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January 24, 2024

Netflix Rules The Streaming Landscape

Streaming giant Netflix (indicated at $538, up 9% overnight)  had a spectacular fourth quarter, hitting $8.8 billion in revenues, up 12% YoY, compared to $7.8 billion a year ago. The company posted a profit of $940 million, or $2.11 per share, up from just $60 million, or $0.12 a year ago, with a beat on consensus estimates on the top and bottom lines, coupled with healthy core metrics lifting the stock as high as $50, following the results, in the post and pre-market trading.

The company’s full-year figures were just as impressive, with $33.7 billion in revenues, up 7% YoY, compared to $31.6 billion, with a profit of $5.4 billion, or $12.03 per share, against $4.5 billion, or $9.95 during the same period a year ago. In the midst of all this, Netflix’s guidance for the upcoming first quarter of 2024 stole the spotlight, with $9.2 billion in revenues, up 13% YoY, and profits expected to more than double.

Netflix unveiled a slew of changes to its platform in 2023, starting with the crackdown on password sharing, followed by lower-tiered pricing, and ad-supported accounts. These initiatives have exceeded all expectations, with 13 million new subscriber additions during the fourth quarter alone, bringing its total headcount to a record 260 million, well ahead of estimates.

These changes were complemented by a strong slate of new releases during the quarter, such as the final season of its long-running royal drama, The Crown, among many others. This is amidst the sea of other content that keeps viewers around the world hooked, leading many observers and analysts to conclude once and for all that Netflix has won the online streaming game.

Despite rising competition from all over the world, Netflix is the only company in this space that has consistently posted growth, while remaining profitable. This year it plans to invest $17 billion in fresh content, and just signed a $5 billion deal to livestream the World Wrestling Entertainment’s RAW, along with other exclusive programming and content on the platform by 2025.

The stock has rallied over 35% during the past year, and 48% if you include today’s big jump, and shows no signs of slowing down as the company goes on the offensive to unlock more value across its platform. We love the fact that the company is buying back its stock. During the fourth quarter alone, Netflix repurchased $2.4 billion worth, made possible by its strong and growing balance sheet position with $7.1 billion in cash, $15 billion in debt, and a massive $7.3 billion in free cash flow. Our Target has been a big $590 because we believe so much in this company. We would not sell Netflix. Would you like to know why? Take a peek at this chart and YOU decide:

Year Number of Subscribers (Millions)
2014 57
2015 69
2016 82
2017 94
2018 137
2019 158
2020 195
2021 209
2022 221
2023 (Q3) 247

 

 

October 19, 2023

Netflix Blows Away the Quarter

Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX: $403, up $57, up 16%) posted a remarkable third quarter performance last night, reporting $8.5 billion in revenues, up 7% YoY, compared to $7.9 billion a year ago. The company posted a profit of $1.7 billion, or $3.73 per share, against $1.4 billion, or $3.10, in addition to a beat on estimates at the top and bottom lines, resulting in a strong 14% post-market rally in the stock following the results.

During the quarter, the company posted strong metrics across the board, starting with its new paid subscribers at 9 million, bringing its total to 250 million. This is largely the result of its crackdown on account sharing, which is now in full swing. Netflix has further rolled out its $6.99 ad-supported pricing tier in select regions worldwide, where these plans now account for over 30% of new subscriber additions.

In addition to this, the platform’s engagement metrics so far this year are off the charts. According to Nielsen, Netflix hosted the most-watched original series for 37 of the 38 weeks this year, and the most-watched movie for 31 out of the 38. Its share of total TV screen time within the US now stands at 8%, far ahead of other competitors, and only lagging behind YouTube, which has taken a slight lead at 9%.

With the success of content such as One Piece, The Witcher, and Top Boy, Netflix has officially cracked the originals game and continues to give traditional Hollywood studios a run for their money. While licensed content will continue to play an outsized role, originals help unlock additional monetization opportunities such as theatrical releases, product placements, and merchandising.

Netflix expects a significant jump in its free cash flow at $6.5 billion, resulting in lower content expenses. In fact, they expect to spend $14 billion on content next year, down from $17 billion which will surely increase cash flow. This has prompted the company to increase its buyback authorizations by $10 billion, creating plenty of support for the stock. The company ended the quarter with $8.6 billion in cash, $17 billion in debt, and $4.6 billion in cash flow. The stock has been hit hard these past five weeks, for conceivably no good reason, as this quarter shattered expectations. This company remains one of our favorites. Our Target is $590 and our Sell Price is: We would never sell Netflix. Yes, the Target is high. But yes, the stock will get there. 2024? 2025? It WILL get there. The competition is shattered and will have to consolidate, with Netflix the clear winner.

