THE BULL MARKET REPORT for June 3, 2024

by Scott Martin | Jun 2, 2024 | Weekly Newsletter 7pm Sunday

Market Summary

The Bull Market Report

The last two weeks were a tale of one stock. We spent a few days waiting for NVIDIA (NVDA) to release its quarterly results, leaving Wall Street almost literally breathless in the meantime. Then we watched money crowd into NVIDIA after the SEC filing, swelling the stock to lofty levels ($2.7 trillion, more than the entire German market). And finally, investors tired of scrutinizing this AI giant found a distraction in the form of a potentially threatening uptick in bond yields. We're happy we have NVIDIA in our High Technology portfolio. It's already soared close to 140% in the last six months for us.

But we'll never be satisfied with exposure to just one stock, no matter how strong it is in the moment. If that were the case, we'd have cut everything but Apple (AAPL) or Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) long ago, and had to live with the day-to-day consequences of that decision. In our world, a balanced portfolio of themes will win in the end. When Technology is triumphant, we have plenty of those stocks scattered around our universe. When Silicon Valley hits a wall, our Financials or Energy or Real Estate holdings tend to benefit as the pendulum of sentiment swings in their favor. And throughout the cycle, our High Yield recommendations keep paying dividends.

How has that paid out for us in the last two weeks? NVIDIA obviously did extremely well on its own, but its success sucked all the air out of the Technology portfolio and cut big holes into our results in the Stocks For Success and Long-Term Growth portfolios as well. Only mighty Apple managed to rise above the tide on the Stocks For Success side. First Solar (FSLR) was an absolute triumph and helped buoy Long-Term Growth. See below.

What's more interesting is the way the Early Stage recommendations were split between a 12% gain in the past two weeks for C3.ai (AI) and a 12% loss from Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX), leaving the portfolio neutral for the period. A lot of our portfolios sat out the NVIDIA cycle close to neutral. This was a non-event as far as they were concerned. Now that Wall Street's attention has moved on, we expect them to recover their momentum and get back to work.

For now, this was a "rebuilding" period for our stocks. The Dow Industrials lost more ground but the Nasdaq, overweight NVIDIA as it is, held up better than the BMR universe in the aggregate. That's okay. Ordinarily our "equal weight" system for accounting for our performance plays out in our favor. This time, the single standout name was so strong (and nearly everything else was so tentative) that only portfolios that were heavily concentrated in NVIDIA managed to do well. One way or another, earnings season is over. It was a good one. We can afford to let the AI giant hog the spotlight. After all, we own it too.

In our view, bond yields are a sideshow. They sting, but the real story is what the Fed said two weeks ago. It's going to take serious pain in the Treasury market to feed back into our stocks. And get serious: that kind of pain in the Treasury market is not going to entice smart investors to pull their money out of stocks and flood into the "safety" of bonds paying less than 5% a year. That kind of pain is not enticing. It's scary. And it feeds on itself. Stocks like ours may even look defensive in that scenario. But in our view, the scenario is unlikely. The bond market corrects itself. When yields are attractive to the people who want bonds, you'll know. Otherwise, we focus on stocks.

There's always a bull market here at The Bull Market Report. With earnings season on the books, The Big Picture tackles the question of whether stocks have gotten ahead of their growth rates, while The Bull Market High Yield Investor sets the scene for the next Fed meeting  And as always, we can't resist updating you on our latest thoughts on our favorite recommendations.

Key Market Indicators

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The Big Picture: Record Earnings, Record Stocks

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BMR Companies and Commentary

C3.ai (AI: $30, up 23% last week)
Early Stage Portfolio

Enterprise AI company C3.ai released its fourth-quarter results last week, reporting $87 million in revenue, up 20% YoY, compared to $72 million a year ago. The company posted a loss of $14 million, or $0.11 per share, against $15 million, or $0.13, with a beat on estimates on the top and bottom lines, coupled with robust guidance for the new year bringing much-needed glad tidings for investors.

