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June 26, 2016
THE BULL MARKET REPORT for June 27, 2016

THE BULL MARKET REPORT for June 27, 2016

THE BULL MARKET REPORT for June 27, 2016

Brexit: Shock and Awe
Two weeks ago in The Bull Market Report entitled Summer Calm, we mention how it would take something really big to move the market.  Well Friday, that something happened.  British citizens expressed their desire to exit the European Union (EU). Global markets were caught totally off guard.  Before the markets around the world even opened Friday morning, S&P 500 Futures had dropped nearly 6%.  The financial markets around the world collapsed to kick things off and by the close on Friday, all three major US market indices had fallen on the day by more than 3.5%.  Every S&P industry sector except Utilities was in the red by the day’s end.  

The only clear cut winner on Friday was the US dollar and Gold.  The British Pound hit a 40-year low following the Leave victory, falling more than 8%.  The rush into the dollar drove fixed yields down.  The US 10-Yr. Treasury Note dropped as low as 1.4% during the day, closing at 1.58%.  Crude, being priced in dollars was under continuous selling pressure before bouncing off its $47 low for the day.

In all, it was a five-day rollercoaster ride with early week optimism for a Brexit STAY victory giving way to complete shock and awe at the end.  Public opinion polls completely missed it; they weren’t even close.

Here is How The Major Averages Performed For The Week:

Key Market Measures (Friday Close)
Dow Jones     17,400        -275 -1.6%
S&P 500:      2,037          -34 -1.6%
Nasdaq      4,708          -92 -1.9%
Crude Oil:        $48       -1.39 -2.8%
Gold:    $1,321         +18 +1.4%

Time For Some Perspective and A Strategy
Conventional investment wisdom holds that where the greatest uncertainty exists, the greatest opportunities are to be found.  As the US markets opened on Friday, uncertainty was at its peak.  Everywhere people wondered what would happen next.  It was not a pretty day anywhere in the world.

In the Treaty on European Union (TEU) a quick look at something called TEU Article 50 will help shed some light.  Under the terms of this provision a European Union member country can withdraw only after negotiation and approval of the European Parliament.  This could take as much as two years.  With Prime Minister David Cameron having resigned on Friday, with new UK elections pending, who knows how long it may take for the Brits to file for Article 50.  A good guess is two-three years for the whole process to unfold.  A lot could happen during this period.  The EU could make a counter offer or make other appeasements to maintain British membership. (Plus this just in: there is a recent movement to have another vote on Brexit in the UK. Three million people have signed petitions.)

The speculation now shifts to the remaining EU countries.  Will there be others that look to make an exit?  (There is talk in France now – Frexit.) Others have been named as well:  the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Hungary. Will the Euro survive as a currency if this happens?  Will a falling Euro create a financial crisis in some of the weaker EU economies?  These are some of many questions that will be debated endlessly in the months ahead.  Since this is a political process, and politics moves at its own glacial pace, the answers will be slow in coming.

Meanwhile Back At Home
Let’s take a breath and look at the immediate implication for US markets.  Gold and the dollar are in high demand as safe havens.  The US offers a positive yielding bond market and economic strength.  Plus, Brexit puts any doubt to rest about future US monetary policy: There is zero likelihood of an interest rate increase this year.  We have suggested repeatedly how global forces, not the FOMC are in charge of policy.  Last Friday showed us a perfect example.

All this means that money flows still favor US stocks.  But not all stocks.  Strength of the dollar for multinational companies translates into lower foreign earnings.  A higher valued dollar raises the cost of Crude, cutting into global economic growth.  Finally, foreign trade outcomes are going to depend on Europe but we can’t forget about Chinese monetary policy either.  If Beijing does not realign currencies, US exports will get hammered.  The higher dollar is great for US inflation but not for the trade deficit.  

Invest In The USA
So a picture emerges that favors US companies with either a major domestic concentration in businesses like services (Healthcare, Real Estate, etc.), or those that import manufactured components or finished products (Technology).   Uncertainty creates demand for precious metals and the Brexit vote supplies plenty of this.  Companies with little debt and great cash flow characteristics are more valuable now than ever.  A quick look at fixed income yields will get us up to date.

