by Todd Shaver | May 17, 2017 | 6pm News Flash
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA: $31)
An addition to our Healthcare Portfolio
Date: May 18, 2017
Company Description
Teva is a multi-national generic and specialty pharmaceutical company with a global commercial footprint and portfolio of generic, branded generic, branded and OTC products. Through a series of acquisitions, it has grown into the largest generics company in the world and has added several specialty assets in central nervous system, migraine, and respiratory.
We are going out a limb here with this addition to our Healthcare portfolio as we think Teva is a strong value at current levels; in fact, we believe them to be way undervalued.
From their website: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries is a leading global pharmaceutical company that delivers high-quality, patient-centric healthcare solutions used by millions of patients every day. Headquartered in Israel, Teva is the world’s largest generic medicines producer, leveraging its portfolio of more than 1,800 products to produce a wide range of generic products in nearly every therapeutic area. In specialty medicines, Teva has a world-leading position in innovative treatments for disorders of the central nervous system, including pain, as well as a strong portfolio of respiratory products. Revenues in 2015 amounted to $19.7 billion.
Our view is based on: (i) one of the most diversified product portfolios in this Healthcare market; (ii) strong cash flow generation, which will allow the company to de-lever rapidly and continue to payout the comforting $1.36 annual dividend that yields 4.25% right now; and (iii) multiple pipeline catalysts which provide optionality to organic growth.
The stock is widely followed by Wall Street with most price targets in the high $30s or low $40s. We think the stock is worth $45 by placing the historical average 3.0% dividend yield on the current $1.36 dividend.
Framing The Debate
Before you buy any stock, you have to do some work to understand “what’s happening”. Let us catch you up to speed.
Just recently, the company reported 1Q results. The stock was up 2% following the report, which showed a $0.03 EPS beat despite revenue coming in 1% below consensus – big deal. Expense control was the primary driver of the earnings upside as operating expenses came in lower than expected and offset a 90 basis point miss in gross margin. This year’s guidance was reaffirmed and the company now expects to realize synergies and cost reductions of $1.5 billion by the end of the year, which represents a $200 million increase from previous guidance. It was a good quarter! Revenue $5.63B vs consensus $5.70B, and EPS $1.06 vs consensus $1.03.
However, sentiment remains mixed. Many analysts gave some credit for the operational execution, but expressed more concern around top-line trends as generic pricing erosion was larger than expected. This is indeed a longer-term secular issue that could weigh on the company’s performance in the quarters and years ahead, but it is not surprising, not new, and should not be a reason to never own the stock.
With secular headwinds* well understood and generally not believed to abate in the near term, most of the debate around the stock centers on valuation. Bulls point toward the 3.6% dividend yield as attractive and how it minimizes the downside, while more cautious analysts highlight the difficult operating environment and debt load that limits the ability to pursue growth via acquisitions. The drug pipeline is widely cited as a potential swing factor, with results for fremanezumab (migraines) frequently discussed as a notable near-term event.
* long-term trends
In conclusion, the current set up offers compelling risk/reward.
Key Highlights
#1 – Poor sentiment has plenty of room for improvement. We cannot ignore current sentiment on the stock, which remains skewed to the negative following a slew of negative news (including weak earnings reports, CEO turnover, and competition concerns) over the past 12 months, but these issues are in the past, and looking forward, we see the picture getting better for the company. And while sentiment over the near term is likely to be largely driven by management commentary on the generics business and the outcome of the search for a new CEO for the company, we believe many potential upcoming positive events are being overlooked.
#2 – Big time de-leveraging on the horizon. The company is expected to generate the highest level of operating cash of its peer group over the next 12 months, implying more rapid debt paydown than the Street is anticipating.
#3 — The company can live with weakness in the generics business. Although recent commentary from Cardinal Health points to a generics landscape that is still in flux, Teva’s 2017 generics guidance suggests estimates that are achievable. Assuming the erosion of pricing in the generics-based business, as well as new product launches, the business still adequately covers the dividend. Why all the fuss? We don’t get it.
#4 – We view copaxone (one of the company's main drugs that is now facing revenue declines) as a cash flow “enabler,” as we believe these drugs have the potential to generate $4 billion in peak sales for the company. Some analysts/investors get stuck on the declining revenue of this drug, for which we can't provide a counter argument, but we do note that as long as the drug is producing revenue this is positive for the de-leveraging story, which is all we need for the stock to work, as opposed to landing some remarkable growth breakthrough. We view the resulting incremental cash flows from copaxone revenues (and consequently also debt paydown) as totally underappreciated.
#5 – The pipeline could deliver a big upside. We view Teva’s key branded pipeline assets (fremanezumab – a drug for migraines, and austedo – a drug for Huntington's disease - a failure of the nervous system). While we would potentially be in favor of increased branded pipeline activity, as the company attempts to mitigate the likely impact of generic copaxone over the coming years, we would be in favor of the company doing more acquisitions in the years ahead only after de-levering the balance sheet to get the debt levels under control.