For the full year, the company posted $310 million in revenue, up 16% YoY, compared to $270 million a year ago, with a loss of $56 million, or $0.47, against $46 million, or $0.42. With demand for enterprise AI solutions continuing to intensify across industries, the company exceeded the top end of its guidance for the full year as well. It marked its fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth.

During the quarter, the company signed 47 new agreements, including 32 new pilots, with marquee clients such as ExxonMobil, General Mills, BASF Petronas, and the US Navy, among others. This has resulted in subscription revenues rising 41% YoY, constituting 92% of its total revenue, giving the company much-needed stability and certainty regarding its cash flow position going forward.

C3’s focus on expanding its partner network has paid off well, with 91 of the 115 agreements closed last year from companies such as AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. The qualified opportunity pipeline with the partner network grew a huge 63% YoY. The company received a blockbuster response for its GenAI offerings, with 50,000 inquiries coming from 3,000 businesses during the fourth quarter; alone.

Some thoughts:

C3.ai's future holds promise, but it's definitely on the speculative side of the AI industry. Here's a breakdown of their potential and competition where it fits into the landscape of the AI revolution:

Strengths:

• Focus on Enterprise Applications: Unlike some AI companies targeting broad consumer markets, C3.ai focuses on developing enterprise-grade AI solutions for specific industries like manufacturing, energy, and healthcare. This targeted approach allows them to cater to specific needs and potentially achieve faster adoption.
• C3 AI Suite: Their core product, the C3 AI Suite, offers a comprehensive platform for developing, deploying, and managing AI applications. This can be attractive to businesses looking for an all-in-one solution.
• Partnerships: C3.ai has established partnerships with major technology players like Microsoft and Google. This gives them a leg up in terms of access to resources and market reach.

Challenges and Competition:

• Emerging Market: The enterprise AI market is still evolving, and it's not guaranteed that its approach will be the most successful in the long run. They face competition from established tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon (AWS), and IBM, all with significant resources and cloud computing expertise.

Profitability: C3.ai is not yet profitable, and it's unclear how quickly they can achieve profitability in this competitive landscape

The best choice for you depends on your risk tolerance and specific investment goals. The company offers a potentially high reward but also carries a higher risk due to the competitive landscape and its unproven track record of profitability.

The stock has had a fairly volatile year so far, but the recent rally following its fourth-quarter results has put it firmly in the green. As of now, the company is focused on growth, giving profitability a pass, but a pole position in the potentially $1 trillion enterprise AI market will ultimately will make it worthwhile. The company has sound financials, with $750 million in cash, and no debt. Our Target for this very speculative high-flyer is $50 with the Sell Price at $24. We added the stock at $22 in 2023, so we are up 34%. But is it worth the anguish or the volatility? Only YOU can decide that!

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The Trade Desk (TTD: $93, down 2%)
High Technology Portfolio

Pioneering ad tech company The Trade Desk released its first quarter results recently, reporting $490 million in revenue, up 28% YoY, compared to $380 million a year ago. It produced a profit of $130 million, or $0.26 per share, compared to $110 million, or $0.23, with a beat on consensus estimates on the top and bottom lines, coupled with an upbeat forecast for the second quarter. We are impressed by the profitability level – 27% after tax. That’s up there with some of the greatest companies in the market, like Apple, Google and Facebook.

During the quarter, the company was aided by continued penetration of connected TVs, with industry giants such as Disney, NBC Universal, and Roku making deeper pivots into this segment. This comes as the company’s UID2*, its alternative to the aging browser cookies, as it becomes more and more ubiquitous across the open internet, resulting in robust value for advertisers, and undeniably strong moats for Trade Desk. Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) is a non-proprietary, open standard accessible to constituents across the advertising ecosystem. It enables advertisers, agencies, ad technology companies, and ad publishers selling advertising to interoperate together in advertising workflows. The company struck a string of new collaborations and partnerships with its UID2 during the quarter, starting with Times Internet, a leading media conglomerate in India, followed by satellite TV giant, Dish Media, along with TF1 and M6, two of the largest broadcasters in France. As a result, the platform now has access to ad inventory in over 11,000 destinations across connected TV, display, mobile, and audio.