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, 10-year US Treasury note yields reached the lowest level since 1962 of 1.42%.  This makes high cash flow, dividend paying companies the obvious choice of investors seeking income.  It also shines a special light on certain financials like REITs where payouts are well above the average S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.1%. (See table below: Superior Dividend Yields)

The Bull Market Report Company Commentary:
Barrick Gold (ABX: $20.50, up 1.8% on the week) When in doubt, buy Gold.  Not just the metal, buy Barrick.  Here is why.  We added the stock to our Special Opportunities List in February at $11.69.  Since then it has added 75% in value.  For the record, buying Gold (the metal) over the same period would have resulted in a gain of 18%.  So give yourself high fives, you made a good decision and we hope we helped you in that process.

Barrick is doing better than most because it is hunkering down, ridding itself on non-core assets ($3 billion so far), getting a good handle on operating costs and making some overly conservative assumptions on the price of gold ($1,000 – it’s over $1300 now).   

No wonder Wall Street expectations have been rising over the past 60 days.  Consensus earnings for 2016 is $0.56 per share, nearly double the $0.30 earned last year. As for 2017, EPS are estimated as high as $1.20.  Barrick Gold is delivering riches to investors and there is more to come.

Adeptus Health (ADPT: $49, unch.)  Adeptus Health is a purely domestic service company so it fits our strategy perfectly.  OK, but what is wrong with the stock lately?  Since reaching a 2016 high of $72 back in early May, it has been tumbling to current levels.  The single most obvious contributor to this was the registration of 2.7 million in stock through Goldman Sachs earlier this month.  The choice of Goldman is a gold plated seal of quality on the Adeptus offering.  However, it has led to serious indigestion in the market.  This was not one of Goldman’s picture perfect underwritings.

Over the past 90 days, consensus estimates for 2016 have risen from $2.47 to $2.63 and for next year from $3.52 to $3.84.  This is all good.  On June 9, senior management appeared at Goldman’s Annual Global Healthcare Conference. Our sources tell us, the Adeptus presentation was a big hit.  

2Q16 earnings release is still about a month off on July 20.  At this time, the seven faithful Wall Street analysts following Adeptus, estimate a 37% rise to $120 million in revenues and a 30% gain in EPS to $0.57.  These are fantastic numbers but the rate of gain will be even better as we get into the second half of this year when a number of new Emergency Centers are up and running.  A year from now, we will look back on the current stock price and wonder how it ever got this cheap.

Celgene (CELG: $96, down 2%) Early next week we will be adding Celgene to our Opportunities in Healthcare portfolio.   Some 25% of the business is from Europe so there will be some currency issues to deal with.  This is only a minor issue however when considering the US pipeline is about to explode with important new cancer drugs.

Immuno-Oncology is the science of stimulating the human immune system as a means to attach and kill cancer cells.  Celgene is the third largest in the area behind Roche (RHHBY)* and Novartis (NVS)*, but much faster growing.  Almost all it revenues come from this source, so this is virtually a pure play on Immuno-Oncology.  
* Note that both of these companies have a market cap of close to $200 billion.  Celgene is at $75 billion

Celgene has a huge new products pipeline including 18 in Phase III trials.  Per share profits were down 19% to $1.94 last year as spending on R&D jumped 50%.  But that will pay off in the long term as the pipeline produces the next Celgene blockbusters.  The short run outlook is bright also.  Management is guiding EPS for this year to $5.75, nearly three times last year’s level.

With the stock well below its 2015 high of $141 and selling at 17 times estimated 2016 EPS, the stock is a real solid value.  It is time to get invested. (Again, look for the full research report early this week, delivered via News Flash.)

Visa (V: $75, down 2% for the week) Visa has been called the world’s largest non-financial financial company.  Interest rates mean little to Visa.  The key is the growth of commerce.  A tiny slice of every credit card transaction using the Visa card goes into company coffers.

It might be argued that the ripple effect of Brexit will slow retail commerce in Europe and that would be bad for credit transactions.  This sort of thinking was quite evident on Friday with the stock falling over 4%.  Here is why we disagree.

Last week was a busy time for the world’s largest payments processing company - the company completed the acquisition of Visa Europe for $24 billion in cash and stock.  Visa Europe revenues are about $1.5 billion.  Over the past 5 years Visa Europe revenue has grown at a 13% annual pace and profits by 10%.  The combination of the two companies will produce a 10% boost to consolidated annual revenues and 5% to profits.  