#6 – New CEO to be announced soon. While we have no insights on the timing of the hire of a new CEO for Teva, we do believe that the hiring of an executive with solid pharma and operational experience, as well as credibility with the Street, is of paramount importance for the company and investors, as the company has had five CEOs in the last five years.
Generics Business
Analysis of Teva’s 2017 guidance suggests estimates are achievable. In particular, when assessing the potential erosion of the “base” business, the impact of incremental competition to concerta*, and likely new product launches is supportive of estimates that are in line with, and potentially slightly ahead of, consensus. If anything, we see upside to these estimates due to the slower-than anticipated erosion of generic concerta following the launch of the Mylan generic in December. Don’t worry about soft Generics performance, it’s to be expected.
* Concerta is generic ritalin. Ritalin (methylphenidate) is a central nervous system stimulant that affects chemicals in the brain and nerves that contribute to hyperactivity and impulse control. Ritalin is used to treat attention deficit disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and narcolepsy.
Generics Revenue Forecast
Copaxone
While Copaxone is by no means a growth driver for Teva, it nonetheless remains an “enabler” and an important source of cash generation at a time when the company is seeking to rapidly reduce its $35 billion debt burden following the acquisition of Actavis Generics*. Below we highlight the EPS contribution from this drug. We think this source of cash flow its totally under-appreciated for what it can do to de-leverage the balance sheet.
* Allergan received $33 billion in cash and approximately 100 million Teva shares.
With the acquisition, Teva now has approximately 338 product registrations pending FDA approval and holds the leading position in first-to-file opportunities with approximately 115 pending ANDAs in the U.S. In Europe, after divestitures; Teva will have a pipeline capable of over 5000 launches across the region. In Teva growth markets including, Asia, Africa, Latin America, Middle East, Russia and CIS, there are now approximately 600 pending product approvals. Overall, Teva is planning for 1,500 generic launches globally in 2017.
Teva’s products generated approximately $215 billion in savings in the last decade to the U.S. healthcare system; this number will continue to increase and even accelerate as a result of the acquisition.
Copaxone EPS Contribution
Pipeline Potentials
$4 billion of new revenue is to come online if the pipeline drugs make it through trial. While TEVA’s branded pipeline is unlikely to constitute a key source of investor focus over the near term, such as the pending ongoing uncertainties surrounding the generics business, as well as the identity of the new CEO, it is worth noting that the company’s key pipeline assets are maturing, and set to constitute revenue opportunities over the near to medium term (austedo for Huntington’s Disease and Tardive Dyskinesia, and fremanezumab for chronic/ episodic migraine.
CEO Search
A new CEO is crucial to restoring credibility with investors. CEO turnover has, unfortunately, constituted a recurring theme for Teva over the past five years. Following the recent departure of the latest CEO, along with the struggles that the company has faced in its generics business and its levered balance sheet following the acquisition of Actavis Generics, the hire of a CEO with strong operational and pharma experience is crucial in order to (i) restore investor confidence; and (ii), communicate, and unlock the attractive risk-reward profile we see in the stock.
New CEO, new strategy? We don’t think so. The debate regarding a CEO with branded vs. generic pharma expertise for Teva remains ongoing. Over the near to medium term, we believe that broad pharmaceutical expertise and international experience for the incoming CEO is key. The company’s strategy has to focus on de-levering as rapidly as possible following the recent acquisition of Actavis Generics, which has left Teva with $35 billion of debt on the balance sheet. Longer term, we believe there is room for the drugs in the pipeline to be unlocked by a CEO with broader branded pharmaceuticals expertise.
BMR Take:
The key to success for the company is knocking down the $36 billion debt on the balance sheet. (They do have $1.7 billion in cash.) We think the company can do it, and when they do, Wall Street will give the company credit by sending the stock much higher. The stock didn’t even trade this low in the Financial Crisis of 2008. We will explain why we feel this way below.
Our view is based on: (i) one of the most diversified product portfolios in this healthcare niche; (ii) strong cash flow generation, which will allow the company to de-lever rapidly and continue to pay out the comforting $1.36 annual dividend that yields 4.2% right now; and (iii) multiple pipeline catalysts which will provide organic growth.
The stock is widely followed by Wall Street with most price targets in the high $30s or low $40s. We think the stock is worth $45 by placing the historical average 3.0% dividend yield on the current $1.36 dividend.
The company needs to take strong steps quickly in order to fix its balance sheet, replace its top management, and establish a plan to navigate the maze of challenges it needs to get through. But if the company does these things well, which is likely, then we expect Wall Street to rapidly push the stock higher.
by Todd Shaver | May 2, 2017 | 6pm News Flash
WE ARE VERY UPSET AT WALL STREET. Read the information below, and tell us why the stock is down over 30% in after-hours trading.
Twilio (TWLO: $34, down 1% during the day, and down 29% to $24 in overnight trading) reported Q1 revenue that topped analysts' expectations, and reported a smaller-than-expected net loss. READ THIS AGAIN. They topped expectations for REVENUES and topped expectations for profits – a SMALLER loss than expected.