The Trade Desk isn't just another ad network; it provides a self-service, cloud-based platform for ad buyers. This platform allows businesses and agencies to plan, manage, and optimize their advertising campaigns across various channels and devices. Here's what makes them special:

• Independent and Open Platform: Unlike some ad networks that prioritize their own inventory, The Trade Desk offers an independent platform with access to a vast marketplace of ad inventory. This gives ad buyers more control and flexibility in reaching their target audience.
• Data-Driven Targeting: The Trade Desk leverages data and analytics to help ad buyers target specific audiences with greater precision. This can lead to more effective and efficient advertising campaigns.
• Programmatic Bidding: They automate the ad buying process, allowing advertisers to bid on ad impressions in real-time based on pre-defined criteria. This can help them secure better ad placements at more competitive prices.

Why They Are Leaders:

• Focus on Innovation: The Trade Desk is constantly innovating and developing new features to stay ahead of the curve in the fast-evolving advertising landscape.
• Transparency & Control: They prioritize transparency and control for advertisers. This builds trust and encourages long-term partnerships.
• Global Reach: The Trade Desk operates in a global marketplace, giving advertisers access to a vast audience.

The Trade Desk has strong secular tailwinds in its favor within the digital advertising market, which stood at $600 billion in 2023, expected to rise to over $870 billion by 2027. Global streaming giants are doubling down on advertising: Netflix with its 40 million ad-tier subscribers and Disney+ have already announced partnerships with the company to monetize their massive ad inventory.

The stock had a phenomenal year in 2023, up 60%, which has been extended this year with a YTD rally of 31%. While the valuation is anything but cheap, at 22 times sales and 120 times earnings, the massive addressable market and an impressive compound annual growth rate of 32% largely make up for it. The company ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in cash, just $240 million in debt, and $600 million in cash flow. Our Target is $100 and our Sell Price is $64. We’re raising both to $120 and $84 respectively. The stock hit $97 two weeks ago, not quite a new all-time high, as that was set in 2021 at $114. But we can see that number being broken later this year if the market holds steady and moves higher. If not, that is why we have such a tight stop. No matter how good a company is, if the overall market tanks hard, it will bring these high flyers down with it. Revenues are great – moving from $840 million in 2020 to $1.2 billion, to $1.6 billion to $1.95 billion in 2023. What worries us the most, is its low level of profitability. Watch this one closely.

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Workday (WDAY: $211, up 4%)
TERMINATING COVERAGE

Workday, a leading financial and human capital management solutions provider, released its first quarter results last week, reporting $2.0 billion in revenue, up 18% YoY, compared to $1.7 billion a year ago. It posted a profit of $103 million, or $0.38 per share, against -$10 million, or $0. The company beat on consensus estimates but lowered full-year guidance a bit. See below.

As always, subscription revenues led the way at $1.8 billion, up 19% YoY, with the rest coming from professional services at $180 million, up 12% YoY. The company’s 12-month subscription backlog now stands at $6.6 billion, up 18% YoY, followed by total subscription backlog at $21 billion, an increase of 24% YoY. The gross revenue retention rate came in at 95%, representing a churn of just 5% over the year.

During the quarter, the company onboarded several marquee new companies. This includes Asda, Electrolux, TopGolf, and LVHM, among others. In the public sector, the company acquired the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) as a customer for its Workday Government Cloud. It now counts 60% of the global Fortune 500 as customers and was named a leader in cloud Human Capital Management for 1,000+ employees by Gartner.

The company continues to double down on AI and now has 50 AI and 25 generative AI use cases in its roadmap. Workday completed the acquisition of HiredScore, an AI-powered talent acquisition and internal mobility solution. With 65 million users and 800 billion transactions on its platform each year, the company has a wealth of data to train its AI and leapfrog competitors.

Following a robust performance last year, the stock has had a rough start to 2024, and is down 21% YTD, mostly owing to its high valuation. We believe that this is unjustifiable, and overblown, considering the massive addressable market of $140 billion, and an impressive 5-year CAGR of 20%. Workday ended the quarter with $7.2 billion in cash, $3.3 billion in debt, and $2.2 billion in cash flow. Our Target is $325 and our Sell Price is $250.

