July 30, 2019
by Scott Martin | Jul 30, 2019 | 7am News Flash
Netflix (NFLX: $362, down 3% earlier this week) disappointed last night and the stock's precipitous overnight decline provides us with a different kind of wake-up call. Whether you're in Netflix or not, you're going to want to read this flash.
On the surface, Netflix delivered a quarter almost entirely in line with what investors told themselves they wanted to see. Revenue of $4.92 billion was only 0.1% below guidance and reflects healthy 26% year-over-year improvement. Even quarter-to-quarter, the company squeezed 9% more cash out of its subscribers than it did three months ago.
Furthermore, despite profit being a lower priority while management invests vast amounts in original content, it was nice to see that Netflix carried $0.60 per share across the bottom line, $0.04 better than we expected.
But the market found fault as Netflix missed its subscriber growth target, losing 126,000 paid U.S. accounts and only adding 2.83 million new viewers overseas. Management told us to expect the audience to grow by an even 5 million accounts, so it's a clear disappointment.
There are some compensating factors like the way revenue hit guidance. Netflix raised prices in many markets and this is apparently where the pain point is. We know that now. Furthermore, management has doubled down on its aggressive growth forecasts and now expects subscriber adds to accelerate again in the current quarter.
We've had it with Netflix. We've warned throughout that it's going to be a volatile ride. The stock is now down 20% since we started covering it this time around, after making 65% back in 2016-17. We're worried about competitors like Disney and Apple starting to crowd into the space. With a negative $3.5 billion of free cash flow this year and next, we'd rather be invested in a company that actually makes money. We hereby remove Netflix from our High Tech portfolio. We added them on July 16th last year. We're gone now on July 18th, 2019.
However, even for a volatile stock, the reaction to so-so numbers was so extreme that we now suspect that the market as a whole is getting overheated. It's not Netflix. It's Wall Street. And an overheated market can lurch lower as fast as it soars. Even counting the stocks that fizzled and left our list under a cloud, the BMR universe is up a dramatic 33% YTD. This is a great time to lock in some of that profit before a moody market can take it away.
Is It Time to Take Some Profits?
Why are we asking this question?We can’t predict the future. You may think we can, but we can’t. And we want YOU to think about where YOU are and where you are going with your investments. We have made some amazing stock picks and we’ve made you a lot of money in many of these. (We’ve had a few losers too.) Roku is now a triple since we added it last year. Shopify is up 350% in two years. Square is another quadruple play. PayPal, Twilio, Paycom, Microsoft, Apple, Visa: all strong performers.
Is it time to take some of that off the table? There are a lot of things to worry about in the world today: Trump, Chinese tariffs, Iran, immigrants, global slowdown, flat earnings for the past quarter and next; negative interest rates in Europe and Japan . . . can they happen here? If so, will the Fed run out of ammunition if short rates go to zero? What about the attacks on Big Tech by Congress and the European Union? Can Facebook, Amazon and Google survive this onslaught? Of course they will, but why sit around with someone hitting you on the head with a hammer. Maybe it’s better to step a little away from the scene.
Lots of questions. No solid answers. Irrational exuberance was proclaimed by Alan Greenspan on December 5, 1996 after an amazing bull run in the preceding few years. But the bull market continued to skyrocket until the Spring of 2000. That’s almost 3½ years after Greenspan’s call. So is it too early to start taking profits now?
Again, we don’t know, but we do know that there are things you can do. You can sell some calls against your stocks. This brings in cash and cushions you on the downside a bit. But if Roku, which was at $32 at the start of the year goes from $110 now to $90 or even lower, it’s not going to cushion you much with $5 of call option income. So perhaps you can take some profits off the table. Maybe you should put some stops in place. Sell some at $104. Sell some shares if it hits $96. Sell some more if it hits $90. Then if it goes to $70, which is a distinct possibility in a nasty bear market, you’ve protected your profits and have cash in the bank.
And don't forget, we’ve got 17 stocks in our High Yield and REIT portfolios that are paying from 3% to 11% dividends. (Be wary of Annaly and New Residential, though.) These stocks are just waiting for you to place some cash in them so that you can sleep better at night.
This content is for our beloved subscribers and anything you see on this page is just an excerpt!
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January 30, 2018
by Todd Shaver | Jan 30, 2018 | Earnings Preview 12 PM
Equity Residential (EQR: $61)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $85
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $55
Earnings Date: Tuesday, After market close
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $625 million
EPS: $0.36
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $605 million
EPS: $0.75
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Equity Residential to report a 3% increase in revenues with a 50% decrease in earnings per share. Despite having beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, the stock is only trading 2% above its price this time last year. Nearly all of the stock’s 15% gains for the year have been wiped out since November with the oversupply issues in the real estate market. We believe the stock is oversold at its current levels, and will see support in the $60 range.