Revenue in the three months ended in March rose 47%, year over year, to $87 million, yielding a net loss per share of 4 cents. 4 cents a share. That’s $3.5 million. THE COMPANY HAS $305 MILLION IN CASH. But wait – what is their DEBT level? THEY HAVE NO DEBT.
Analysts had been modeling $84 million and a 6-cent loss per share. OK – I see – so Twilio BEAT ESTIMATES – in revenues and earnings.
For the current quarter, the company sees revenue of about $86.5 million and a net loss of 10 cents a share. That compares to consensus for $88 million and an 8-cent loss per share. OK – I get it. They are forecasting a SLIGHTLY lower level of sales in the upcoming quarter. Who exactly knows how the quarter will come in? Certainly, not the analysts. Apple does this all the time. They forecast that the upcoming quarter is going to be VERY TOUGH. Well, Twilio is doing that here. Except that it is a TINY bit different from the analysts who are basically TERRIBLE at guessing revenues and earnings. And the stock gets destroyed. Great.
For the full year, the company sees revenue of about $360 million, and a net loss of 27 cents to 30 cents. That compares to consensus for $370 million and a loss of 16 cents per share. Again the company is missing by a HUGE MARGIN. No wait, sorry. By a small margin.
Here are some comments from the Co-Founder and CEO, Jeff Lawson, one of the most brilliant minds on the planet:
“We made continued progress across a number of our key initiatives in the first quarter, delivering further product innovation and adding new customers of all types at a rapid pace around the globe. While we are seeing some changes in the relationship with our largest customer, our momentum across the business continues to be strong, with a 42% year over year growth in Active Customer Accounts and a 62% year over year growth in Base Revenue during the quarter.”
Listen to this: The company has 40,700 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31st, compared to 28,600 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31st, last year. This looks like 50% growth to us.
Note that the company hired George Hu as their Chief Operating Officer. Prior to joining Twilio, Hu spent 13 years at Salesforce in a variety of leadership roles, culminating with four years as Chief Operating Officer.
And note that Twilio extended the long-standing relationship with Amazon Web Services by helping to power and further enhance the capabilities of Amazon Connect.
WE ARE VERY UPSET ABOUT WHAT THE MARKET HAS DONE TO THIS AMAZING COMPANY. We are NOT removing the company from our Special Opportunities Portfolio. In fact we are suggesting a 2nd BUY at this $24 price. Will it go to $20 first? Maybe, but we can’t see it going below this number, unless the market drops from the 21,000 level to 19,000 or below. At $24 this stock could be one of the best buys in the recent history of Wall Street.
Do you want to know about options? Write me at Todd@BullMarket.com and if enough people are interested, we will do a segment this weekend.
Apple Reports Earnings
Apple produced a second consecutive increase in revenue and earnings.
iPhone unit shipments, which fell 1% from a year ago. 51 million iPhones were sold, down 1% from the same quarter last year; iPad sales fell 13% to 9 million units; and Mac sales rose 4% to 4.2 million units.
Total revenue in the quarter was up 5% to $53 billion. Profit in the three months through April 1 rose 5% to $11 billion, or $2.10 a share, beating expectations for $2.02 a share.
The company raised its dividend 10% to $0.63 per share, and boosted its share buyback authorization to $210 billion. The company said it plans to return $300 billion to shareholders by the end of March 2019. Apple is now the world’s largest dividend payer at $13.2 billion annually.
Apple, which has in recent quarters touted its services business, reported revenue from this unit of $7.04 billion during the quarter, up 18% against last year. The company’s “Other Products” segment, which includes Beats, Apple TV, and Apple Watch, among other things, reported revenue of $2.87 billion, up 31% against last year.
The stock set a new all-time high earlier today, but is down $2 in overnight trading to $144.
More Earnings News:
Shopify (SHOP: $82, up 6%) killed in the quarter. Revenues were up 75%. The stock took off and set a new all-time high.
PayPal (PYPL: $49) set a new all-time high, up 2%.
First Solar (FSLR: $33, up 8%) is coming back nicely.
Netflix (NFLX: $156) hit a new all-time high yesterday of $157. It was $143 six days ago. The stock is worth $67 billion now.
Facebook (FB: $152) set a new all-time high today. Market cap is $440 billion.
Amazon (AMZN: $948) set a new all-time yesterday. Market cap is $452 billion.
But this Twilio thing has us very, very upset.
by Todd Shaver | Apr 16, 2017 | 6pm News Flash
THE BULL MARKET REPORT for April 17, 2017
The Week Ahead
What did the Easter Bunny bring this April to the markets? Much lower interest rates! The 10-year dropped 11 bp to 2.25%. Who says interest rates are going up this year? Not us, for sure. Geopolitical worries are the primary culprit. North Korea, Syria, the Middle East, all the regular actors are to blame. The 10-year Treasury now rests around 5 month lows. Everyone will look to the Fed for guidance about where the markets are going. Interestingly, Trump is now praising Yellen in a public call for Fed consistency, which contradicts his accusations on the campaign trail that she was artificially manipulating the economy in a detrimental way. Hmmm…does Trump see an opportunity to take advantage of low borrowing costs for his $1 trillion infrastructure plan? His Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has publicly expressed interest in doing big time deals for 100 year bonds. And we applaud this. We’ll have to wait and see.