We, that is, you and we have a decision to make. Do we let the company go here? Or do we buckle down and add more? We added the stock at $139 in 2018, so we are up over 50%. You, however, may have a higher entry price. Not that that makes any difference. It just feels better if you can sell and take a profit, even though the stock was at $311 in February. Revenues have been growing for the past four years, from $4.3 billion in 2020, to $5.1 billion, to $6.2 billion, to $7.3 billion in 2023. At the current rate it looks like $8.0 billion is probable for 2024. Growth appears to be slowing and we wonder: Is this 10% growth rate worth such a high valuation? The market just might have something here.

Here’s what occurred: When Workday reported quarterly earnings a week ago, it lowered its forecast for fiscal 2025 subscription revenue to between $7.7 billion to $7.725 billion from a prior call for $7.725 billion to $7.775 billion. That prompted a flurry of price-target cuts from Wall Street. This is a tiny lowering. It is such a small reduction, that you have to re-read the sentence to understand the difference. The stock was smashed. This is what the market is doing to great companies. We’re not happy about it, but it is reality. For this reason, and the slowdown in growth discussed in the previous paragraph, we are going to exit the stock. Tough decision, but the market is just destroying growth companies with slower growth in the forecast.

If you wish to stay in the stock, the knockdown of the stock by $52 a share (19%) since earnings a week ago, certainly creates a better valuation now. It’s down $100 (32%) since February. With cash of $7.2 billion and debt of $3.3 billion, the balance sheet is strong.

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First Solar (FSLR: $272, up 2%)
Long-Term Growth Portfolio

First Solar released its first quarter results recently, reporting $800 million in revenue, up 45% YoY, compared to $550 million a year ago. It posted a profit of $240 million, or $2.20 per share, against $42 million, or $0.40, with a beat on consensus estimates on the top and bottom lines, all driven by macro regulatory tailwinds, ever since the passing of the IRA Act in 2022.

The company has a sales backlog of 78.3 GW, up from 71.6 GW a year ago, with net YTD bookings at 2.7 GW, down from 12.1 GW. Its average selling price stands at 31.3 cents per watt, down from 31.8 cents a year ago. The company expects its bookings backlog to extend through 2030, as there is seemingly no stopping demand for rooftop solar and large-scale solar energy generation projects.

While much of the solar energy industry reels from the structural overcapacity in China, First Solar has circumvented this threat, with its focus on differentiation and its business model. The company’s cadmium telluride semiconductor technology is vastly better than the commoditized crystalline silicon modules coming from China, which are known to harbor various reliability and quality issues.

Beyond the regulatory tailwinds, the company stands to benefit from the rise of generative AI as tech giants look to transition towards green energy to operate their massive new data centers, with First Solar being the preferred choice. A typical query on ChatGPT consumes 50 times more energy than a Google Search, so the giants of AI must make this shift to solar if they want to save money and don’t want to come under criticism.

It is already up 58% YTD and is showing no signs of slowing with plenty of tailwinds in its favor, and a pole position in the market. First Solar ended the quarter with a robust balance sheet, with $2 billion in cash reserves, just $680 million in debt, and $900 million in cash flow.

Many leading analysts from UBS, Piper Sandler, and JP Morgan Chase have increased their Price Targets for the stock. UBS raised its target to $320, from $270, the highest on the Street. Our Target was destroyed in the last two weeks as the stock rallied from $187 on May 14th to its present level of $272. We’re up 40% in less than a year. At $215 it is time to raise. We love this company so we are going to best UBS and place a $325 Target on the stock. Our Sell Price of $140 is hereby raised to $240.

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iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF  (IEO: $103, up 2%)
Energy Portfolio

A pure-play energy fund with concentrated exposure to oil and gas companies that are exclusively involved in exploration and production, this fund closely tracks global energy companies and is thus subject to the industry’s swings and volatility. So far this year, the fund is off to a flying start and is up 9% YTD, mainly owing to the recovery in natural gas prices following a prolonged slump over the past year.

