by Todd Shaver | Dec 30, 2019 | Free Newsletter (Sent Weekly Monday at 12pm)
The Weekly Summary
As the year winds up, the only question left for 2019 to answer is how far back you need to go to get a stronger year. The market this year is close to what we saw in 1998, and we would settle for matching that ultra-bullish dot-com boom. Beyond that, it only takes a few extra percentage points of victory lap before we need to pull out 1975 and even 1958 to find a comparable rally on the books.
Of course BMR stocks are up 41% so far this year, so we're rolling in outperformance either way. A full four of our recommendations doubled, tripled or quadrupled in 2019 and a wide range of others (including mighty Apple itself) are in the 80-95% zone. Only six BMR stocks went down. We're confident that they'll come back strong in 2020.
But then 2020 is the real question Wall Street needs to answer. In our view, the new year will start a lot like the last one, with stocks moving strong to the upside. All we need is a little relief on trade or some sunshine in the coming 4Q19 earnings season to carry the bulls into the summer, at which point the political landscape will undoubtedly get too hot for many investors to handle. That's all right. As long as we stick to our game plan, the election shouldn't hurt us one way or the other . . . and in any event, it's nearly a year down the road, so there isn't a lot of sense in worrying about the results at this stage.
There’s always a bull market here at The Bull Market Report! Gary Jefferson is back with a powerful look at what 2020 is likely to bring us, while The Big Picture focuses on the way markets can swing from dread to exuberance. The rally we're enjoying now isn't any more "irrational" than normal. As such, The High Yield Investor discusses some avenues if you're looking to lock in a little added income before the old year ends. We suggest taking a fresh look at Office Properties Income Trust and Omega Healthcare Investors.
The rest of our paid subscription newsletter is devoted to a few of our biggest winners of 2019 like Anaplan and Alphabet, along with some BMR stocks that fell hard in recent months but are already rebounding fast: Okta, Alteryx and Twitter.
Remember, the last day you can buy or sell stocks this year is Tuesday. Wednesday will be a market holiday and then we start fresh in 2020 on Thursday. As usual, our News Flashes will be a little light this week . . . if there's nothing to say, we won't bore you with filler. Instead, we'll be working behind the scenes to get you ahead of the new year.
Key Market Indicators
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BMR Companies and Commentary
The Big Picture: Animal Spirits In Control
Part of what won Yale economist Robert Shiller the Nobel Prize was his 2005 warning that the housing market was getting unsustainably overheated. Since then, people have come to him to tell the bulls they’ve gone too far. That’s why his recent admission that this record-breaking year on Wall Street is built on irrational factors is so illuminating. Shiller now sees “animal spirits” as the main factor driving what could easily become the best year since the 1950s.
He knows this isn’t logical. And he doesn’t mind. After all, the market isn’t always rational, but when something gets it moving away from the fundamentals, there’s no point in fighting the flow. You’ve simply got to know your own nature. If you aren’t confident enough to run with the bulls, stay on the sidelines and keep cashing 2% Treasury bond coupons. But there’s a lot of money to be made even in a frothy market. Once you let the bulls loose, they’ll run until they’re completely exhausted. Needless to say, we're excited. Even Bob Shiller seems relatively sanguine about how far this rally can continue in 2020 and beyond.
He’s far from alone. Sprawling trillion-dollar asset management complexes are sharing their 2020 outlooks now and they’re convinced bullish conditions will prevail for the foreseeable future. All we need is a mood strong enough to cut through the shocks. Wall Street isn’t climbing a wall of worry any more. We’re riding a wave of exuberance.
It really amounts to market physics. A stock in motion will remain in motion until an obstacle forces a course correction. At this point, there’s nothing big enough looming on the horizon to break the bulls’ stride. We’ve already lived through a year of trade war and earnings deterioration. That’s the status quo now, part of the background noise.
More importantly, it’s already built into the trailing year-over-year comparisons. We don’t need a big external stimulus like tax cuts or even the Fed to get the 2020 numbers going in the right direction. All we need is a little organic growth. That’s been building up behind the scenes as the Fed keeps interest rates low.