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Eli Lilly (LLY: $86)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $96
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $82
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 9:00 AM ET
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $6.0 billion
EPS: $1.07
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $5.8 billion
EPS: $0.95
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Eli Lilly is expected to report a 3% increase in revenues and a 13% increase in earnings per share for 4Q17. The stock has beat estimates in three of the past four quarters, and is currently trading 17% above its price levels from this time last year. The stock saw a bit of resistance at $86 earlier this year, and it had recently broken through, but with the tough market of the last two days, the stock is back to $86. This pharmaceutical company invests heavily in its research and development, which will drive its future sales and earnings growth.
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Facebook (FB: $186)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $190
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $155
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 5:00 PM ET
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $12.5 billion
EPS: $1.95
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $8.8 billion
EPS: $1.41
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Facebook to report a 42% increase in revenues and a 38% increase in earnings per share for 4Q17. Facebook has beaten estimates in three of the past four quarters which has been reflected in the stock’s 42% appreciation over the past year. Facebook’s growth over the past years has been unprecedented for a company of its size. It truly is adhering to its mission of creating a more connected world. We look forward to seeing what kind of developments CEO Mark Zuckerberg has in store for the connected world in 2018. We know it will be good.
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PayPal Holdings (PYPL: $83)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $87
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell PayPal
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 5:00 PM ET
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $3.6 billion
EPS: $0.52
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $3.0 billion
EPS: $0.42
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
We are looking for a 20% increase in its sales and a 24% increase in its earnings per share for the 4th quarter of 2017. The stock has been on a tear since last year, returning investors a 110% capital appreciation since this time last year. The stock has gone nowhere but up since posting earnings that have exceeded expectations in the past four quarters. PayPal’s market cap is just over $100 billion, making it the largest publicly traded electronic payments company in the world. We look forward to seeing what PayPal has to offer as they continue to lead this growing industry.
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Microsoft (MSFT: $93)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $92
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Microsoft
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 5:30 PM ET
Consensus: 2Q18
Revenues: $28 billion
EPS: $0.86
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $26 billion
EPS: $0.80
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Microsoft is expected to report an 8% increase in revenues and a 7.5% increase in earnings per share for 2Q18. Microsoft’s ability to beat analyst estimates has been reflected in the stock’s 44% increase over the past year. The firm continues to produce high quality hardware and software, and has a very good understanding of their customer base. Microsoft also allocates an incredible amount of capital to research and development, with its most recent announcement being a push into quantum computing, which some say could be similar to the internet revolution in the 1990s.
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Blackstone Group (BX: $36)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $36
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $31
Earnings Date: Thursday, 11:00 AM ET
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $3.3 billion
EPS: $6.43
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $2.8 billion
EPS: $5.25
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Blackstone is expected to report an 18% increase in revenue along with a 22% increase in its earnings per share for 4Q17. Blackstone has exceeded analyst estimates in three of the past four quarters, and has seen its stock appreciate 17% over the past year. Technically speaking, the stock has underperformed both the market and the sector, and we believe this is a huge mispricing by the market. Blackstone currently trades at a PE of 15 and yields 5%. At these price levels the stock looks like a steal compared to its competitors.
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United Parcel Service (UPS: $129)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $125
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $106
Earnings Date: Thursday, Exact Time not Available
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $18 billion
EPS: $1.66
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $17 billion
EPS: $1.63
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect UPS to report a 6% increase in revenues and a 2% increase in earnings per share for 4Q17. Despite beating estimates in three of the past four quarters, the stock has slightly underperformed the overall market. The stock has appreciated 24% since this time last year, and we expect to see similar returns moving forward as the demand for logistical services increases. Although we remain bullish on the stock, we are keeping a close eye on Amazon as it begins to roll out its own logistics services, posing a potential threat to UPS.
The stock has passed our Target of $125, and we believe the stock will go higher, as long as the market holds here and moves higher in the coming months. We hereby raise our Target to $142 and our Sell Price to $118.
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Alphabet (GOOG: $1,170)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $1,450
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Google
Earnings Date: Thursday, 4:30 PM ET
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $32 billion
EPS: $10.00
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $26 billion
EPS: $9.36
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
We are looking for a 31% increase in revenues and a 7% increase in earnings per share for 1Q18. The company has beaten estimates in three of the past four quarters, which has been reflected in the stock’s 45% appreciation since this time last year. The stock currently boasts a market cap of $815 billion, making it one of the largest publicly traded companies in the world. Although Alphabet is best known for its Google Search Engine, the company touches all aspects of technology from cloud computing to its most recent Television Streaming service through YouTube.