Given a short to medium-term horizon, the oil and gas industry is always eventful, with plenty of geopolitics and macroeconomic factors coming into play. For example, right now there is the Red Sea crisis, a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, and Ukraine intensifying its attacks on Russian oil refineries, among a host of other things to factor in, that could lead to swings in global energy prices.

On the macro front, the demand from China is still weak, but a recovery is in the cards, which could push oil prices beyond the $85 mark. Apart from that, a rate cut by the Fed sometime later this year, and a recovery in demand from Europe this winter for space heating and other residential and commercial uses can all lead to a much-needed rally in natural gas prices, which remain at multi-year lows.

When taking a long-term view, there is a lot to be optimistic about oil and gas stocks. This might seem counterintuitive considering the growing environmental movements the world over, alongside new alternative energy sources, but we believe that natural gas and hydrogen will play an outsized role in this transition. This too will take anywhere from two to three decades to become a reality, and in the meantime, oil and gas giants will be reaping profits.

The Exchange Traded Fund allows investors to ride this trend with its highly concentrated portfolio, with 45% of its assets held in ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66. These are all companies with massive inventories and low production costs, helping generate outsized returns during bullish streaks in energy prices, while still outperforming when prices slump.

Our Target is $120 and our Sell Price is $95. This fund is a great way to own an assortment of energy companies in one transaction. We added the fund at $80 two years ago.

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Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX: $8.28, down 10%)
Early Stage Portfolio

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, a leading AI and machine learning company in the biotech space, released its first quarter results a month ago, reporting $13.8 million in revenue, up 14% YoY, compared to $12.1 million a year ago. It posted a loss of $91 million, or $0.39 per share, as against a loss of $65 million, or $0.34 the prior year, but posted a beat on consensus estimates on the top and bottom lines.

Rising losses were largely the result of increasing R&D expenses, at $68 million, up from $47 million a year ago. This was followed by a similar rise in administrative expenses at $31 million, up from $23 million, as the company has been on a hiring spree. Revenues during the quarter were entirely from its partnership with Swiss life sciences company, Roche, which the company expects to scale further.

Recursion has plenty of value catalysts coming up over the next few quarters, which can be quite profitable for the company in a significant way. This includes five drugs in phase 2 clinical trials, each with over 100,000 potential patients worldwide, and no competitor. If the company can successfully commercialize just one of these five drugs, it can add significant value from current levels.

Its AI-enabled drug discovery platform continues to gain momentum, with potential new partnerships and the exercising of existing partnership options capable of driving top-line growth. The company’s 20 petabytes of data collected from real patients, when used with its internal AI software is a game changer for the industry, prompting Roche and Bayer to start working with Recursion.

The company’s AI play has been formidable enough to warrant a $50 million investment from Nvidia, and it has grand plans in this regard, including a next-generation supercomputer. The stock is down 16% YTD, and it stands to offer enormous value if catalysts start to align going forward from present levels. It has a robust balance sheet, with $300 million in cash, and just $50 million in debt. Our Target is $28 and our Sell Price is $8, which is getting tight. We added the stock at $10 just six months ago and it ran up to $17 in February but has since settled down. This is a speculative stock for sure. Enjoy the ride, but be careful.

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ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK: $42, down 4%)
TERMINATING COVERAGE

Cathie Wood's flagship Innovation ETF has had a rough start to the year and is down 16% YTD. This comes as the broader equity markets, including disruptive tech stocks, have posted a rally this year. The pullback can be attributed to its high exposure to Tesla, which has been a key detractor for the fund in recent quarters.

The fund’s overreliance on Tesla is clearly wearing it down, and alongside this, other key weak investments include Roku (down 88% from peak), Unity Software (down 90%), Pacific Biosciences (down 96$), and Teladoc, which is down 50% this year and over 95% from its peak in 2021. Ark attributes the weakness in Tesla to auto sales still being lower than pre-COVID levels, but we think the various controversies surrounding Tesla’s founder, Elon Musk, and his controversial $45 billion compensation package could have contributed just as much, not to mention his purchase of Twitter, spending half his time with SpaceX, and many other strange personal quirks that this genius brings to the table. In our opinion, the fund’s underperformance in recent quarters is largely due to it being underweight on market leaders and mega-cap stocks, which have led the rally in 2023 and this year so far.