There is always a bull market right here at The Bull Market Report! This week we highlight the following securities: Shopify, VMware, Amazon, Annaly, Apple, and Tesla.
Key Market Measures (Friday’s Close)
Highlights From The Past Week
Watchful Eye On North Korea. US officials are saying the Trump administration is focusing its North Korea strategy on tougher economic sanctions, possibly including and oil embargo, banning its airline, intercepting cargo ships, and punishing Chinese banks doing business with Pyongyang. According to one official, US President Donald Trump has approved a preliminary broad approach on North Korea and asked his national security team to craft a more detailed framework for new international sanctions and other actions. The official said the administration is considering an array of stiffer sanctions that could be applied on a "sliding scale," proportionate to North Korean actions. Some steps could be applied unilaterally, with others through the United Nations.
Business Returning to the Center Stage in the USA. Business leaders are gaining more and more influence in Trump's White House. Most recently, Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, is trying to orchestrate more power for National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn while dampening the influence of chief strategist Steve Bannon. It is quiet the change in scenery to see Washington acting as a friend to business led by accomplished business people. All good news for the markets.
Infrastructure Bill On The Horizon. One of Trump's top policy advisers said the timing of the President's $1 trillion infrastructure package is still up in the air as the administration considers its best path forward. D.J. Gribbin, special assistant to the president for infrastructure policy, said the timeline will hinge on whether it moves as a standalone measure or if it is attached to another legislative priority. It adds that they are still crafting the infrastructure measure. Transportation Secretary Chao said the package could be unveiled as soon as next month. We can’t wait.
BMR Companies and Commentary
Shopify (SHOP: $71, +4%, all price changes in this report are for the week)
Shopify had a solid week as talks of a takeover swirled. If true, we could see some very nice upside in the near-term. If not, that’s fine with us, as we still like the company’s fundamentals and prospects. Bottom line, Shopify still has room to run whether there is a takeover. Let’s re-visit why.
One can hardly kick back on the couch and watch CNBC or browse through your favorite financial publication these days for more than a few minutes before you come across a discussion of Amazon, as the online Retail juggernaut has skyrocketed to become an American business behemoth. And rightfully so.
For investors who want to capitalize on the undeniable secular growth trend of eCommerce, but who either missed the boat on Amazon or are wary of its nosebleed valuation, is there another road less traveled that they could embark on to get exposure to the eCommerce tidal wave? One that has impressive momentum and an ascendant stock price, but just not as frothy of a gain as Amazon? Yes there is. That’s Shopify.
Shopify not long ago announced its full-year financial results for 2016, and boasted 90% revenue growth and 99% growth in gross merchandise volume, (a term used in online retailing to indicate a total sales dollar value for merchandise sold through a particular marketplace over a certain time frame.) As an added bonus, Shopify's “Sell on Amazon” integration was made generally available to merchants in December. This mean Shopify now seamlessly connects store owners to the millions of customers searching for products to buy on Amazon, and merchants can now conveniently manage their product catalog for their eCommerce website, retail store, Amazon store, and other sales channels all in one place. This is big time! Since this integration just took place in December, we are only at the tip of the iceberg in terms of benefits and synergies from the move for Shopify.
BMR Take: The consensus calls for Shopify to more than double revenue from $600 million this year to $1.4 billion by 2020. This kind of explosive growth could cause the stock to double over the same period.
VMware (VMW: $91, -1.6%)
VMware made some waves this week announcing intentions to acquire Wavefront, the leading metrics monitoring service for cloud and modern application environments. Terms were not disclosed. The transaction is expected to close in calendar Q217. VMware does not expect this transaction to have a material impact on its 2017 operating results. But don’t write off the deal as not important just because the financial impact isn’t going to be seen in the near-term.
Digital enterprises face challenges of a new order of magnitude when monitoring modern applications -- consisting of hundreds of microservices in containers with lifespans of seconds -- spread across private and public clouds. To identify and fix operational issues in these dynamic cross-cloud environments, developers need new instrumentation for their applications, and teams require sophisticated real-time analytics on their high-scale distributed systems to adapt to problems before they impact the business.
Wavefront provides metrics to optimize clouds and modern applications by delivering operational insights using millions of data points per second in real-time. Operators and developers can interrogate real-time data streams to discover new ways to address problems, identify bottlenecks, and test algorithms and hypotheses. A cloud-hosted service, Wavefront ingests, stores, visualizes, and alerts on streaming data from clouds and modern applications enabling superior operational performance. The service can measure, correlate, and analyze data across servers, devices, applications, end-user behavior, multiple public cloud and data center attributes, and business metrics. (Now that’s a mouthful.)