Builder confidence is at its highest level since 1999. New home sales are tracking at 2007 levels once again and there’s no ceiling in sight. This is just getting started. And even Bob Shiller, the housing bubble guy himself, has stopped fighting the mood. A year ago, he warned that the housing market reminded him of 2006, right before the crash. Conditions now look hotter than ever.
Shiller says it’s contagious. The impeachment hasn’t stopped it. The trade war hasn’t stopped it. Under normal circumstances, the bulls would have run out of breath by now. But while these aren’t normal circumstances, history shows that they aren’t absolutely unprecedented either. On Shiller’s scale, stocks are “quite high” now at a 30X inflation-adjusted earnings multiple.
Back in 1999, his metrics stretched a full 50% beyond where they are now. History didn’t end. This time around, they can go at least as far before they snap. After all, as Shiller says, we have a motivational speaker in the White House now, someone who loves to talk the market up when everyone else tries to talk it down. That's huge.
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Anaplan (PLAN: $53, down 1% last week )
While Anaplan was down a bit over the past week, it has doubled in the past year and BMR subscribers have captured a healthy 42% of that gain after we added it to the Aggressive portfolio back in March. The company still has significant upside since growth prospects for its decision making software remain bright.
At the forefront of “Connected Planning,” a category that it has created and is a part of the cloud computing category, the technology allows companies to make faster, and, it believes better decisions. Anaplan’s technology, which it calls Hyperblock, connects data through various company’s departments rather than centralizing decision making within the finance department. Currently aimed at large enterprises, there is still plenty of room for growth. At the start of 2019, the company had 1,100 customers and only 250 were part of the Global 2000.
Recent results demonstrate the company’s growth prospects. In the fiscal third quarter (ended October 31), Anaplan’s rapid top-line growth continues, with revenue increasing 44%, from $62 million to $89 million. Although the company has a history of expanding losses, management has slowed down the rate of expense growth. For the most recent period, Anaplan’s operating loss narrowed to $32 million compared to third-quarter 2018’s $50 million operating loss. Management boosted its fiscal 2020 guidance, including raising their revenue expectation to a 44% top-line increase ($347 million) versus their prior 42% expectation, up from $240 million in 2019.
BMR Take: With its pristine balance sheet ($50 million in debt and $310 million in cash), this major disrupter still offers exciting growth prospects as large companies continue to adopt its technology, which includes machine learning and other artificial intelligence. Our Target is $75 and our Sell Price is $45 and we would expect the stock to reach new all-time highs above $60 in the first part of 2020.
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Alphabet (GOOG: $1,352, flat)
The Search giant is up 30% for the year and is within 1% of an all-time record. Not bad for a company with a near-trillion-dollar market cap ($933 billion). The big news recently is that the founders have stepped back and turned over the running of the firm to Sundar Pichai. He’s been running the core Google business since 2015 but this latest promotion gives him a clear line of authority over the entire enterprise.
The search business is solid and obscenely profitable but is not growing terribly fast. Their cloud platform business however rose more than 80% last year, albeit still small at $4.4 billion in revenues. But give this two more years at this growth rate and you have a huge business generating big cash numbers. With revenue tracking near $160 billion in 2019, up from $137 billion in 2018 and $110 billion in 2017, there is nothing but more green ahead for the company.
They are also buying stock back like no tomorrow, with almost $6 billion being spent on shares in just the 3rd quarter. With $120 billion in cash on the books, and generating over $2 billion a month, this type of buying could continue for months if not years into the future. After all, nobody talks about the M-word on the Street, but you have to admit, with 88% of the search market, this company is a monopoly. Is there a risk of the governments of the world getting involved in Google’s business? Yes, of course.
But we think this is highly unlikely and if we didn’t already own stock in the company, we would be happy to acquire shares of this fabulous firm as soon as the market opens for trading on Monday morning. Trading at its all-time high, this concerns us not a bit. After all, why oh why do you think this company is trading at an all-time high? Because it is a cash machine, now and in the future. Our Target is $1450 and our Sell Price is: We would not sell Google.
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Twitter (TWTR: $32.50, up 1%)
What do you do when some of your favorites are down 20-50% from their highs? We go back to the basics.
