overweight those companies so our direct exposure is small. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: $136, flat this week) is our most export-driven recommendation and it's holding up well. However, we wouldn't want to be in Boeing, Caterpillar, General Electric, 3M or any of the big Military Contractors like Honeywell. High-profile downgrades on demand expectations for Steel were also bad news for Materials stocks, none of which we have in our universe right now.
Great investing is at least as much about dodging the land mines as reaching for the diamonds. We'll keep dodging the exporters and Materials until we see clarity on global trade. However, that doesn't mean our portfolios will be thinly populated or boring. The S&P 500 is down 0.5% so far this week and the Dow industrials, packed as they are with exporters, has lost a full 1%. The BMR universe is hanging onto positive territory . . . not much, but enough to keep us moving forward.
We'd like to draw your attention to the BMR stocks that made that possible yesterday. They're a mixed group without any underlying news catalysts driving their outperformance. Some are recovering their momentum after a bumpy couple of weeks. Others simply never stopped rallying. They're all Technology companies but that's not the unifying factor here.
Twitter (TWTR: $35, up 1%), CyberArk (CYBR: $118, up 3%), Shopify (SHOP: $204, up 4%) and Anaplan (PLAN: $36, up 2%) are all in full-fledged rally mode despite Wall Street's shudders. If you're looking for "hot money" in our universe, this is a good short list to start with.
Nutanix (NTNX: $39, up 4%) and arguably Netflix (NFLX: $365) are our rebound candidates. Nutanix still has 22% to claw back before it recovers its pre-earnings peak, although we have to note that it had already run up 15% ahead of the quarterly numbers so we're only 7% in the hole here YTD. Likewise, Netflix needs to do a little more work in order to make BMR subscribers real money. Yesterday's 1% uptick on a day when 80% of the S&P 500 lost ground is a great way to start.