Yesterday we flagged a shift in the way funds are flowing on Wall Street and concluded that the dislocation would be temporary, at least where our recommendations are concerned. One of you provided a great concrete example of how it works.
John Herlihy is a BMR subscriber overseas who notes that he's been rotating into stocks that drop precipitously for no clear fundamental reason. He did it with Synaptics (SYNA: $38, up 15% this week), establishing a position below $33. Considering that a lot of pundits wrote the company off for dead a few weeks ago when the CEO quit and the board of directors narrowed guidance to the low end of the established range, that move took courage and clarity.
He's done extremely well on Synaptics in a very short period of time. We suspect the fun isn't over yet. After all the stock was above $43 before the announcement and since then a lot of smartphone suppliers have gained ground as the mood around Apple and other global device makers brightens.
We admit, cutting the high end of guidance trims our long-term growth targets a little, but we don't see the company going over any fundamental cliffs. At worst, we see flat revenue stretching a few more years while earnings per share pop 10% from 2018 levels. That scenario translates into a deep-discount 8X earnings multiple, which is a strong buy given the growth rate unfolding now.
Remember, the market as a whole isn't exactly running rings around Synaptics this year in terms of fundamental growth. If anything, it only takes a little extra sales traction to start guidance moving up again. That was enough to support the stock above $43 a few weeks ago and there's no reason to rule out a full recovery . . . assuming of course that the board doesn't accept an acquisition offer like the ones the previous CEO ignored. We'd cheerfully accept the most recent $59 bid as a reasonable exit for all BMR subscribers.
And of course, the lower the entry point, the bigger the premium. We've seen a lot of our stocks generate stunning swings, with eight of them soaring more than 30% YTD. One of them is Exact Sciences (EXAS: $85, down 5%), which we called out in our last News Flash as another perfectly good company caught in the market cross currents. It rebounded 2% yesterday and has a lot of room left to rally. And then there's Roku (ROKU: $64, up 1%), which has doubled in the last three months despite a 13% retreat roughly in parallel with Synaptics.
As John Herlihy says, "Now isn't that the market? What a ride!"
We wouldn't want anything else. Volatility means our stocks are alive and generating healthy controversy. Ride the swings and the end result is extremely satisfactory. And if you have any questions or comments (or simply want to brag), we're always available at Info@BullMarket.com.