Investors should start treating the Ark Innovation ETF like a venture capital or private equity fund, which often comes with a lock-in period lasting a few years, up to a decade. That’s how long it takes for disruptive innovations to pay off, and at current levels the stock offers robust value, making it perfect for value-seeking investors with a long enough time horizon.

We are asking ourselves some tough questions lately. Cathie Wood has clearly lost her magic. We added the stock in 2021 at $117, after it had hit an all-time high of $158. We thought it was overvalued and waited patiently for it to come down. Come down it did, but it has continued to erode for the past three years, going nowhere for the past two years, languishing in the low 40s. Why do we continue to hang on to this stock? That’s a good question. We have again been patient with this fund, but for far too long. We don’t have the time to wait any longer. There are much better places for our funds, than the many pie-in-the-sky investments she has made these past few years.

We are exiting the fund and moving on. We’d rather own more Nvidia, more Super Micro Computers, or Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

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The Bull Market High Yield Investor

The clock is now ticking on the next Fed policy meeting on June 12. Nobody expects a rate cut or a rate hike at this point. We're more interested in seeing whether consumer inflation numbers due out that morning have any impact on Jay Powell's prepared marks: a soft or "cool" print could once again prompt a lot of talk about relaxing overnight lending rates when the moment is right, while anything hotter than expected could have the opposite effect. Whatever we see this month, it's unlikely to change the primary narrative around the Fed, which is that we'll probably be in a place where Powell and company can start relaxing in September and cut more aggressively after that.

We've been saying it for months and we were right. Short-term interest rates have peaked. People parked in money markets are unlikely to earn more on those accounts than they're making right now. And as the short end of the yield curve recedes, upward pressure on the long end will evaporate along with it. There simply won't be a reason for capital to keep flowing out of Treasury bonds into those money market accounts. And as the bond market stabilizes, long-term yields have less reason to keep climbing to the point where they spook us here in the stock market.

Add it all up and if you're looking for a relatively smooth income stream without the strain of life in the stock market, you need to lock in Treasury yields where they are. That means settling for 4-5% a year, which translates into 2-3% above where the Fed wants to guide inflation in the long term. Maybe a 2-3% real return is enough for you. We have a feeling most investors will want their money to work a little harder, which is why we're banging the drum on stocks and funds like these.

Arbor Realty (ABR: $13.68, up 2%. Yield=12.6%)
REIT Portfolio

Leading Mortgage REIT Arbor Realty released its first quarter results recently, reporting $104 million in revenue, down 5% YoY, compared to $109 million a year ago. It posted a profit or FFO of $58 million, or $0.31 per share, down from $84 million, or $0.46. This was a mixed quarter for the company, with a beat on the top line, but a miss at the bottom, largely owing to a big drop in loan originations across the board due to the tougher mortgage business, due to 7% 30-year loans.

Agency loan originations during the quarter stood at $850 million, down from $1.1 billion a year ago, which Arbor had warned against a couple of months back. The company believes that the first two quarters of this year will include peak stress, as interest rates remain higher, with a possibility of a rate cut in late 2024. Borrowers are deferring taking loans in anticipation of lower rates.

Arbor’s structured portfolio, however, continues to do well, albeit with a small YoY decline, with $256 million in originations, down from $266 million the prior year, with a total of 59 loans being originated, the same as last year. Similarly, the company’s servicing portfolio hit new highs during the quarter, at $31 billion, up 8% YoY, compared to $29 billion a year ago, with a net servicing revenue of $31 million.

The company has done remarkably well throughout the pandemic, and the volatile interest rates environment that followed. This was largely owing to its diversified business model with multiple countercyclical income streams. For instance, if interest rates continue to remain high, originations will take a hit, but the mortgage servicing rights portfolio will increase in value due to low refinancing rates. Who is going to refinance a 3-4% loan at today’s 7% level?