This is big news for the underlying story at VMware, which is most exciting given the company’s increasing presence in the cloud marketplace. For seven-plus years, VMware has invested in solutions featuring advanced metrics and analytics to help customers simplify and automate how they manage, monitor and troubleshoot services in dynamic virtual and cloud environments. As all these investment start paying off, we see VMware as a top pick for Technology investors.
BMR Take: The company is currently generating $5-6 of EPS annually. The current valuation seems like a bargain considering all the progress with the cloud business. Our Price Target is $95 which would be a 2-year high and a more than double from the $44 low it hit in February last year. If the stock hits $95, we are moving our Price Target up into triple-digits, especially if revenues continue to soar. You know what we say about revenues and earnings. Revenues first, then earnings.
Amazon (AMZN: $884, down 1%)
A new week. Another big move brewing for Amazon. It is said that the eCommerce giant considered internally whether Whole Foods would help invigorate its nearly decade-long push into groceries. That is, Amazon kicked around the idea of buying the grocery chain!
Whole Foods has long been seen as a buyout target. Activist investor Jana Partners set off a new wave of speculation this week when it acquired a stake and urged the company to evaluate a sale. With a market valuation of $11 billion, the ailing organic-food retailer would be a powerful acquisition for Amazon -- dwarfing its 2009 purchase of online shoe retailer Zappos for about $1.2 billion. But the deal would turn Amazon into a grocery giant overnight and help it sideline Instacart, a startup that delivers grocery orders from Whole Foods stores in more than 20 states.
Jana has called for Whole Foods to overhaul its operations and brought in retail and food experts to help foster a turnaround. It also urged the company to consider a sale. A list of potential bidders includes Amazon, as well as traditional grocery chains such as Kroger and Albertsons. Whole Foods remains an attractive asset, even after a sales slump and the loss of market share to mainstream supermarkets, because the brand is strong and could be leveraged into something big.
BMR Take: Amazon and CEO Jeff Bezos are winning at everything. Why not grocery? Current Street earnings estimates call for $27 per share by 2020. With so much growth and strong earnings potential, the shares are compelling here.
Annaly Capital Management (NLY: $12, +5%)
Looking for yield in this market? Look here! Annaly Capital Management is a top pick in the Mortgage REIT sector.
Let’s review some of the reasons to like Annaly. Home price gains were up 6% in latest report from Case-Shiller, showing acceleration in home price increases. Tight supplies and rising prices may be deterring some people from trading up to a larger house, further aggravating supplies because fewer people are selling their homes. This is a good trend for Annaly. Annaly owns mortgages so rising home prices means the credit risk of owning the bonds is safer.
Annaly has a broad exposure across the US unlike other competitors more narrowly focused on only a particular market like New York. Yet another reason to like Annaly.
BMR Take: With a yield of 10.6% and a track record of over 20 years doing this, we continue to pound the table on Annaly. Look at this stock – up from $10.12 in mid-January in the midst of a strong interest rate rise with EVERY pundit saying that Annaly will be impacted sharply with the higher rates. Boy oh boy where they ever wrong. And boy oh boy were we ever right. Of course we’ve been saying this since we founded The Bull Market Report in 1998!
Apple (AAPL: $141, -2%)
Apple to buy Disney? Now that’s exciting! It could be more realistic than you think. Apple has the cash to pull off a $200 billion-plus takeover of Disney — creating a company worth $1 trillion with “almost limitless opportunities in content and technology.
A combined Apple-Disney would create an instant competitor to Netflix that would take advantage of the Mouse House’s content and Apple’s user base. Other benefits include: integrating Apple consumer tech as experiences in Disney’s theme parks; and landing global streaming sports rights for ESPN via Disney and Apple distribution and a strong balance sheet. Content is a major focus for Apple, target size is not an issue, and Disney offers an avenue to diversify away from hardware without diluting the strong Apple brand.
The M&A rumor mill got new grist last fall, when Apple chief Tim Cook told analysts that he was “open to acquisitions of any size.” In addition, Apple execs met with Time Warner honchos in 2015 in a discussion that raised the possibility of a merger - before AT&T moved on its $85 billion bid for Time Warner,
Per one analyst’s estimates, the merger of Apple and Disney would be highly accretive to earnings, to the tune of a 15%-20% increase in earnings per share based on the presumed 40% premium deal price and Disney’s low debt load. Nice!
BMR Take: We say it every week and we’ll say it again. Apple is really cheap compared to the current EPS outlook for this year of nearly $9. And all that cash put to good use through buying a storied franchise like Disney could be an exciting catalyst/prospect for the company.
Tesla (TSLA: $306, flat)
Tesla is a new entrant into the automobile, solar and battery storage businesses. Since Tesla’s current revenue is roughly 99% automobile related and, due to the Model 3 introduction and projected sales, this ratio will likely remain similar for quite some time. Thus, Tesla is an auto manufacturer, plain and simple. Panasonic supplies Tesla with batteries. Other companies provide Tesla with electric motors, tires, wheels, etc. Thus, with a few extraneous business lines, Tesla designs and assembles cars. Until Tesla’s battery storage business and solar equipment business become majority contributors, it will remain viewed as an auto company.
