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Earnings Preview, July 30-August 1: Shopify And More

Netflix (NFLX: $362, down 3% earlier this week) disappointed last night and the stock's precipitous overnight decline provides us with a different kind of wake-up call. Whether you're in Netflix or not, you're going to want to read this flash.

On the surface, Netflix delivered a quarter almost entirely in line with what investors told themselves they wanted to see. Revenue of $4.92 billion was only 0.1% below guidance and reflects healthy 26% year-over-year improvement. Even quarter-to-quarter, the company squeezed 9% more cash out of its subscribers than it did three months ago.

Furthermore, despite profit being a lower priority while management invests vast amounts in original content, it was nice to see that Netflix carried $0.60 per share across the bottom line, $0.04 better than we expected.

But the market found fault as Netflix missed its subscriber growth target, losing 126,000 paid U.S. accounts and only adding 2.83 million new viewers overseas. Management told us to expect the audience to grow by an even 5 million accounts, so it's a clear disappointment.

There are some compensating factors like the way revenue hit guidance. Netflix raised prices in many markets and this is apparently where the pain point is. We know that now. Furthermore, management has doubled down on its aggressive growth forecasts and now expects subscriber adds to accelerate again in the current quarter.

We've had it with Netflix. We've warned throughout that it's going to be a volatile ride. The stock is now down 20% since we started covering it this time around, after making 65% back in 2016-17. We're worried about competitors like Disney and Apple starting to crowd into the space. With a negative $3.5 billion of free cash flow this year and next, we'd rather be invested in a company that actually makes money. We hereby remove Netflix from our High Tech portfolio. We added them on July 16th last year. We're gone now on July 18th, 2019.

However, even for a volatile stock, the reaction to so-so numbers was so extreme that we now suspect that the market as a whole is getting overheated. It's not Netflix. It's Wall Street. And an overheated market can lurch lower as fast as it soars. Even counting the stocks that fizzled and left our list under a cloud, the BMR universe is up a dramatic 33% YTD. This is a great time to lock in some of that profit before a moody market can take it away.

Is It Time to Take Some Profits?

Why are we asking this question?We can’t predict the future. You may think we can, but we can’t. And we want YOU to think about where YOU are and where you are going with your investments. We have made some amazing stock picks and we’ve made you a lot of money in many of these.  (We’ve had a few losers too.) Roku is now a triple since we added it last year. Shopify is up 350% in two years. Square is another quadruple play. PayPal, Twilio, Paycom, Microsoft, Apple, Visa: all strong performers.

Is it time to take some of that off the table? There are a lot of things to worry about in the world today: Trump, Chinese tariffs, Iran, immigrants, global slowdown, flat earnings for the past quarter and next; negative interest rates in Europe and Japan . . . can they happen here? If so, will the Fed run out of ammunition if short rates go to zero? What about the attacks on Big Tech by Congress and the European Union? Can Facebook, Amazon and Google survive this onslaught? Of course they will, but why sit around with someone hitting you on the head with a hammer. Maybe it’s better to step a little away from the scene.

Lots of questions. No solid answers. Irrational exuberance was proclaimed by Alan Greenspan on December 5, 1996 after an amazing bull run in the preceding few years. But the bull market continued to skyrocket until the Spring of 2000. That’s almost 3½ years after Greenspan’s call. So is it too early to start taking profits now?

Again, we don’t know, but we do know that there are things you can do.  You can sell some calls against your stocks. This brings in cash and cushions you on the downside a bit.  But if Roku, which was at $32 at the start of the year goes from $110 now to $90 or even lower, it’s not going to cushion you much with $5 of call option income. So perhaps you can take some profits off the table. Maybe you should put some stops in place.  Sell some at $104. Sell some shares if it hits $96. Sell some more if it hits $90. Then if it goes to $70, which is a distinct possibility in a nasty bear market, you’ve protected your profits and have cash in the bank.

And don't forget, we’ve got 17 stocks in our High Yield and REIT portfolios that are paying from 3% to 11% dividends. (Be wary of Annaly and New Residential, though.) These stocks are just waiting for you to place some cash in them so that you can sleep better at night.