This has helped it maintain its distributable earnings in excess of dividends, and a payout ratio of at least 90% throughout, all the while maintaining its book value, currently at $13.02. Over the past few months, Arbor has held outsized reserves to hedge against delinquencies and has continued to shore up liquidity, resulting in a robust balance sheet, with $910 million in cash, $12 billion in debt, and $550 million in cash flow.

Realty Income Corporation (O: $53, up 2%. Yield=5.9%)
REIT Portfolio

Realty Income, "the Monthly Dividend Company," is one of the largest investors in commercial real estate across the globe and recently reported $1.2 billion in revenue, up 40% YoY, compared to $940 million a year ago. It posted a profit or FFO of $790 million, or $0.94 per share, against $680 million, or $1.03, with a beat on top-line estimates, but a miss at the bottom, making it a mixed performance.

The company is structured as a real estate investment trust, and its monthly dividends are supported by the cash flow from over 13,250 real estate properties owned under long-term lease agreements with commercial clients. During the quarter, the company invested $600 million across a wide range of properties, with a weighted average yield of 7.8%. A significant chunk of these investments, or $320 million was allocated towards assets in the UK and Europe, with an average yield of 8.2%. The company invested $38 million in a US-based data center joint venture, marking its first investment in the space.

Another big milestone during the quarter was the completion of the $9.2 billion acquisition of Spirit Realty Capital, with the new combined firm valued at $63 billion, and Spirit shareholders set to own 13% of it. The CEO of Arbor stated that the transaction is immediately accretive. This gives Realty Income significantly more size, scale, and diversification across asset, geographical, and demographic lines, along with the potential for realizing various cost and operational synergies.

This was an eventful quarter for the company in terms of capital activity, starting with a secondary offering to raise $550 million an at average price of $56.93 per share. Followed by $450 million in 4.750% senior unsecured notes due on February 2029, and $800 million worth of 5.125% senior unsecured notes due on February 2034, resulting in $4 billion in liquidity, to fund $2 billion in investments during the year.

The stock is down by nearly 10% so far this year, but there are a few key catalysts that could turn things around, most importantly a rate cut by the Fed, later this year. What makes this REIT truly impressive is its diversification across classes, assets, and geographies, leaving it well off in all market conditions. It ended the quarter with $680 million in cash, $26 billion in debt, and $3 billion in cash flow.

Invesco Municipal Trust (VKQ: $7.93, up 2%. Yield=5.1% tax free, or the equivalent of 7.8% taxable)
High Yield Portfolio

The Invesco Municipal Trust is a closed-end fund that invests in tax-free municipal bonds, with the aim of generating steady current income for investors, with limited volatility and downside risks given a long-term horizon. It is a perfect product for retirees and other conservative investors seeking consistent tax-free income, but don’t want to stomach any excessive market risks.

The fund posted a stellar rally starting in October when the Fed officially ended its hawkish stance, but as the anticipation of further rate cuts soured, it has been increasingly rangebound over this year. It is, however, making the most of the higher nominal yields in recent months.

Following two consecutive years of net outflows, $140 billion in 2022, and $8 billion in 2023, muni bonds are set for a turnaround this year. Bonds posted negative performance in April, mostly owing to the better-than-expected employment and inflation data, prompting a hawkish reaction from the Fed. New issuances, however, swelled to $45 billion, 29% over the 5-year average, and were oversubscribed 3.8 times. After several months of limited supply, this quarter presented an opportunity for funds to add yield to their portfolios at an attractive risk-reward proposition.

Despite its phenomenal 22% rally since mid-year 2023, the fund offers an attractive discount of 12% to book value, while providing tax-free yields of 5.15%. This makes for a very impressive proposition, not just for conservative, income-seeking investors, but for speculators seeking value as well. With its extensive 30-year track record and a low expense ratio of just 1.3%, this fund is for those who want no risk from equities.

Good Investing,

Todd Shaver, Founder and CEO
The Bull Market Report
Since 1998