The good news is that’s okay!
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company will unveil its electric tractor-trailer truck this September, calling the vehicle “seriously next level” and praising the Tesla team for doing “an amazing job.” He also revealed that Tesla will show off an electric pickup truck in 18 to 24 months. Awesome innovation.
BMR Take: Street estimates call for sales growth from $7 billion last year to $11 billion this year to $33 billion in 2020. This is an exciting time for the business and the stock.
Note that Tesla was upgraded by Piper Jaffray from a "neutral" rating to an "overweight" rating last week. They now have a $368 price target on the stock, up previously from $223. We have a $325 Price Target on the stock.
Netflix (NFLX:$143, flat) had its price objective hoisted by Cowen from $165 to $170 in a research note released on Tuesday. Our Price Target is $165.
Upcoming Economic News
FRIDAY, APRIL 14 (Yes, this was on Friday – Good Friday)
Consumer Price Index
For March
Forecast: -0.1%
Actual: -0.1%
The Consumer Price Index was forecast to fall 0.1% in March following a 0.1% gain in February and 0.6% increase in January. It did. This was the first decline in the CPI since February 2016. Energy prices were a net drag on the CPI in March. The CPI for food and beverages rose 0.2% in February, the strongest since September 2013.
Retail Sales (This too was announced on Friday the 14th.)
For March
Forecast: -0.3%
Actual: -0.2%
Consensus expected retail sales to have dropped 0.3% in March following a 0.1% gain in February and 0.6% increase in January. Results were slightly better than expected. We believe weather was likely a small negative for sales. Non-store sales (online) have been contributing more to growth in retail sales recently. Already released data showed that unit vehicle sales dropped 5.5% in March and shaved 0.4% off total retail sales growth.
Tuesday, April 18th
8:30 AM
Housing Starts
Period: March
Consensus: 1,245,000
Prior: 1,288,000
Housing starts should continue to signal a healthy economy. The data reveals the number of housing units started in the United States. The U.S. Census Bureau's New Residential Construction release provides statistics on the construction of new privately-owned residential structures in the United States.
Thursday, April 20th
10:00 AM
Leading Indicators
Period: March
Consensus: 0.3%
Prior: 0.6%
This one is interesting to watch. Everybody is so focused on trying to figure out what direction the markets are heading. This is one of the key metrics that tells us. Leading indicators are economic series that tend to change direction ahead of shifts in the business cycle. There are 10 components of the U.S. Leading Composite Indicator published by The Conference Board. The index is constructed by averaging the individual components in order to smooth out a good part of the volatility of the individual series. Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in actual economic activity.
Notes at the Margin
From Phil K. Verleger, Jr.
Former Director of the Office of Energy Policy
at the United States Department of Treasury
This item published by Platts Global Alert first caught my eye:
“The Permian Basin [in Texas] is going to become the largest oil field in the world, surpassing the legendary Ghawar field of Saudi Arabia,” Bill Marko, managing director of Jefferies, said on the sidelines of the conference.
The basin holds an estimated 210 billion barrels of oil that will become economically recoverable in the future, or 325 billion barrels of oil equivalent when oil and natural gas liquids are counted, he said.
The 210 billion barrel estimate caught my attention. After all, Saudi Arabia’s reserves are put at “only” 260 billion barrels per the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. It is hard to believe that one US field has oil reserves equal to 80% of Saudi reserves.
The US Energy Information Administration recently published a short-term outlook predicting an 8% increase in US production from 8.8 million barrels per day in December 2016 to 9.5 million barrels per day in December 2017. Given recent trends, the estimate will likely need to be revised again, perhaps to 10 million barrels per day or more.
BMR Take: Phil – Knowing you the way I do, this is your way of jumping up and down and waving your arms like a madman. This is certainly big news. We have seen it coming to a certain extent but when you put it in writing the way you do, this is making us stand up and take notice. There are big changes afoot in the energy world. We would venture to say that $100 oil is not going to be seen for a long, long time to come. Prepare accordingly.
A Word from Gary Jefferson
Jefferson Financial Group
First Vice-President, Investments
UBS Financial Services, Inc.
They honored Arnold Palmer this past weekend at the Masters Golf Tournament. He was one of the few greats who turned the game into a hugely popular spectator's sport. One of his best known quotes is: "Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated."
As words of wisdom go, we can't think of a quote that could be any more applicable to the stock market. As simple as "buy low, sell high," to as complicated as the blackboard full of equations in Einstein's office. Our formula for investment success has always been "Success = preparation, recognition of value and proper seizing of opportunity." Preparation is fairly simple in the sense that it's mostly reading. But it takes a lot of reading and research on an endless basis. The complicated part is filtering out all the "noise" and learning what resources you can rely on and trust. Overall, we are believers in the KISS principle when applying our formula because we have learned over the years that the more complicated the investment process becomes, the harder it is to stay on track.