The acquisition will enable Visa management to improve the speed in deploying new technology and the opportunity to increase the rate of growth in EU countries.

In Europe an estimated 37%, or $3.3 trillion, of personal consumption expenditure is still done in cash or checks so there is plenty of room for growth here.  Europe has also been an early adopter of mobile payments, which will see strong growth in the future given the widespread availability of Near Field Communication technology (the technology used in Apple Pay, etc.)

Last week was also the switchover by Costco (COST: $156, unch.) from American Express to Visa.  Costco customers will now pay with cash, debit or Visa card.  With revenues of $116 billion last year, the average Costco purchase is over $100 and that means Visa credit cards will receive the vast majority of all transactions.  Visa gets a tiny slice of each transaction but when you add it all up it could amount to over $250 million a year, a tidy 2% bump in 2015 Visa revenues.

Since the stock was added to our favored list on February 9th, it has appreciated 7% making it one of the top performing financial stocks during this time. It is a solid stock that just keeps moving ahead.

The Search For Income
As the dollar appreciates and bond yields continue to erode, investors in search of income can find an answer in the list below.  Here are nine companies on our favored list that offer superior yields.  We like them for their price appreciation potential as well.  There is some real quality here to choose from.

The Bull Market Report

Superior Dividend Yields

Company Symbol Dividend Yield
Annaly Capital NLY 11.0%
Blackstone Group BX 8.6%
Welltower HCN 4.8%
Qualcomm QCOM 4.1%
Equity Residential EQR 3.1%
United Parcel Service UPS 3.0%
Microsoft MSFT 2.9%
Apple AAPL 2.4%
Gilead Sciences GILD 2.3%
S&P 500 ^GSPC 2.1%

Upcoming US Economic Data
All eyes will continue on Europe and the United Kingdom this week and for many more that follow.   On the US side, Wednesday is the key day where personal income, spending and inflation will be featured.  The Case-Shiller home price index for April is due out on Tuesday.  This forecast was not available as of Friday’s close of business but our estimate is for a price rise of 4%.  Supply shortages in major real estate markets continue to push prices to record levels especially in East and West coast regions.

Well, as you get ready for this week, remember to keep a cool head.  Our sole purpose this week was to offer a strategy to view what is happening now as an opportunity.  Once this period passes and stocks move higher, we will be glad we took action.  In the meantime, we hope you have a truly rewarding week.

RELEASE TIME (ET) REPORT TITLE PERIOD   FORECAST PREVIOUS
TUESDAY, JUNE 28
8:30 am Gross Domestic Product 1Q 1.2% 0.8% (1Q)
10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index June 94.0 92.6
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 29
8:30 am Personal Income May 0.3% 0.4%
8:30 am Consumer Spending May 0.4% 1.0%
8:30 am Core Inflation May 0.2% 0.2%
THURSDAY, JUNE 30
8:30 am Weekly Jobless Claims 6/25 n/a n/a
FRIDAY, JULY 1
10:00 am ISM Manufacturing June 51.0% 51.3%
10:00 am Construction Spending May -0.2% -1.8%
Varies Motor Vehicle Sales June 17.3 million 17.4 million

Options Corner
Well – Out of all of our readers only ONE PERSON caught my mistake last week when we discussed selling calls on Twitter.  (I knew it was a mistake – I was testing you…  Just kidding.) Here is his email to us:
From: Michael Saidis
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2016 8:49 PM
To: info@bullmarket.com
Subject: New Message From BullMarket.com - Contact The Bull Market Report

“Re your covered call example with TWTR , I think you operated a little fast & loose with the math .... basically subtracting $2 premium from cost as well as adding it to proceeds ..... nice try.”

Thank you Michael.  Let’s try this again.  Twitter (TWTR: $16.44) had a good week, too.  It was up 2% for the week, but WAS up 6% for the week until Friday.

Let’s say you want to do a covered call on Twitter because you think it can move to the $18-20 level by the end of the year.  You could buy 1000 shares at $16.44 and sell the January 18 or 20 call.  The $18 call sells for $2.00 and the $20 for $1.40.  Let’s say you sell the $18 call for $2. This would give you $2 of downside protection, so your breakeven on the downside would be $14.44 a share. Note though, that if the stock goes higher than $18 you would not participate in anything above $18.  So if the company were to be bought out at $20 or $22 or higher, you would not participate in anything over $18 - your profit would be capped at $18.  Still not a bad return: A $14.44 investment; sale at $18.  That’s 25% in seven months.  

