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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: $133, down 1% this week) has been known to drop as much as 4% in the wake of a perfectly solid quarterly report, so yesterday's relatively minor retreat wasn't a real shock. The important thing is to take the long view.

First, the historical numbers remain healthy. Revenue only dipped 1% to $20.5 billion from last year's $20.8 billion. Our math suggested a deeper drop to $20.3 billion, so an extra $200 million more than we thought coming in last quarter counts as a win. The ailing Medical Device unit held up a little better than we expected, with 7% lower sales almost perfectly balanced against a stronger pulse in Consumer Products and Pharma. Excluding the impact of a weak Chinese yuan and strong U.S. dollar, Johnson & Johnson eked out a little bona fide revenue growth.

Management is confident that Medical Devices are turning around thanks to a revitalized product line in Optical and Cardio equipment along with robust hip replacement sales. In the other categories, a wide range of cancer, hypertension and behavioral drugs did well, creating a fertile sales environment for new therapies coming out of the pipeline soon.

Earnings came in at $2.58 per share, nicely above our $2.46 target. It's great to see our first report of the 2Q19 season give us a number that large, especially when the market as a whole is steeled for a slight earnings decline. If our other recommendations can deliver anything like this, it's going to be a great quarter.

Guidance also improved. Management is now tentatively promising up to 4% sales growth for the full year, which implies more than a little acceleration in the next six months. (Drugs and biotech products are the key drivers of this.) While the earnings target didn't budge, the fact that they're still contemplating up to 6% growth on that side is a good show of confidence.

We like these numbers. And while the market seems more concerned with litigation at this point, management continues to assert complete confidence in decades of Johnson & Johnson product testing. They haven't set money aside for anticipated lawsuit settlements. Legal expenses dropped to $190 million last quarter, down a full 85% from 4Q18.

All these fundamentals are going the right way. And if history is any guide, it might take a few weeks for the stock to start moving in the same direction. That's all we want. Johnson & Johnson will never be a fast stock, but it is extremely reliable.

And on the opposite extreme, we'll see you tomorrow morning with the numbers from Netflix. That one could get a little wild, but for now, we're looking forward to clarity.

 

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