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Apple (AAPL: $165)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $194
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Apple
Earnings Date: Thursday, 5:00 PM ET
Consensus: 1Q18
Revenues: $87 billion
EPS: $3.81
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $78 billion
EPS: $3.36
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
We expect to see a 13% increase in earnings per share along with an 11% increase in sales for 1Q18, despite less than ideal results with the release of the iPhone X. The stock has beaten estimates in each of the past four quarters, and has appreciated 38% since this time last year. We also saw Warren Buffet add more stock to his portfolio, which should definitely not be overlooked. We expect to see growth in iPhone and iPad sale over the next year, and remain bullish on the stock. The cash repatriation should begin soon and that will produce some changes – in the dividend and in their outlook on buying new technology firms.
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Visa (V: $123)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $123
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Visa
Earnings Date: Thursday, 5:30 PM ET
Consensus: 1Q18
Revenues: $4.8 billion
EPS: $0.99
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $4.4 billion
EPS: $0.86
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Visa is expected to report a 9% increase in revenues and a 15% increase in earnings per share for 1Q18. Visa has beaten estimates in each of the past four quarters, and seen a 50% appreciation in its stock since this time last year. Despite paying a relatively small dividend, the stock still trades at a PE of 44, suggesting it is fairly valued compared to its competitors. We are confident in Visa’s ability to drive earnings growth through the new year. This $280 billion market cap company is a long term hold.
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Amazon (AMZN: $1,420)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $1,500
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $1,225
Earnings Date: Thursday, 5:30 PM ET
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $60 billion
EPS: $1.84
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $44 billion
EPS: $1.54
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Amazon to report a 36% increase in revenues and a 19% increase in earnings per share for 4Q17. Despite having only beaten estimates in three of the past four quarters, the stock currently trades 70% higher than its levels this time last year. Amazon continues to lead the charge in the online retail space, and we firmly believe in the longevity of the firm. Although the company trades at a very high PE of 350, we believe this is explained by the company’s inherent ability dominate and revolutionize the Retail industry.
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AstraZeneca (AZN: $36)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $42
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $32
Earnings Date: Friday, exact time not available
Consensus: 4Q17
Revenues: $5.4 billion
EPS: $0.45
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $5.6 billion
EPS: $0.61
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
AstraZeneca is expected to report a 4% decrease in revenues and a 26% decrease in earnings per share for 4Q17. Despite the lack of top line growth, the stock has still managed to beat analyst estimates in each of the past four quarters, and has shown 30% year-over-year appreciation as a result. The stock currently trades at a PE of 26, which is relatively cheap compared to other firms in healthcare which average around 40. The stock pays a 4% dividend, and has room to grow in 2018.
We’re not liking this new development with a slowdown in revenues and earnings and are re-evaluating our take on this stock. More to come this weekend. In the meantime, we are moving our Sell Price to $34.
October 23, 2017
by Todd Shaver | Oct 23, 2017 | Earnings Preview 12 PM
Eli Lilly (LLY: $88)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $88
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $76
Earnings Date: Tuesday, 9:00 AM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $5.5 billion
EPS: $1.03
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $5.2 billion
EPS: $0.88
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Eli Lilly is expected to report a 17% increase in earnings per share and a 5% increase in revenues for 3Q17. This moderate growth in revenues accompanied by a strong growth in EPS indicates a reduction of the firm’s costs. Although Lilly has only beaten analyst estimates in two of the past four quarters, the stock still trades up 12% since this time last year. By cutting costs in SG&A Eli Lilly has freed up capital for R&D, which will help drive future sales and contribute to the company’s prolonged growth.
Our Target has been reached, so we hereby raise it to $96.
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Equity Residential (EQR: $66)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $85
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $55
Earnings Date: Tuesday, 4:00 PM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $620 million
EPS: $0.33
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $605 million
EPS: $0.56
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Equity Residential to report a 2% increase in revenues and a 41% decrease in earnings per share for 3Q17. The stock has beaten estimates in each of the past four quarters, and has still managed to appreciate 8% over the past year. This is most likely a result of the shrinking of the company’s earnings over the past two years. The stock is currently trading 4% off its 52-week high and has been trading with lower volume than it did in the beginning of the year, indicating it could be oversold.