We continue to love Twitter but the stock has been flat for months now, since October when it was trading in the low 40s. But many times the stock doesn’t tell the whole story. Revenues are good, not spectacular, growing from $2.4 billion in 2017 to $3.0 billion in 2018. This year looks like they will hit the $3.5 billion level, with profits of $1.60 per share in 2018 and what looks like $2.40 in 2019. Compared to a lot of other high-tech companies with virtually no earnings, it’s a nice breath of fresh air to see Twitter actually producing profits.
They still have a ton of cash at $5.8 billion, balancing $2.6 billion of debt. The exposure the company gets from our current president and from the world-changing events that it has been involved in (Arab Spring, Hong Kong) we expect good things from the company in the coming 5-10 years. We see the upside much greater than the downside risk. Our Target of $47 is Aggressive for this $25 billion company and our Sell Price of $25 will protect you on the downside.
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A Word From Gary Jefferson
Jefferson Financial Group
First Vice-President, Investments
UBS Financial Services, Inc.
After digesting dozens of 2020 forecasts from leading Wall Street firms and other outside resources, we want to give you our take on what WE see for the coming year.
First, we don't expect a bear market or a recession. The economy is doing great and it simply is not going to stop on a dime. The things that matter such as consumer confidence, consumer spending, wages, full employment, low interest rates and inflation are at some of the best levels we have seen in our lifetimes.
And the strong economy, of course, is what has and we believe is what will continue to energize the market in 2020. Just look at GDP. The final Q3 GDP estimate of 2.1% puts 2019's annual growth rate on pace to beat the average annual growth rate since this bull market began. Consumer Sentiment was up as well, rising to 99.3 from last month's 96.8.
Even though we key on earnings, if all one did was monitor the following four items, you could accurately forecast the strength of the economy with uncanny precision: GDP, employment, consumer sentiment and interest rates. All are really, really doing well.
Earnings are expected to slow down the first two quarters, but the positive impact from all of the prior rate cuts should hit bottom lines around the midpoint of next year. We anticipate positive growth in the first two quarters and up to 10% earnings growth across S&P 500 stocks for the full year. Thus, if there is going to be a sell-off or "correction," we expect it might be in January or February, triggered more by political consternation than lowered earnings estimates.
If we don't see a pullback early next year, we may have a period of volatility in the June area as politics heats up again with conventions and selections of final candidates. We expect these downswings, if they occur, will be headline-driven events and will therefore result in "buy-the-dip" opportunities for investors wanting to put extra cash to work.
What worked last year: Technology was the clear outperformer in 2019 while Energy was the largest underperformer. As we move in to 2020, we favor Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary stocks (including Amazon) and are not looking for much from either Technology or Energy. However, if Big Oil bounces back, it will come roaring back . . . in that scenario, we'll add to our coverage there.
Either way, as we view the entirety of the economy, tariffs, politics and the Fed, we believe all major sectors are capable of achieving low double-digit returns in 2020, while Consumer Staples, REITs, Utilities and Financials may still be capable of somewhat lower returns.
What we don't expect is smooth sailing throughout 2020. We expect plenty of volatility because of global trade tensions, Brexit and of course politics right here at home. We don't expect the Fed to raise or lower rates next year, but in case the economy needs a safety net, they will lower rates. Oil prices, of course, have always been a wild card, but we see plenty of supply to keep markets stable. We don't expect the president to be removed from office, but rather expect his pro-business policies (less government, fewer regulations and lower taxes) will continue to foster business growth and entrepreneurism.
As a comparison to what we expect, here is the case made by the Stock Trader's Almanac for 2020:
- Worst Case: Correction but no bear in 2020. Flat to single digit loss for full year due to on-going unresolved trade deals, no improvement in earnings and growth weakens further. Trump is removed from office by the Senate, resigns or does not run and political uncertainty spikes.
- Base Case: Average election year gains. Incumbent victory, trade and growth remain muddled, modest improvement in corporate earnings and Fed stays neutral to accommodative. 5-10% gains for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
- Best Case: Above average gains. Incumbent victory, trade resolved, growth improves, earnings improve and Fed stays neutral and accommodative. 7-12% for DJIA, 12-17% for S&P 500 and 17-25% for NASDAQ.
We lean toward the upside.