More Commentary on Bull Market Report Favorites
Under Armour (UA: $37) was upgraded by analysts at Buckingham Research from a "neutral" rating to a "buy."  We are big believers in Under Armour.  They are on the cutting edge of the athletic apparel market, also including running shoes and other types of athletic shoes.  We added the stock to our Stocks for Success in January at $40 and we certainly aren’t happy with the performance so far, but we are sticking with this one for the long haul.  We feel it is only a matter of time before they start to be accumulated by the smart money on Wall Street.   

SURVEY: Results of our informal survey of the SIZE of the type in The Bull Market Report newsletter: We got about 20 responses and 19 of them voted for the larger font.  Here is a comment from Ron Shack: “Larger is better for these old eyes.”
So we are sticking with the way we have been doing it.
If you have any other issues, feel free to write us at Info@BullMarket.com.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM: $22, down 67 cents for the week – 3%) Sprouts reported earnings on May 5th. In an otherwise strong quarter, the company said revenue improved 16% to $990 million, short of estimates of $1.0 billion. Comparable same-store sales were solid, increasing 5%, and earnings per share improved 20% to $0.30, better than the consensus by a penny. The launch of 365 by Whole Foods Market emerged as a potential threat to Sprouts as the lower prices at 365 are more in line with Sprouts. We remain steadfast on this one.  We think they’re doing just fine and the stock should rebound as the summer moves on.
 
Tesla Offers to Buy Solar City.  Elon musk of Tesla (TSLA: $193, down 10%) thinks having Solar City (SCTY: $22, up 4%) in his stable will produce extraordinary benefits in the future.  We were quite upset about it when we heard the news but as time has calmed our passion we our having some new thoughts.  The initial reaction on the Street was positive as we saw the stock move to almost $24 on Wednesday.  (Big deal – the stock was at  $35 April 21st, a month ago.)  The follow-on reaction was negative, very negative.  Here are some statements from analysts:  
“We believe shareholders could be concerned about the transaction given Elon’s ties to both companies.”
“We believe investors are likely to view this transaction as a bailout for SolarCity and a distraction to Tesla's own production hurdles.”
“Little in the way of synergies, much in the way of cash burn.”
“We expect this to be a challenging acquisition given the integration of two different types of companies and cultures.”
There were a few positive statements; here’s one:
“The deal is consistent with the long-term strategy of both companies.”

But some analysts are now changing their tune and blessing the merger and the future.

Musk himself said that Tesla could be a trillion-dollar company one day, despite its current market value being less than 3 percent of that figure.
"I have no doubt about this - zero," Musk said on the call with analysts and investors before markets opened on Wednesday. "We should have done it sooner."

BMR Take:  We were quite upset about this deal last week as we wrote to you in our News Flash.  It turns out that the market didn’t like it either.  It’s a done deal now (unless it unravels) so we are more accepting of it now.  We believe in Musk.  He is a lot smarter than we are, so we are going to stick with Tesla and trust that he will be able to pull this off.  But note that Tesla is a risky investment.  New car company success stories are few and far between. Be wary.

ENERGY STOCK SALES REACH A RECORD
The Wall Street Journal reported that Denver-based driller QEP Resources and Canada’s Birchcliff Energy announced offerings late on Tuesday that brought to more than $20 billion the total in North American oil-and-gas company share sales this year. That figure tops the record of $19 billion raised in follow-on stock offerings (where already-public companies sell new shares) for oil-and-gas producers for all of last year. The share-sale activity, coming with a rebound in oil prices, shows investors’ faith that crude prices won’t falter again. QEP (QEP) is a $3.7 billion market cap company. The stock hit $35 in 2014, and just bounced off its low of $9 earlier this year to its present $17.30.

Also, many of the companies selling shares lately are using the cash to acquire land. QEP raised $370 million, and now the company says it is buying about 9,000 acres of Permian Basin drilling property in West Texas for about $600 million. The price per acre is around $60,000, a new high in that area, almost double recent prices. Some said that QEP’s Permian acquisition represents one of the highest, if not the highest price paid for such assets, and suggested the company may be overpaying to boost its holdings there. Looks like speculation is back in the oil business.