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Visa (V: $107)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $110
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Visa
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $4.6 billion
EPS: $0.85
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $4.2 billion
EPS: $0.78
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts estimate Visa will report a 9% increase in revenues and a 9% increase in earnings per share for 3Q17. Visa has surpassed estimates in each of the past four quarters, contributing to the stock’s 30% appreciation since this time last year. Visa has seen significant increase in sales over the past few years and we expect this growth to continue as consumers shift from cash to online and credit card payments.
How’s this for a nice looking chart over the past five years? Where would you say it is headed?
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United Parcel Service (UPS: $120)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $125
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $106
Earnings Date: Thursday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $15.6 billion
EPS: $1.45
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $15.0 billion
EPS: $1.44
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
UPS is expected to report a 4% increase in revenues and no change in earnings per share for 3Q17. Despite only having beaten estimates in two of the past four quarters, the stock has still managed to climb 10% since this time last year and is currently trading 16% above its 52-week low. Companies like UPS and FedEx are perfectly positioned to benefit from the growing trend of online shopping. Growth in e-commerce has been accelerating over the past few years, up 16% from 2016 alone, and shows no signs of slowing down. The stock currently yields 2.75% making it a good investment for investors who are seeking both growth and income.
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Celgene (CELG: $123)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $150
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $125
Earnings Date: Thursday, 9:00 AM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $3.4 billion
EPS: $1.87
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $3.0 billion
EPS: $1.58
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Celgene is expected to report a 13% increase in sales and a 18% increase in earnings per share for 3Q17. The stock has beaten analyst estimates in each of the past four quarters and was up nearly 50% this year until recent weeks when it announced that it would not continue to phase 3 trials for its Crohn’s disease drug. The stock pulled back 17% on the announcement and opened a window of opportunity for investors who felt the stock was overbought at its previous levels. Celgene continues to invest heavily in R&D and we expect it will continue to produce growing sales with the rest of its pipeline.
The stock is below our Sell Price and we covered Celgene in our report that went out Sunday evening the 22nd. Please review for our thoughts on the stock.
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Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY: $64)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $77
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $51
Earnings Date: Thursday, 10:30 AM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $5.2 billion
EPS: $0.77
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $5.0 billion
EPS: $0.77
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts estimate that Bristol Meyers will report a slight 4% increase in sales and no change in earnings per share for 3Q17. Bristol has beaten estimates in three of the past four quarters, contributing to the stock’s 30% gain over the past year. The company generates about 30% of its revenues from oncology related drugs, and we expect the stock to continue growing as it gains more market share.
We hereby raise our Sell Price from $51 to $59.
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Alphabet (GOOG: $978)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $1100
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Alphabet
Earnings Date: Thursday, 4:30 PM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $27 billion
EPS: $8.33
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $22 billion
EPS: $9.06
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts estimate that Alphabet will report a 22% increase in revenues and an 8% decrease in earnings per share for 3Q17. The stock is up 21% over the past, which has been driven by its ability to beat analyst estimates in three of the past four quarters and to grow revenues and earnings. Alphabet’s institutional owners have been increasing their positions in the company over the past six months by 3%, indicating they believe in the long-term success of the business. Alphabet has recently released new products that have put pressure on some of the largest tech companies like Apple and Samsung.
Our Price Target is $1000, but we think somehow that has been an uncorrected error and we believe it was and should be $1100. Thus we hereby make the change. The all-time high is $997 set just last week, and if the stock market remains stable, we expect to see the stock blow through $1000 and move significantly higher by the end of the year.
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First Solar (FSLR: $49)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $55
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $39
Earnings Date: Thursday, 4:30 PM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $800 million
EPS: $0.85
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $ 690 million
EPS: $1.22
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
While First Solar is expected to increase its revenues by 15%, analysts estimate that earnings per share will decrease by 30% for 3Q17. The stock has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters. We expect First Solar to continue with its positive performance as the year ends and on into 2018 as well.
This has been a long slog with this firm. We have been patient and have stuck with it and now the stock is moving up to where it belongs. This is a great company management is on the right path and the firm is certainly in the right business.
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Amazon (AMZN: $972)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $1,100
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $900
Earnings Date: Thursday, 5:30 AM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $42 billion
EPS: $0.52
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $33 billion
EPS: $0.03
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Amazon is expected to report a 27% increase in sales and a 94% decrease in earnings per share for 3Q17. We expect this large reduction in EPS is from the company’s increased spending on R&D, which should pay off with large revenue increases down the road. Despite having only beaten estimates in two of the past four quarters, the stock is still up 17% since last year. In each of the two quarters it missed, the stock pulled back no more than 5% and provided investors with an entry opportunity. With the firm’s continued domination of e-commerce, we remain bullish on Amazon here at The Bull Market Report.