If you want to keep it as simple as possible, just think of one word - earnings. Good earnings signal a rising stock market. Weak earnings are normally a forecast of a weak or falling market.
That's where we are today. First quarter earnings season kicked off last week with several big banks reporting. First quarter earnings growth is expected to be 10%, the best since 2014. Sales growth, a laggard in the financial recovery, is expected to grow by 7.5% - its best pace since 2011! (Source: Thomson Reuters)
In addition to corporate earnings, investors will also likely monitor the economic calendar to be sure there is no unexpected deterioration in important statistical areas. And if you want to complicate it just a bit, throw in the fact that investors will probably just continue to wait for word from Washington on their pro-growth agenda. When that will actually be announced, and how long it takes to pass, are currently unknown and unknowable. So, while we may be stuck in a trading range pending the agenda results, earnings should provide a simple-to-understand reason to expect that the market will eventually work its way to a higher level.
Facebook Adds a Million Advertisers in 7 Months
There is a big move going on in the digital marketing world that many are not aware of. More than 5 million businesses are advertising on Facebook each month, Reuters reports. That is up from 4 million monthly advertisers in September 2016, and the 3 million monthly advertisers it had in March 2016. Significant upside remains as Facebook’s 5 million advertisers are less than 10% of the 65 million businesses that are active on the network.
Facebook is one of two undisputed leaders in digital advertising. Alongside Google, the company is expected to generate about half of online ad spend in 2018. Facebook generated close to $27 billion, and Google close to $80 billion, in ad revenue last year.
Small and midsize brands are flocking to advertise on Facebook. Big brands may drive the bulk of revenue in advertising markets, but there is still ample opportunity for growth with the smaller brand advertisers. The sheer volume of advertisers on Facebook reflects the company’s success in attracting these smaller firms its platform.
A few industries are generating the bulk of Facebook ad spend. E-commerce and Retail, and Entertainment and Media are the biggest industries represented in Facebook's advertiser base.
Facebook is doing a great job at building its advertising base overseas - over 75% of advertisers are outside of the US. India, Thailand, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are the fastest-growing markets.
Mobile is big, as you know. Almost 50% of advertisers create ads on mobile devices. More than 90% of Facebook users access the network via mobile. And mobile advertising accounts for 85% of ad revenue. Creating mobile-first experiences is particularly key in emerging markets.
The biggest users of Facebook are the US at 220 million; India at 210 million; Brazil at 120 million; Indonesia at 75 million and Mexico at 65 million.
Our Take on SNAP.
Snap (SNAP: $20) went public at $17 in early March and promptly opened at $24. They raised $3.4 billion making it the largest IPO since Alibaba went public in 2014, raising $20 billion. The market cap is now $23 billion and all of this for a company with no revenue in 2015, $400 million in 2016 and losses of $500 million in 2016. Ouch. More losses than revenues. Not a good business model.
Snapchat has grabbed the attention of a generation of younger smartphone users, who post and share photos and videos on the app that can disappear after a set amount of time. The app - developed by Stanford University students, two of whom are still executives at Snap had 160 million daily active users as of December 2016,
BMR Take: We are steering clear of this one. One might compare this a bit to Facebook, but Facebook had huge revenues and real earnings when it went public, and the growth since then has been phenomenal as you know. The Snap IPO has invigorated the IPO market and Wall Street is generally pleased, but for this company to get to $40 or $50 a share, we will have to see revenues of 10-20 times current levels, and big profitability, both of which may never materialize. We are steering clear.
The High Yield Report
By Michael Foster
Special to The Bull Market Report
It was a short week, but an eventful one. Already we’re seeing tons of articles about how the stock market is in crisis. Looking at volatility, there seems to be reason to think this; we went from a VIX of about 10 to nearly 16 in days. This means there is more caution in the market, and expectations of a short-term downturn. However, those expectations will disappear as they always do and the bull market will return as it always does.
We can already see pockets of optimism in the high yield world. In fact, We’d go so far as to say we’re beginning to see a sector rotation among investors that is benefitting parts of the high yield universe.
Before we get into that, though, let’s look at who is not winning. The UBS BDC ETF (BDCS: $23, down 1%) saw a soft week that was no worse than the broader market, but definitely was not good. This move is actually not that bad, considering that BDCs have had a massive run-up for months and has driven the entire sector higher. One well-known BDC analyst recently pointed out that the sector has beaten the S&P 500 since the start of 2014. This kind of cherry-picking time series doesn’t tell us much, but it does remind us that BDCs had an extremely vicious decline in 2013 and have been recovering for years since then as the market readjusts its understanding of what a rising rate environment means for these assets. It also means that the bargains in this odd corner of the business lending universe have dried up. That’s a shame, because The Bull Market Report is eagerly awaiting adding a BDC to the high yield portfolio, but this week’s 1% decline isn’t enough for us to do it. In fact, the recent decline may indicate that weaker prices might be just on the horizon, indicating a need to buy some BDCs when the price is right. Stay tuned as we keep focusing on this story.