 

July 18, 2019

Netflix Fumbles and We're Gone. And We Want You to Think About Taking a Little Profit Off The Table

Netflix (NFLX: $362, down 3% earlier this week) disappointed last night and the stock's precipitous overnight decline provides us with a different kind of wake-up call. Whether you're in Netflix or not, you're going to want to read this flash.

On the surface, Netflix delivered a quarter almost entirely in line with what investors told themselves they wanted to see. Revenue of $4.92 billion was only 0.1% below guidance and reflects healthy 26% year-over-year improvement. Even quarter-to-quarter, the company squeezed 9% more cash out of its subscribers than it did three months ago.

Furthermore, despite profit being a lower priority while management invests vast amounts in original content, it was nice to see that Netflix carried $0.60 per share across the bottom line, $0.04 better than we expected.

But the market found fault as Netflix missed its subscriber growth target, losing 126,000 paid U.S. accounts and only adding 2.83 million new viewers overseas. Management told us to expect the audience to grow by an even 5 million accounts, so it's a clear disappointment.

There are some compensating factors like the way revenue hit guidance. Netflix raised prices in many markets and this is apparently where the pain point is. We know that now. Furthermore, management has doubled down on its aggressive growth forecasts and now expects subscriber adds to accelerate again in the current quarter.

We've had it with Netflix. We've warned throughout that it's going to be a volatile ride. The stock is now down 20% since we started covering it this time around, after making 65% back in 2016-17. We're worried about competitors like Disney and Apple starting to crowd into the space. With a negative $3.5 billion of free cash flow this year and next, we'd rather be invested in a company that actually makes money. We hereby remove Netflix from our High Tech portfolio. We added them on July 16th last year. We're gone now on July 18th, 2019.

However, even for a volatile stock, the reaction to so-so numbers was so extreme that we now suspect that the market as a whole is getting overheated. It's not Netflix. It's Wall Street. And an overheated market can lurch lower as fast as it soars. Even counting the stocks that fizzled and left our list under a cloud, the BMR universe is up a dramatic 33% YTD. This is a great time to lock in some of that profit before a moody market can take it away.

Is It Time to Take Some Profits?

Why are we asking this question?We can’t predict the future. You may think we can, but we can’t. And we want YOU to think about where YOU are and where you are going with your investments. We have made some amazing stock picks and we’ve made you a lot of money in many of these.  (We’ve had a few losers too.) Roku is now a triple since we added it last year. Shopify is up 350% in two years. Square is another quadruple play. PayPal, Twilio, Paycom, Microsoft, Apple, Visa: all strong performers.

Is it time to take some of that off the table? There are a lot of things to worry about in the world today: Trump, Chinese tariffs, Iran, immigrants, global slowdown, flat earnings for the past quarter and next; negative interest rates in Europe and Japan . . . can they happen here? If so, will the Fed run out of ammunition if short rates go to zero? What about the attacks on Big Tech by Congress and the European Union? Can Facebook, Amazon and Google survive this onslaught? Of course they will, but why sit around with someone hitting you on the head with a hammer. Maybe it’s better to step a little away from the scene.

Lots of questions. No solid answers. Irrational exuberance was proclaimed by Alan Greenspan on December 5, 1996 after an amazing bull run in the preceding few years. But the bull market continued to skyrocket until the Spring of 2000. That’s almost 3½ years after Greenspan’s call. So is it too early to start taking profits now?

Again, we don’t know, but we do know that there are things you can do.  You can sell some calls against your stocks. This brings in cash and cushions you on the downside a bit.  But if Roku, which was at $32 at the start of the year goes from $110 now to $90 or even lower, it’s not going to cushion you much with $5 of call option income. So perhaps you can take some profits off the table. Maybe you should put some stops in place.  Sell some at $104. Sell some shares if it hits $96. Sell some more if it hits $90. Then if it goes to $70, which is a distinct possibility in a nasty bear market, you’ve protected your profits and have cash in the bank.

And don't forget, we’ve got 17 stocks in our High Yield and REIT portfolios that are paying from 3% to 11% dividends. (Be wary of Annaly and New Residential, though.) These stocks are just waiting for you to place some cash in them so that you can sleep better at night.

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June 13, 2016

LinkedIn to be Acquired by Microsoft at a 50% Premium

June 13, 2016

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February 9, 2016

NEWS FLASH FEBRUARY 8, 2016

February 8, 2016

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