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Microsoft (MSFT: $79)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $84
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Microsoft
Earnings Date: Thursday, 5:30 PM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $23 billion
EPS: $0.72
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $22 billion
EPS: $0.72
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect that Microsoft will report a 4.5% increase in sales and no change in earnings per share for 3Q17. The stock has climbed 30% over the past year, especially having beaten estimates in each of the past four quarters. Microsoft is another great investment for those seeking both growth and income. The stock has appreciated 180% over the past five years while paying out a 2% dividend. In addition to improving product sales, Microsoft has made a number of upgrades on its Windows operating system, driving growth over the years.
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Ventas (VTR: $63)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $82
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $61
Earnings Date: Friday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $880 million
EPS: $0.45
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $865 million
EPS: $0.42
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Ventas is expected to report a slight 2% increase in revenues and a 7% increase in earnings per share for 3Q17. Despite having beaten estimates in three of the past four quarters, the stock is down 8% since last year. With most of its properties focused in senior housing and healthcare facilities, Ventas’s long-term growth looks very positive. Ventas owns a highly diversified portfolio of nearly 1,300 seniors housing and healthcare properties in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The underperformance of the stock has given investors the opportunity to enter into this high dividend yielding (5%) growth stock.
July 26, 2017
by Todd Shaver | Jul 26, 2017 | Earnings Preview 6 AM
We are a shade late this week. We had computer and internet issues. Sorry.
Alphabet (GOOG: $954)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $1000
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Alphabet
Earnings Date: Monday, 4:00 PM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $26 billion
EPS: $5.01
Alphabet reported a heavy drop in 2Q17 EPS due to the $2.7 billion fine from the European antitrust regulators. Shares currently trade down about 3% as the company missed expectations on its cost per click which rose by 23%. We are still bullish on Alphabet as they continue to innovate and bring to market new technologies like their most recent Google Home.
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Eli Lilly (LLY: $82)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $88
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $76
Earnings Date: Tuesday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $5.4 B
EPS: $1.05
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $5.5 B
EPS: $0.86
Lilly reported yesterday with revenues up 8% and earnings up a powerful 22% to $1.11. Despite having missed estimates in two of the past four quarters, the stock is up 3% since this time last year and is currently trading 28% above its 52-week-low. Like other companies in our portfolios, Eli Lilly is also trading relatively cheap in comparison to the overall industry. Eli’s PE is 40 while Healthcare industry PE is around 60.
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Equity Residential (EQR: $66)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $85
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $55
Earnings Date: Tuesday, 4:00 PM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $610 M
EPS: $0.35
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $595 M
EPS: $0.59
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
The company reported yesterday that it had net income of $195 million, or 53 cents per share, well above the Street estimate. Revenues came in at $613 million. Although Equity Residential has beaten estimates in the past four quarters, the stock still trades down 5% from this time last year. However, EQR is trading 13% above its 52-week low indicating positive investor sentiment within the Real Estate industry. The stock currently trades at a PE ratio of 20, relatively low compared to the industry’s PE of 40.
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PayPal (PYPL: $58)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $56
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell PayPal
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 11:00 AM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $3.1 B
EPS: $0.43
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $2.7 B
EPS: $0.36
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts across Wall Street expect that PayPal will report a healthy 16% growth in EPS to $0.36 and a 14% increase in revenue to $3.1 billion. PayPal has either met or beaten estimates in each of the past four quarters. This success has contributed to the 55% appreciation in the stock since this same time last year. We expect PayPal to continue its top line growth as more transactions shift away from cash and onto digital platforms.
PayPal has hit our Target of $56. We still love the company and expect big things in the future. We hereby raise our Price Target to $66, and maintain our Sell Price as “We would not sell PayPal.”
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Facebook (FB: $165)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $165
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $140
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 4:00 PM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $9.2 B
EPS: $1.12
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $6.4 B
EPS: $0.97
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts across Wall Street expect that Facebook will report strong EPS growth of 15% growth to $0.97 and a 30% increase in revenue to $9.2 billion. Despite having missed estimates last quarter, Facebook’s stock has climbed 36% since this time last year. In addition to the flagship Facebook.com, Zuckerberg has been innovating through his various offerings which include WhatsApp, Instagram, and Oculus Virtual Reality. We expect Facebook will continue to thrive as it tries to connect people throughout the world.
Facebook has hit our Target of $165. We added the stock at $97 a year and half ago and have been beating the drums every chance we get. We are still beating the drums. This company is amazing and is changing the world. We hereby raise our Target Price to $178 and raise the Sell Price from $140 to $155.