Other Energy News: Saudi Arabia has declared an end to its oil war with the US
Two years after declaring war on US shale oil production, Saudi Arabia says the need for the fighting is over. Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid Al-Falih said that the worldwide oil glut has vanished, signaling an end to Saudi Arabia’s strategy of flooding the global market with oil to try to put American drillers out of business. A three week long resurgence of US oil drilling after 21 months of decline suggests that Saudi and the US fought to a draw rather than  “victory.”

Falih noted that a record volume of oil remains in storage in the US and around the world built up during the glut, but once much of that is sold off, the kingdom can resume its traditional role managing supply and demand.

“We are out of it,” Falih said. “The oversupply has disappeared. We just have to carry the overhang of inventory for a while until the system works it out.”
The Saudis went to “war” in the summer of 2014 after a sudden, 4-million-barrel-a-day surge in US shale oil production. The Saudis saw that the OPEC oil cartel was losing its four decade long influence over global oil prices. So, they decided to destroy US drillers by flooding the market and forcing down oil prices. Russia did the same thing, and crude fell from $100 to $27 in two years.

As of the end of May, 80 North American oil companies had declared bankruptcy. The number of oil rigs in the US fell to 315 at the end of May from a peak of 1,600 in late 2014. Oil production dropped, although not as dramatically as one might think, to about 8.7 million barrels a day from 9.7 million at the peak in March 2015. But the resurgence of oil prices has resulted in a turnaround in rigs, too–last week, they rose by nine to 337, according to Baker Hughes, an oil services firm.

There is a turnaround going on as 10 new rigs went back into production, up for the 2nd week in a row, to 340. There are nearly 2,000 drilled but not completely constructed wells in the US. (Wow.) With higher prices, companies will begin to bring those into production.

Falih has been talking out of both sides of his mouth.  A month ago he said Saudi will not set price targets, but just this week he said that since Saudi is so important in the world of oil that there is no one else in the world except them to balance supply and demand.

Crude oil 2016

BMR Take: It looks like nothing has changed. Investors are betting on stable to higher crude prices.  It used to be said that “As goes General Motors, so goes the country.”  That was THEN. This is NOW. Energy is big business in this country and if this resurgence holds, we are in for a stronger economy, higher stock prices and stable interest rates.  

High Yield Corner
Of course, this week’s market was dominated by Brexit, and the UK’s “surprise” vote to leave the EU. In reality, this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Economic stagnation across Europe, with youth unemployment breeching 50% in many Mediterranean countries, was surely top of mind amongst British voters. In addition to that, growing angst over refugee immigration, the very public and embarrassing spats between the Bundesbank and Greece, and growing talk about expanding the EU into forays such as creating a European army surely motivated a lot of people to vote to leave.

But now we are in uncharted territory, and markets hate nothing more than that. So many pundits are expecting Friday’s weak market to persist next week, with broad based declines. It’s times like this that investors need to have  strong conviction that downturns are inevitable and temporary, and that we will get back to normal eventually. This is a time to buy, not to sell.

This is true for pockets of the high yield market, but not all of it. High yield debt, as seen through the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond Fund (JNK: $35, up 0.4%) remains quite highly priced. Junk bonds are up over 3% year-to-date and over 10% from their yearly low. The positive news is that there are world-wide central bank promises to keep liquidity going, including the Federal Reserve which has basically said it probably won’t raise rates for the rest of 2016, but the high relative price of junk doesn’t mean it’s a no-brainer buy right now.

AstraZeneca (AZN: $28, up 1% for the week; down 5% on Friday) saw a correction Friday along with other British stocks, which might persist into the future. The company’s fundamentals remain attractive - the Brexit will have little impact on the company’s revenue streams, as it is diversified globally and well penetrated in America, Japan, and other wealthy nations beyond the EU. That doesn’t mean short-term fears won’t drag it down further in the coming weeks.

Barclays (BCS: $8.90, down 8%) While not traditionally a high yield stock, Barclays is suddenly a very appealing buy. Losing 20% in a day on fears that Brexit will hurt British bank profitability, the company is now paying a 4.3% yield. That yield could go down in U.S. dollar terms if the British pound falls further, but that may not happen. After falling to a 30-year low, the pound should stabilize from here.  It seems that Brexit has already been priced in, so we won’t see a dramatic change to the currency until new developments emerge.
 