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The High Yield Investor
As we look toward 2020, most investors have flipped from indulging their grimmest recession fears to a posture closer to our own bullish bias. That's ultimately a good thing. However, it also sets up volatility ahead when expectations get too far ahead of reality, even for a brief period of time. We are looking for good things from the coming year. We just know that the route is going to be far from smooth.
Our top High Yield priority for the coming year is simple: hold defensive positions and wait for money to flow out of these stocks before you expand your holdings. You should have locked in a reasonable quarter-to-quarter income stream to cushion the downswings, so chasing these stocks while yields are relatively low doesn't make a whole lot of strategic sense. The goal is to lock in the highest yields possible, which means waiting until these stocks are out of favor.
It will happen. For now, as long as the rest of the market is rallying, there isn't a whole lot of urgency in building up your defense. And if you're feeling nervous, we suggest capturing the biggest yields you can to offset the impact of negative real interest rates around the world. Remember, the Fed won't raise interest rates again before annual inflation reaches 2%, so locking in anything less for the long term means you're locking in at least a little purchasing power deterioration . . . you are guaranteed to lose money at the end of the road. Who wants that?
Most of our recommendations pay well above 5% and some carry much higher yields as the market pivots from defense to enthusiasm. We'd like to discuss two of our favorites here. The first is ............ AND THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL GET THE BEST VALUE FROM BEING A PAID SUBSCRIBER. GO HERE TO SUBSCRIBE. YOU WILL BE HAPPY YOU DID: www.BullMarket.com/subscribe
Good Investing,
Todd Shaver, Founder and CEO
The Bull Market Report
Since 1998
by Scott Martin | Jul 1, 2019 | Free Newsletter (Sent Weekly Monday at 12pm)
Wall Street kept its fireworks in reserve last week ahead of a G-20 Summit that some predicted would either set the stage for a massive breakthrough on global trade or trigger a complete breakdown. We suspected that both extreme outcomes were unlikely when Chinese and U.S. diplomats are still so far apart on a negotiating framework much less the details that will make or break any proposed deal.
What we got was a continued truce in the trade war that will probably maintain the fragile status quo for months if not through the end of the year. That’s far from the worst scenario.
After all, the S&P 500 managed to rally 18% over the last six months, despite all the back-and-forth rhetorical escalation overseas and stalled earnings growth. We evidently aren’t alone in looking beyond the chatter to better days ahead, and with BMR stocks soaring 32% over the same period, it’s no wonder we’re optimistic.
However, success depends on your time horizon. While the last six months have been good for the market and our recommendations, this year-to-date rally needs to be weighed against an equally harrowing 4Q18 slide. Over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 is up only 8%. After that, while the market keeps tiptoeing from record to record, the gains have been grudging. Someone who bought the index in mid-September would be effectively back at zero now, nearly 10 months later.
BMR stocks, meanwhile, are up 40% end to end. Of course we weren’t in all of our current positions 12 months ago, so the raw number is a little misleading. We recommended 16 new companies over the past year and found compelling reasons to cut coverage on 7 others, keeping our portfolios fully exposed to the hottest areas of the market we can find. Some of those new stocks matured fast with 80-90% YTD performance. Others are taking a slightly slower route or are here to play a more defensive role, quietly accumulating dividends while flashier positions do their work.
All in all, however, our universe outperformed the index on the upside and held up a little better on the downside, both YTD and across the trailing year. BMR stocks held onto an 8% gain through the frustrating second half of 2018, then delivered nearly double what the market as a whole earned on the rebound. While nobody can say with certainty where we go from here, there’s no reason to assume that our track record will come to a sudden end now.
For one thing, BMR stocks collectively still have earnings growth on their side even though fundamentals for the S&P 500 now look stagnant (at best) through at least the release of 4Q19 numbers early next year. The trade war is only an intermittent threat where our recommendations are concerned.
And if the trade war becomes too big a drag on the global economy, the Federal Reserve has all but promised that it’s ready to cut interest rates. In that scenario, the tide of easier money helps all companies, and since ours aren’t under any pressure, the BMR universe stands to enjoy all of the benefits without accepting much of the trade war pain.
In the meantime, earnings season starts in a few weeks, so it’s time to start preparing for that cycle of corporate confessions. Expectations are low. A lot of investors have already discounted the entire earnings season and are looking toward the next Fed meeting at the end of July for a sign that it’s time to set off fireworks.