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Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI: $33)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $45
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $28
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 4:00 PM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $235 M
EPS: $0.49
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $185 M
EPS: $0.57
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts estimate that Omega will report a 20% increase in revenue to $235 million and a 14% decrease in EPS to $0.49. Although Omega beat estimates in three of the past four quarters, the stock is down 6% this past year. This price depreciation has provided investors with an opportunity for entry especially as the stock only trades at a PE of 16 compared to the industry average of 60.
The stock hasn’t gone anywhere in a year, but that’s OK as we love the almost 8% dividend it pays.
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CBRE (CBG: $38)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $40
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $32
Earnings Date: Thursday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $3.4 B
EPS: $0.53
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $3.2 B
EPS: $0.52
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
CBRE is expected to report moderate revenue and EPS growth for 1Q17. Analysts estimate that CBRE will report a 6% increase in revenue to $3.4 billion and a 2% increase in EPS to $0.53. The firm reported earnings that beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and provided investors with a 31% return year-over-year. CBRE’s stock currently trades at a PE ratio of 20, which is extremely cheap compared to the industry’s average PE of 91.
We love this one and can’t wait for it to hit $40 so we can raise the Target. The company is doing amazing things in real estate, saving companies money and manpower, and they are so low-key very few investors know about the firm. The market cap is a shade under $13 billion now, and this coming weekend we will give you some examples of what they do for their customers and why $38 for this stock will seem cheap in a year. We hereby raise the Sell Price from $32 to $35. We don’t want to lose the 48% gains we have in the stock since we added it at $26 last year.
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United Parcel Service (UPS: $113)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $125
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $106
Earnings Date: Thursday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $15.5 B
EPS: $1.47
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $14.6 B
EPS: $1.43
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
UPS is expected to report moderate revenue and EPS growth for 2Q17. Analysts estimate that UPS will report a 5% increase in revenue to $15.5 billion and a 3% increase in EPS to $1.47. The firm reported mixed earnings in the last four quarters. Having only beat estimates once, the stock has underperformed the market at a mere 2% increase. It currently trades at a PE ratio of 28, which is slightly high compared to its competitors in the 25 range.
We still like the company a lot, as they have to deliver all those packages from Amazon! We are maintaining our Price Target of $125.
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Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY: $56)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $77
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $51
Earnings Date: Thursday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $5.1 B
EPS: $0.73
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $4.9 B
EPS: $0.69
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Bristol Myers is expected to report moderate revenue and EPS growth for 2Q17. Analysts estimate that Bristol will report a 4% increase in revenue to $5.1 billion and a 6% increase in EPS to $0.73. Although Bristol Myer beat estimates in three of the past four quarters, the stock is down over 25% this past year. This price depreciation has provided investors with cheaper opportunities for entry especially as the stock only trades at a PE of 20 compared to the industry average of 60.
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Celgene (CELG: $137)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $135
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $115
Earnings Date: Thursday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $3.2 B
EPS: $1.78
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $2.8 B
EPS: $1.44
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts across Wall Street expect that Celgene will report both strong revenue and EPS growth of 15% and 24% to $3.2 billion and $1.44 respectively. while Amazon will increase its revenues by 19% to $37 billion, it will decrease its EPS nearly 20% to $1.42. Amazon has beat estimates in all of the past 4 quarters and has helped return investors 27% since this time last year. Celgene still only trades at a PE ratio of 50, making it relatively cheap compared to the industry’s PE of 60.
Since June at $114, the stock has gone straight up. It has reached our Target of $135, but we still love this huge company ($107 billion market cap,) so we hereby raise our Price Target to $150 and raise our Sell Price from $115 to $125. We added the stock at $95 a year ago and are now up 44% as it just set a new all-time high last week. Lovin’ it.
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Amazon (AMZN: $1,040 – a new all-time high)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $1,100
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $875
Earnings Date: Thursday, 4:00 PM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $37 B
EPS: $1.42
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $30 B
EPS: $1.78
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Wall Street expects that while Amazon will increase its revenues by 19% to $37 billion, it will show a decrease in EPS of nearly 20% to $1.42. Amazon has beat estimates in three the past four quarters and has helped carry many tech heavy indices. Amazon traded at $765 this time last year and has since climbed over 35% to its current levels. This past Prime Day, Amazon’s version of Black Friday, the company broke its own record for the largest online shopping day in history.
We are keeping the Target Price at $1100, but raise our Sell Price to $970 from $875.