Main Street Capital (MAIN: $32.80, up 1%, 6.6% yield) has so far remained surprisingly resilient against a Brexit. It had an early morning flash crash on Friday but was bought up by opportunistic traders later in the day, causing it to close almost flat from the prior day. This only proves the resilience of this stock and the market’s growing understanding of its durable value, driving us to keep holding it and enjoying the 7% dividends.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI: $32.60, down 1%, 7% yield). A similar story. The stock fell steeply Friday morning, but ended the day up as opportunistic investors bought. Since Omega Healthcare has little direct or indirect exposure to either Britain or Europe, there’s little reason to expect its core growth driver - an aging American population and the growing popularity of long-term care facilities - will continue to drive the company’s performance. Plus, there’s no reason to say that a Brexit will hurt the company’s UK properties - which make up less than 20% of the company’s overall portfolio.

The only real question mark for a high yield investor is what this will do to oil, and how that will impact MLPs. The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP: $12.60, up 1%, 9% yield) took a dive Friday but remained up for the week. This was largely in sympathy with oil, as MLPs start to trade closer to the commodity. With that in mind, the headache and risk associated with MLPs makes them an asset class to avoid right now, as the reality of a Brexit might cause greater volatility in commodities than anyone can predict.

Annaly (NLY: $10.89, up 3%, 11% yield) Citi Research kept its neutral rating on the stock but they are getting more positive on the shares. They expect Annaly to generate more interest income and have lower financing costs since the Federal Reserve’s expected pace of rate hikes is slower Annaly shares are up 14% so far this year – add the dividend and you have a 25% gainer.

You know that we have loved Annaly for almost 20 years since we started The Bull Market Report in 1998.  Annaly started in 1997 and have been successful through thick and thin; through bull markets and bear; high interest rate environment and low.  How do they make their money?  They borrow from banks at 1-2% and invest in Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae bonds and other (formerly) AAA-rated securities yielding 4 and 5%.  Leveraged 5-1 they produce 13-15% returns, thus being able to pay management EXORBITANT salaries (we HATE this), and pay out the rest, yielding 11% at the moment.  (If you can get over their salaries, then you can invest with them.  We have.)

That’s the story.  We are buyers here.  The stock could easily get to $12 in the next 12 months, so your total return would approach 23%.  If the stock goes to $10, your return would approach zero.  If it stays the same you can sit and collect the 11% dividend.

Oh, one more thing – Note that Annaly always takes a hit when there is talk of higher interest rates.  And since rates are so low, there is always talk of interest rates going up.  So take heed.  (Of course, the interest rate pundits have been calling for higher rates since 1984 (this is not a misprint – see chart just below) but obviously this hasn’t happened and is not happening now.) BUT, there is always tomorrow, so beware.  But again, management KNOWS the world they live in and can handle higher interest rates.  It is just the rest of the world the panics and sells the stock, causing it to go down.  When that has happened in the past it has always been a buying opportunity.   

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#{%22range%22:%22max%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}

Great Quote from Gary Jefferson to keep in mind during these volatile times:
Please remember – this market decline is a result of "uncertainty" and fear --- not fundamentals.  Earnings will eventually decide where prices end up.
BTW, the Volatility Index (^VIX: 26) was up 50% on Friday. Almost unheard of.)

Interesting Letter to the Editor:
We got a letter from Robert Jolly Thursday evening during the midst of the carnage before the market opened up Friday morning.  He said:
Hey Todd: Are we buying anything today or sitting on the sidelines until the smoke clears.

Our answer:
"Hi Robert –
"If you can tell me where the stock market is headed, I’ll answer your question for you.
"The market was in panic mode all last night.  I was up for most of it.  It was down 733 points at its lowest.  It’s down exactly 500 now in overnight trading.  So, of course, no one knows.  But the sun came up this morning and nothing really changed except of the level of the Dow.  This is a big deal, so it might be a good idea to take a breather and watch.  If the market shoots up 1000 points you’ll be upset, but you’ll be fine financially.  If it shoots DOWN 1000 points from here it could be a disaster for you.
"Am loving Annaly at the moment!
Todd Shaver"

Looking for solid companies that have gotten hammered well beyond reality?
Yes, we all are, and we preface this by saying most of this depends on the future movements of the world’s stock markets.  If the markets drop 10-20% from here, we are in deep trouble and all bets are off.  But if the world comes to its senses and things stabilize like they usually do, then here are a few overseas stocks that have been beaten up.