Remember, people who “sold in May and went away” last summer missed most of the year’s real gains, then buying back in when September rolled around only compounded their mistake. Summer can be a great time for investors, and at this point any significant progress on either earnings or trade will be enough to get stocks rallying in relief.
There’s always a bull market here at The Bull Market Report! The end of the quarter is the perfect time to review our strategic dividend focus in The Big Picture and then follow up with specifics in The High Yield Investor, which only subscribers got.
Key Market Measures (Friday’s Close)
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BMR Companies and Commentary
The Big Picture: Yield Is The Base
When stocks are soaring, our primary objective is to ensure that BMR subscribers are participating in the fun and not simply watching from the sidelines. And likewise, we urge you to buy the dips when a faltering market mood temporarily takes the stocks we recommend down with it.
Either way, we know the future will ultimately be better than the past. The only question is how fast we’ll get there in any particular swing of the market pendulum, given the bumps and detours that can make passive index fund investors so frustrated when the gains slow to a stall. The S&P 500 hasn’t even delivered 1% since mid-September while exposing shareholders to an extremely bumpy ride along the way.
Sometimes it isn’t worth the ride. In these consolidation periods when stocks have already burned through a lot of their rally fuel, the immediate returns have a hard time keeping up with the drain on investors’ nerves. That’s when we tend to spotlight our High Yield and REIT recommendations as an alternative to what could become months of empty angst.
Admittedly, these stocks and Closed End Funds aren’t risk free, but they pay back enough cash to buffer a lot of sluggish seasons. Right now someone could buy 10 shares of each of our 16 recommendations in these two portfolios for about $14,700. A year from now, the market may be willing to pay more or less to take those shares back from you, but along the way you’ll get 7% of that capital back in the form of dividends.
The question for you then boils down to where you think stocks will go in that year. Obviously our more aggressive, Technology-oriented posture has done a whole lot better than 7% over the past year, giving the active BMR universe a healthy 28% win in a period when the S&P 500 is only a little better than breakeven. But where will the next 12 months take us?
We’re optimistic that BMR stocks that led the world over the last year have what it takes to keep rallying as we look beyond 2019 into 2020. After all, 28% is a high enough score to justify a few rollercoaster lurches along the way. However, if the market as a whole suffers a sudden shock, the coming year could be a sour one for our universe as well as the S&P 500.
In that scenario, 7% looks pretty good. Depending on your situation, it could be enough to pay a few bills or provide the dry powder to buy temporarily depressed stocks on the dip. Either way, it’s a whole lot better than nothing, and it dramatically reduces the odds that you’ll need to liquidate at the bottom in order to raise cash.
And 7% isn’t even all that bad in absolute terms. Risk and returns go together. Treasury bonds are as risk-free as it gets, but the market won’t let you lock in more than 2% right now and that’s barely enough to keep up with inflation as it is. Stocks can soar or go over a cliff that takes them months or even years to climb back from, forcing investors to wait a long time before they get their money back.
The S&P 500 generally delivers somewhere between a 10% loss and a 20% gain across a typical 12-month period. Locking in a high dividend yield raises the floor and sacrifices a little absolute upside, smoothing the year-to-year return. In the past year, for example, our High Yield recommendations appreciated 3% beyond the dividends we got, translating into 10% performance for the group. Our REITs, on the other hand, are more about market performance, so we actually lagged the S&P 500 there over the past 12 months after factoring in dividend payments.
It happens. Next year these portfolio dynamics may reverse as the Fed pivots from tightening to a more relaxed policy and REITs go back on the offensive. As the market mood swings, we might see a prolonged stock slump crowd big money into both asset classes, adding significant appreciation to the 7% overall income base across the board. In a “flight to safety,” this is where nervous investors will come to hide. We won’t mind. We’re already here.
Either way, it’s all about diversification. We monitor every recommendation to ensure that they’re more likely to make their regular payments than their peers, but we also recognize that our view is always going to be imperfect. Sometimes one of our companies cuts its dividend after years of reliable performance and we need to evaluate whether it’s time to go. Because it happens so rarely, there’s safety in numbers . . . even if three of our sixteen yield choices cancel their distributions entirely, the aggregate performance floor for the group only drops from 7% to 5.5%.