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First Solar (FSLR: $45)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $55
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $28
Earnings Date: Thursday, 4:00 PM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $540 M
EPS: $0.10
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $935 M
EPS: $0.87
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
This company is regrouping, as we know, and the comparisons are not pretty. Analysts estimate that First Solar will report a decrease in revenues by 43% to $540 million and an 88% decrease in EPS to $0.10. Although First Solar has beat estimates in the past four quarters, the stock is down 5% this year.
The stock is inching its way back, little by little. We certainly had bad timing on the addition of the stock to our Special Opportunities portfolio last year in February, but we are believers in the business and the company and have had amazing patience with this one. We hereby raise the Sell Price from $28 to $39.
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Ventas (VTR: $68)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $82
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $43
Earnings Date: Friday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $880 M
EPS: $0.44
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $850 M
EPS: $0.42
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Wall Street expects that Ventas will report moderate EPS growth of 7% to $0.45 and a 4% increase in revenue to $880 million. Although the firm has beat estimates in the past four quarters, its stock is down 8% over the past year. The company’s 5% dividend and relatively cheap PE of 35 make it an attractive stock in today’s markets. This is not a small company, as the market cap of $25 billion tells us.
We hereby raise our Sell Price from $43 to $61.
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Welltower (HCN: $73)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $84
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $60
Earnings Date: Friday, 8:00 AM ET
Consensus: 2Q17
Revenues: $1 B
EPS: $0.44
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $1 B
EPS: $0.54
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts estimate that Welltower will report no change in revenues at $1 billion and a 18% decrease in EPS to $0.44. Although Welltower has beat estimates in the past 4 quarters, its stock is down 7% this past year. This move has provided investors with cheaper opportunities for entry especially as the stock continues to pay a 5% dividend and trades at a PE that is 25% lower than its industry’s.
We hereby raise the Sell Price from $60 to $68.
April 24, 2017
by Todd Shaver | Apr 24, 2017 | Earnings Preview 6 PM
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY: $83)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $88
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $76
Earnings Date: Tuesday, 9:00 am ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $5.2 B
EPS: $0.96
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $4.9 B
EPS: $0.83
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Eli Lilly to report a 7% increase in revenues to $5.2 billion and a 16% increase in EPS to $0.96 for 1Q17. Despite Eli Lilly only beating estimates in the second quarter of 2016, the stock has climbed 5% since last year. It is currently trading 30% above its 1-year low of $64, and at a 31 P/E is relatively low compared to the industry average of 60. Eli Lilly also offers its shareholders a 2.5% dividend.
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Equity Residential (EQR: $64)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $85
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $55
Earnings Date: Tuesday, After market close - exact time unavailable
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $605 M
EPS: $0.30
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $615 M
EPS: $9.84
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Equity Residential to report a 2% decrease in revenues to $605 million and a 97% decrease in EPS to $0.30. The stock has fallen 10% over the past year, however this just provides cheaper opportunities for entry. Equity Residential currently trades at a P/E ratio of 5, which is extremely low compared to the REIT industry. Equity Residential pays a 3% dividend and is trading 12% under its 52-week high.
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PayPal (PYPL: $44)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $48
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell PayPal
Earnings Date: Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $3.0B
EPS: $0.41
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $2.5B
EPS: $0.37
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts estimate that PayPal will report a 20% increase in revenue to $3.0 billion and an 11% increase in EPS to $0.41 for 1Q17. In this same quarter, last year PayPal beat estimates, however the stock still fell about 3% in the few weeks following the earnings release. PayPal came through for its shareholders in the last three quarters of 2016 as shares climbed nearly 20% after 1Q16. Analysts are optimistic about PayPal’s most recent announcement, to partner with Visa in order to accelerate the adoption of digital and mobile payments across Asia Pacific, as a major driver of future growth.
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CBRE Group (CBG: $34)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $40
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $32
Earnings Date: Thursday, 08:30 AM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $3.0 B
EPS: $0.34
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $2.9 B
EPS: $0.36
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Wall Street expects CBRE Group to report a 3% increase in revenues to $3.0 billion and a 6% decrease in EPS to $0.34. As a global force in the real estate market, CBRE has greatly benefited from the appreciation commercial office buildings over the past few years. The stock has provided investors with a 15% return over the past year alone. CBRE beat analyst estimates in all four quarters of 2016. CBRE is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 20, relatively in the REIT world.
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United Parcel Service (UPS: $106)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $125
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $97
Earnings Date: Thursday, exact time unavailable
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $1.1B
EPS: -$0.04
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $1.0 B
EPS: $0.04
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analyst estimates suggest that United Parcel Service will report a 10% increase in sales to $1.1 billion and a loss in EPS of $0.04 per share for 1Q17. UPS beat analyst estimates in the first three quarters of 2016, but missed in the fourth. As a result, the stock dropped over 10% following the 4Q16 earnings announcement. The stock has remained relatively unchanged over the past year. We are confident that the stock’s consistent 3.2% dividend will attract investors who are looking for a healthy yield as an alternative to the fixed income markets, as well as great potential for growth.