Deutsche Bank (DB: $14.72, down 17% Friday)  $20 billion market cap; strongest bank in Europe; 52-week high of $35; trading at 29% of book value; trading below the 2008/2009 Great Financial Crisis low.  Possible negative:  Interest rates in German are negative - the 2-year Schatz yield, the equivalent of our two-year Treasury, hit negative 58 basis points (-0.58%).

Credit Suisse (CS: $11.51, down 16% on Friday) Market cap - $22 billion.  52-week high of $30. 5.5% yield.

How about Barclays (BCS: $8.89, down 20% on Friday) $44 billion market cap.  (It WAS $55 billion on Thursday.) Yield – 3.4%.  $18.05 52-week high.  All-time high - $58 in 2007. Founded 1896; based in London.

Lloyd’s Banking Group (LYG: $3.33, down 23% on Friday).  $70 billion market cap.  Was $90 billion on Thursday.  4% yield. Founded 1695 (this is not a misprint.)

Good Investing,
Todd Shaver, Editor in Chief
The Bull Market Report

June 22, 2016

TESLA IS BUYING SOLAR CITY

June 22, 2016

Tesla (TSLA: $220) announced a buyout offer for Solar City (SCTY: $21).  Tesla is down to $193 in afterhours trading and Solar City is up to $24, after hitting $25. For what it’s worth, Elon Musk, who is the chairman of SolarCity, CEO of Tesla and the largest shareholder of both companies, described the deal as a "no brainer." He said that the company could sell customers an electric car, a home battery and a solar system all at once.

We are not here to comment on done deals. Solar City is done. We’ve said many times we think Solar City is worth more than $50 a share.  Now we will never know if it would have gotten there.  We’ll have to look through the windshield wipers of Tesla now.  However we will comment on what Tesla will look like after the buyout.  We think Tesla got a good deal on price and value.  We just aren’t convinced Tesla needs a solar panel company.  They need to concentrate on electric AUTOMOBILES.

BMR Take:  Sell Solar City, as the deal may fall apart for any variety of reasons.  Buy Tesla for the fabulous company it is, with its 400,000 pre-orders for the Model 3; the $400,000 million in the bank from the $1,000 deposits the buyers all made; its great leader; its future as the first successful new car company in decades.  We will bring you more information in the weeks ahead.  For the time being, we would hold Tesla here and would add to our position if we had the funds.  In a few weeks and months we expect Tesla to be significantly north of $200 a share again.

June 12, 2016
THE BULL MARKET REPORT for June 27, 2016

THE BULL MARKET REPORT for JUNE 13, 2016

Summer Calm
Last week was much like the Shakespearean quote: Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.  We constantly look for clues to the future of stock prices but the market is playing its cards close to the vest these days.  There was continued upward movement in oil prices early in the week above the $50 dollar level.  But an uptick in the rig count quickly put an end to the rally.  We’re at 414 now (compared with 635 this time last year), but we were up 3 the previous week and +6 this week. Stocks started out the week nicely before giving up some gains on Friday.

Meanwhile yields on the 10-Year US Treasury Note ended the week yielding 1.64%, one of the lowest levels of the year.  Even so, the dollar rose modestly against the Euro, Yen and British Pound.  These days, Gold is the star, gaining steadily in each of the last two weeks.

What this market needs is less Shakespeare and more action.  Be patient, it’s only a matter of time.

Here is How The Major Averages Performed

Key Market Measures (Friday Close)    
            
June 13.2016

Looking For Leadership
For the last few months we have been locked in a sideways market ranging from 2050 to 2100 on the S&P 500.  The exact numbers are less important than the question this raises.  What is needed to break the stalemate?  Of course there are any number of possibilities here.  The most likely are the major forces of oil and interest rates which continue to dominate the conversation.  Of these two, oil is the most volatile so let’s focus on this for a moment.  