We are confident that our dividend stocks will get through the next 12 months in better shape than that, in which case the real question turns back to whether you think you can do better than that income floor elsewhere. The S&P 500 may have what it takes. Year to date, the index is beating our REITs by 10% and is narrowly ahead of our High Yield portfolio as well. Our non-yielding growth stocks have rallied 40% in the last six months, so that’s an even better choice.
But if you think there’s even a chance that the coming year bodes badly for the market, it’s worth buying a little insurance that will enable you to squeeze at least some profit out of the seasons ahead. That’s what our yield portfolios are for. When our other stocks are making a lot of money, these quieter recommendations make a little money too. And when the market as a whole loses money, the dividends keep coming.
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Alphabet (GOOG: $1,081, down 4% -- all returns are for the week)
Continuing with our Stocks for Success coverage this week, Alphabet hasn’t been as successful as we’d like (up 3% YTD), but that includes the May dip, which the stock has yet to recover from. We were looking at a 22% YTD return prior to the selloff and continue to believe the stock is a prime buying opportunity as this is one of the most bankable long-term investments in the world.
Alphabet has a lot going for it beyond a monopoly on Search. The company is introducing a video game streaming service called Stadia, which could disrupt the entire gaming industry the way Netflix disrupted Hollywood. Stadia will allow users to play games without the need for a console. Additionally, Alphabet is already testing its Project Soli technology, which allows users to operate smart devices with mere hand gestures (no more tapping or swiping). This has immense implications for the smartphone, tablet and even the burgeoning smart-watch industries.
On the financial front, Alphabet has grown revenue at least 20% per year over the last three years, but in 1Q19 revenue growth came in at 17%. That, coupled with macroeconomic concerns is what tanked the stock. Of course, the market is being hyper-reactionary. 17% growth for a $750 billion company is astounding.
And the deceleration is a blip, not a trend. With YouTube dominating in mobile video streaming (37% market share – next biggest players are Facebook and Snapchat with just over 8%), autonomous vehicle manufacturer Waymo coming online soon, and the aforementioned Stadia and Project Soli set to disrupt major industries, there are simply too many revenue drivers for growth not to spike back up over that 20% mark. Additionally, Alphabet is trading at 5.5x price/sales, and its five-year average is 6.5x. So the stock is less expensive along that metric.
BMR Take: With $115 billion in cash and only $12 billion in debt, Alphabet can afford to get creative moving forward. Of course, management already has so many innovative technologies on the horizon, it might be best to just wait and see which ones live up to – or even exceed – expectations. This is a company that’s so cutting edge Hollywood made a movie about two guys trying to get a job there (The Internship.) Revenue growth will pick back up in no time, and so will the stock. We’re reiterating our $1,450 price target and our ‘would not sell’ position.
NOTE: In our weekly paid subscription Newsletter, we do between 5 and 7 SnapShots and also support regular Research Reports. The last three stocks we recommended are already up 5% apiece. Plus, we have the Weekly High Yield Investor, whereby we discuss the 17 stocks in our High Yield and REIT Portfolios.
And to top it all off, we send News Flashes each day during the week. Got a question about any stock on the market? We'll answer. So if your favorite stock reports earnings or there is significant news, you will hear about it here first. If you want the whole picture, join the thousands of Bull Market Report readers who are making money in the stock market and subscribe here:
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Good Investing,
Todd Shaver, Founder and CEO
The Bull Market Report
Since 1998
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by wilsondigital | Mar 29, 2016 | Research Report, Stocks for Success
Is there anyone in the world who does not know who Google is or what great things they do? The company recently changed its name to Alphabet and that confused more than a few people. But Google is still the dominant search engine in the United States and an online global advertising behemoth...
This content is for our beloved subscribers and anything you see on this page is just an excerpt!
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by admin | Mar 3, 2016 | High Yield, Research Report
NIE has almost always traded at a discount, and that discount has widened to the highest level since 2009. The discount seems to be driven by retail selling, as the fund’s performance, strategy, and outlook haven’t changed at all, and its NAV hasn’t weakened in recent weeks while its stock price has.
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