This content is for our beloved subscribers and anything you see on this page is just an excerpt!

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Earnings Preview, July 29-30: Apple And Beyond

Netflix (NFLX: $362, down 3% earlier this week) disappointed last night and the stock's precipitous overnight decline provides us with a different kind of wake-up call. Whether you're in Netflix or not, you're going to want to read this flash.

On the surface, Netflix delivered a quarter almost entirely in line with what investors told themselves they wanted to see. Revenue of $4.92 billion was only 0.1% below guidance and reflects healthy 26% year-over-year improvement. Even quarter-to-quarter, the company squeezed 9% more cash out of its subscribers than it did three months ago.

Furthermore, despite profit being a lower priority while management invests vast amounts in original content, it was nice to see that Netflix carried $0.60 per share across the bottom line, $0.04 better than we expected.

But the market found fault as Netflix missed its subscriber growth target, losing 126,000 paid U.S. accounts and only adding 2.83 million new viewers overseas. Management told us to expect the audience to grow by an even 5 million accounts, so it's a clear disappointment.

There are some compensating factors like the way revenue hit guidance. Netflix raised prices in many markets and this is apparently where the pain point is. We know that now. Furthermore, management has doubled down on its aggressive growth forecasts and now expects subscriber adds to accelerate again in the current quarter.

We've had it with Netflix. We've warned throughout that it's going to be a volatile ride. The stock is now down 20% since we started covering it this time around, after making 65% back in 2016-17. We're worried about competitors like Disney and Apple starting to crowd into the space. With a negative $3.5 billion of free cash flow this year and next, we'd rather be invested in a company that actually makes money. We hereby remove Netflix from our High Tech portfolio. We added them on July 16th last year. We're gone now on July 18th, 2019.

However, even for a volatile stock, the reaction to so-so numbers was so extreme that we now suspect that the market as a whole is getting overheated. It's not Netflix. It's Wall Street. And an overheated market can lurch lower as fast as it soars. Even counting the stocks that fizzled and left our list under a cloud, the BMR universe is up a dramatic 33% YTD. This is a great time to lock in some of that profit before a moody market can take it away.

Is It Time to Take Some Profits?

Why are we asking this question?We can’t predict the future. You may think we can, but we can’t. And we want YOU to think about where YOU are and where you are going with your investments. We have made some amazing stock picks and we’ve made you a lot of money in many of these.  (We’ve had a few losers too.) Roku is now a triple since we added it last year. Shopify is up 350% in two years. Square is another quadruple play. PayPal, Twilio, Paycom, Microsoft, Apple, Visa: all strong performers.

Is it time to take some of that off the table? There are a lot of things to worry about in the world today: Trump, Chinese tariffs, Iran, immigrants, global slowdown, flat earnings for the past quarter and next; negative interest rates in Europe and Japan . . . can they happen here? If so, will the Fed run out of ammunition if short rates go to zero? What about the attacks on Big Tech by Congress and the European Union? Can Facebook, Amazon and Google survive this onslaught? Of course they will, but why sit around with someone hitting you on the head with a hammer. Maybe it’s better to step a little away from the scene.

Lots of questions. No solid answers. Irrational exuberance was proclaimed by Alan Greenspan on December 5, 1996 after an amazing bull run in the preceding few years. But the bull market continued to skyrocket until the Spring of 2000. That’s almost 3½ years after Greenspan’s call. So is it too early to start taking profits now?

Again, we don’t know, but we do know that there are things you can do.  You can sell some calls against your stocks. This brings in cash and cushions you on the downside a bit.  But if Roku, which was at $32 at the start of the year goes from $110 now to $90 or even lower, it’s not going to cushion you much with $5 of call option income. So perhaps you can take some profits off the table. Maybe you should put some stops in place.  Sell some at $104. Sell some shares if it hits $96. Sell some more if it hits $90. Then if it goes to $70, which is a distinct possibility in a nasty bear market, you’ve protected your profits and have cash in the bank.