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Athenahealth (ATHN: $118)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $125
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $113 (changed today from $105)
Earnings Date: Thursday before the market opens
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $300 M
EPS: $0.47
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $255 M
EPS: $.34
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts estimate that Athenahealth will report significant growth in both revenues and EPS for 1Q17. Sales are expected to increase by 16% to $300 million and EPS are expected to increase by 38% to $0.47. Athena beat analyst estimates in three of the past four quarters, but the stock is up from the $103 level when we added the stock to our Healthcare Portfolio in November. We remain bullish as Athena continues to bring on renowned medical professionals to its board.
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Celgene (CELG: $123)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $135
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $115
Earnings Date: Thursday, 09:00 AM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $3.0 B
EPS: $1.63
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $2.5 B
EPS: $1.32
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Wall Street analysts estimate that Celgene will report a healthy increase of both sales (21% to $3.0 billion) and EPS (23% to $1.63) for 1Q17. Celgene has consistently beat estimates in the past four quarters pushing the stock up 10% over the past year. Celgene’s four best-selling drugs are all patent-protected in the U.S. until at least 2024, which provides long-term growth potential. Management expects revenue to nearly double by 2020, as it is expected to exceed $21 billion. We are excited to follow Celgene’s growth through the turn of the decade.
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Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY: $54)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $77
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $51
Earnings Date: Thursday, 10:30 AM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $4.7B
EPS: $0.73
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $4.4B
EPS: $0.74
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Bristol-Myers Squibb to report an 8% increase in sales to $4.7 billion and a slight 1% decrease in EPS to $0.73. The stock has come back nicely from its low in January of $48. The firm continues to produce a 3% dividend and provides a good opportunity of entry as the stock only trades at a P/E ratio of 20.
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Alphabet (GOOG: $857)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $900
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Alphabet
Earnings Date: Thursday, 1:30 PM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $24 B
EPS: $7.40
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $20 B
EPS: $7.50
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
The stock set a new all-time today of $859. Wall Street analysts expect Alphabet, the parent company of Google, to report a 20% increase in sales to $24 billion and a slight 1% decrease in EPS to $7.40. Although Alphabet only beat estimates in two of the four quarters in 2016, the stock still climbed nearly 17% over the past year. Google has made a number of developments this past quarter. YouTube, one of Google’s many subsidiaries, released YouTube TV, which offers customers 40 channels for only $35/month. We look forward to watching Alphabet grow as a result of its supportive firm culture and stellar leadership with CEO Larry Page at the helm.
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Microsoft (MSFT: $67)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $70
Bull Market Report Sell Price: We would not sell Microsoft
Earnings Date: Thursday, 2:30 PM ET
Consensus: 3Q17
Revenues: $24 B
EPS: $0.70
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $22 B
EPS: $0.62
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Microsoft set a new all-time today at $67. Analysts expect Microsoft to report a 7% increase in revenues to $24 billion and a 13% increase in EPS to $0.70 for 3Q17. Microsoft missed first quarter estimates in 2016, and the stock fell nearly 4% in the weeks following the earnings announcement. This small hiccup was made up for as the stock has climbed 27% over the past year. A few quarters back, Microsoft and Facebook teamed up to build a transatlantic cable, providing its customers in Europe and Asia with better connections to their services.
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Amazon (AMZN: $909)
Bull Market Report Target Price: $1,000
Bull Market Report Sell Price: $875, changed today from $800
Earnings Date: Thursday, 2:30 PM ET
Consensus: 1Q17
Revenues: $35 B
EPS: $1.13
Year Ago Quarter Results
Revenues: $29 B
EPS: $1.07
Key Things to Watch For in the Quarter
Analysts expect Amazon to report a 22% increase in revenues to $35 billion and a 6% increase in EPS to $1.07 for 1Q17. Amazon beat estimates in 1Q16 and the stock climbed 20% in the weeks following the earnings release. Last year was one of the firm’s most successful, providing shareholders with a 43% return. Amazon currently trades at a 180 P/E ratio and is trading 50% above its 52-week low. We know the PE is insane, but it has been insane since the mid-90s when the company was founded. Analysts are bullish on Amazon as it continues to be the bane of the Retail industry. According to the Wall Street Journal, “U.S. Retailers are currently on pace to close the most stores (4,000) in more than a decade,” showing the effect of Amazon’s footprint.