So if BDCs aren’t benefiting from the fall in stocks this week, who is?
The answer is obvious: REITs. The SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR: $94) was mostly flat for the last four days but is up 1% from last Friday - and comparing REITs to a week ago is really key here, because the momentum in REITs really started to kick off on Monday and has stayed strong with the many REITs in the Bull Market Report portfolio.
Let’s start with Kimco Realty (KIM: $22, up 4%), which shot up at the start of the week and has maintained its higher price level. Kimco is expected to report earnings by the end of this month, and analysts’ expectations are strong. Despite expectations of a 1% revenue decline, FFO expectations put Kimco’s dividend coverage in the 140% range. This means that Kimco is expected to far cover its dividend and have room to increase payouts. That should mean the company should be a low yielder, but this company’s 5% dividend yield indicates market expectations of risk are growing. Why the disconnect?
Simple: the decline in Retail.
Long story short, shopping malls are collapsing. The high-profile news of bankruptcies at Sears and JCPenny are making investors grow increasingly confident that the Retail sector is an apocalypse that no investor should come near. Of course these people are forgetting just how strong things are for Whole Foods, upscale outlet malls, Apple stores, and several other corners of the retail market that Kimco just happens to be focused on. In fact, Kimco’s tenants tend to be the most well-heeled and revenue-safe firms in the Retail landscape, so this collapse has little impact on them. Their occupancy rates have remained near 99% throughout. And although these issues are now high profile, they’ve been top of mind for Kimco management for a decade - and management has addressed these issues both in their strategic decisions and in their earnings calls.
In short, Kimco is not affected by the slowdown of the suburban American shopping mall.
Investors don’t know this, of course, so they’re throwing out the baby with the bathwater. That means now is a buying opportunity unlike no other. In fact, Kimco looks like one of the most attractive options for high yield investors. Of all our picks, Kimco looks like one of the most undervalued.
A similar story hit Government Properties Trust (GOV: $22, up 3%) over the past week, making it one of the top performers in a well-performing sector. Government Properties is heavily exposed to federal government tenants, and lower government spending has been seen as a real risk for the company. As a result of this fear, the company has looked to diversify by investing in office space that would be more insulated from the expected weaker demand in government properties. That has created a swiftly diversified portfolio that also has firm dividend coverage, but the market never really saw it that way. Instead, Government Properties is always seen as a risky option, which is why it often traded at an 11% yield. That’s what the stock was yielding when we first recommended it, and now it’s trading at less than an 8% yield, thanks entirely to capital gains. Sadly, that means buying more of Government Properties isn’t the greatest idea right now, but it does remain a solid hold thanks to its capital gains. The last week’s recent 3% jump is likely just the beginning; this company has a much safer income stream than its yield would indicate, meaning price gains are likely to come. We recommend staying in the stock to enjoy those gains as demand for REITs continues to rise.
Our other REITs did well this week too. Digital Realty Trust (DLR: $110, up 1%), Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI: $34, up 1%), and Care Capital Properties (CCP: $27, up 1%) all saw modest gains largely as a result of the continuation of a recent trend. CCP and OHI have been recovering recently from an oversold situation in healthcare REITs - in short, the market sold way too many of these because they thought a variety of risks (interest rates, cuts to Medicaid and Obamacare, etc.) would damage these firms permanently. These were considered long-tail risks not priced into the stocks, and yet these companies are doing fine and the risks the market has perceived are not materializing. In fact, they may never be real concerns for the companies. As a result, the stocks have no place to go but up. While we’re sitting on double-digit gains for Care Capital, we see more room to grow and thus recommend holding tight on these firms.
Finally, a word on municipal bonds. The iShares S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Fund (MUB: $110, flat) didn’t move much this week although our muni bond picks did. Invesco Municipal Trust (VKQ: $13, up 1%) and the Nuveen AMT-Free Fund (NVG: $15, up 1%) outpaced the market, and we expect further gains in the municipal bond market to drive both of these funds higher. What’s going on is quite simply secular demand for munis returning to the market, largely a result of the higher uncertainty and fear that is driving stocks lower. In short, many retail investors are getting skittish and feel a need to pull out of risk and get lower risk assets.
This is driving a broad base of investors to demand more municipal bonds, driving up their value and in turn driving up the net asset values of these and other municipal bond funds. Since munis are far undervalued again due to risks that were feared but are not materializing, there is a lot more room for these funds to rise in price before they’re fairly valued. Thus muni fund holders should enjoy the gains they’re getting now but shouldn’t sell yet; if the market stays afraid these funds are destined to rise considerably. If the market gets more courageous, these funds are still destined to rise (although perhaps at a slower pace) because they have been massively undervalued due to ridiculous fears about muni bonds that aren’t materializing. Either way, the direction is clear: K eep and hold these funds and wait for their pricing to better match their real value.
Good Investing,
Todd Shaver
Editor, Founder and CEO
Since 1998