And don't forget, we’ve got 17 stocks in our High Yield and REIT portfolios that are paying from 3% to 11% dividends. (Be wary of Annaly and New Residential, though.) These stocks are just waiting for you to place some cash in them so that you can sleep better at night.

This content is for our beloved subscribers and anything you see on this page is just an excerpt!

Please note BullMarket.com access is available to paid subscribers only. Our Members Areas include archives of past Newsletters, News Flashes, our eight portfolios including STOCKS FOR SUCCESS, Healthcare, High Yield, High Technology, Aggressive, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Long Term Growth, and Special Opportunities. Also, all of our in-depth research is available, and more.

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Johnson & Johnson Starts The Season Strong

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: $133, down 1% this week) has been known to drop as much as 4% in the wake of a perfectly solid quarterly report, so yesterday's relatively minor retreat wasn't a real shock. The important thing is to take the long view.

First, the historical numbers remain healthy. Revenue only dipped 1% to $20.5 billion from last year's $20.8 billion. Our math suggested a deeper drop to $20.3 billion, so an extra $200 million more than we thought coming in last quarter counts as a win. The ailing Medical Device unit held up a little better than we expected, with 7% lower sales almost perfectly balanced against a stronger pulse in Consumer Products and Pharma. Excluding the impact of a weak Chinese yuan and strong U.S. dollar, Johnson & Johnson eked out a little bona fide revenue growth.

Management is confident that Medical Devices are turning around thanks to a revitalized product line in Optical and Cardio equipment along with robust hip replacement sales. In the other categories, a wide range of cancer, hypertension and behavioral drugs did well, creating a fertile sales environment for new therapies coming out of the pipeline soon.

Earnings came in at $2.58 per share, nicely above our $2.46 target. It's great to see our first report of the 2Q19 season give us a number that large, especially when the market as a whole is steeled for a slight earnings decline. If our other recommendations can deliver anything like this, it's going to be a great quarter.

Guidance also improved. Management is now tentatively promising up to 4% sales growth for the full year, which implies more than a little acceleration in the next six months. (Drugs and biotech products are the key drivers of this.) While the earnings target didn't budge, the fact that they're still contemplating up to 6% growth on that side is a good show of confidence.

We like these numbers. And while the market seems more concerned with litigation at this point, management continues to assert complete confidence in decades of Johnson & Johnson product testing. They haven't set money aside for anticipated lawsuit settlements. Legal expenses dropped to $190 million last quarter, down a full 85% from 4Q18.

All these fundamentals are going the right way. And if history is any guide, it might take a few weeks for the stock to start moving in the same direction. That's all we want. Johnson & Johnson will never be a fast stock, but it is extremely reliable.

And on the opposite extreme, we'll see you tomorrow morning with the numbers from Netflix. That one could get a little wild, but for now, we're looking forward to clarity.

 

This content is for our beloved subscribers and anything you see on this page is just an excerpt!

Please note BullMarket.com access is available to paid subscribers only. Our Members Areas include archives of past Newsletters, News Flashes, our eight portfolios including STOCKS FOR SUCCESS, Healthcare, High Yield, High Technology, Aggressive, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Long Term Growth, and Special Opportunities. Also, all of our in-depth research is available, and more.

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TESLA IS BUYING SOLAR CITY

June 22, 2016: Tesla (TSLA: $220) announced a buyout offer for Solar City (SCTY: $21). Tesla is down to $193 in afterhours trading and Solar City is up to $24, after hitting $25.

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We Add MAZOR ROBOTICS to the Special Opportunities Portfolio

June 21, 2016: We have found what could be the next Intuitive Surgical. The name is Mazor Robotics. This company, founded in 2000 is focused on minimally invasive robotic surgery for the spine and the brain. New innovations in medical technology can be tricky and their stocks can be volatile. So if you waited until just 10 years ago when the da Vinci system 9from Intuitive was well accepted, your investment return would still have been a tidy 600%. Not too shabby.

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OPPORTUNITIES IN HEALTHCARE

June 14, 2016

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