The dramatic recovery from the $26 low in February to Friday’s close at $49 has surprised many pundits and propelled the entire Energy sector into one of the top performing groups of 2016.  But with that recovery, domestic drilling rigs are being brought back on line, a dozen in the past two weeks alone. Any further increase above $50 per barrel will result in even more rigs being added.  

This week we see another FOMC meeting where the odds are low that any action on interest rates will take place.  We can’t imagine any rate increase being helpful to economic growth, and it is economic growth in the long run that moves stocks.  Our guess is the Janet Yellen will hold her customary press conference on Wednesday at 2:30 PM and hedge her position.  Financial stocks echoed this message, being one of the weakest performers last week.  Until then the S&P Financial Sector had been chugging along, increasing over 4% in the last three months.

So what could shake things up?  Second quarter earnings reports will start in early July.  That is almost always good for a pre-announcement run-up in prices.  And then there is that nagging reality, the presidential election campaign. This is a real wildcard for the market to digest.  Until now, the primaries have had no impact.  But that will change as the summer progresses.  

Economic News This Week
The consumer is the key to the direction of the economy.   Retail sales will be released Tuesday followed at the end of the week by Housing Starts and Building Permits.  After a huge bump in April, expectations are for a Retail Sales drop to a modest 0.4% from the 1.3% the previous month.

The June FOMC meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday with Janet Yellen’s press conference at 2:30 PM on Wednesday.  Rather than any change in rates, you should look for subtle changes in Yellen’s posture.

June 13 - 2, 2016

BMR Companies and Comments

For many weeks in this newsletter we have shared the view that 2016 is a year when stock picking will be the key to investment success.  So this week we want to spend most of the Bull Market Report on money-making stock ideas.  Here we go.

Twitter (TWTR: $14.02, down 8% on the week) The stock has had a rough ride this year.   There is no shortage of naysayers about the future of Twitter.  We disagree.  Here is why:  Twitter is an iconic service and a globally recognized brand.  It has over 310 million users and growing.  Twitter has compiled a treasure trove of data that many social media companies would pay dearly to own.  

Since founder Jack Dorsey returned to the CEO spot last year, he set out to improve Twitter’s user experience and that means committing serious resources to Live Steaming Video.  Execution of this strategy will begin to bear fruit later this year when Twitter will stream certain NFL games on Thursday nights.  Twitter usage has always been at its highest during big real time sporting events so don’t be surprised when more deals of this type are announced.

In the meantime, active users grew 3% to 310 million in 1Q16.  The company is doing a great job in monetizing its users as advertising revenue in 1Q16 jumped 36%.  

Dorsey is taking the company in the right direction.  Even the skeptics concede, the company customer database is an asset that competitors would love to get their hands on.  The list of potential suitors includes giants like Google and Facebook as well as desperate companies like Yahoo.   Will one of these firms, or another that we haven’t thought of yet, like Sony or Samsung, make a play for the firm and drive the price to $20 or higher? How this all works out will not take much longer.  Our guess is less than a year. Twitter is relevant in 2016 and will be relevant in 2017 and beyond, and thus has tremendous value at $14 a share, just $10 billion in market cap.

Gilead Sciences (GILD: $84, down 2%) Last Monday, a US District Judge threw out Merck’s patent infringement suit against Gilead.  The judge accused Merck of perjury and unethical practices.  Gilead had already paid $200 million to Merck in compliance with the lower court ruling and charged this to 1Q16 earnings.  Not only does this charge get reversed, but the requirement of a 10% royalty payment is also eliminated.   

This changes everything.  Let’s focus on its drugs, Harvoni and Sovaldi.  These two drugs have generated sales of more than $30 billion, marking the biggest drug launch in history.  Merck’s version of the drug contains the patented formula called sofosbuvir, and is priced about one half of Harvoni.  But if Gilead is the legal owner of sofosbuvir, it is Merck that will have to license it from Gilead.  Once investors appreciate the implications of Monday’s ruling, the stock will move higher.  We are strong believers in this company.

Facebook (FB: $117, down 2%) Facebook has been a top performing stock in the Social Media sector this year and one of the big gainers in the market overall.  When you are on top as Facebook is there are lots of critics that try to chip away looking for any flaws in their strategy.  How can you fault a company strategy that has created a stock valuation of $330 billion and that grew revenues 52% in the latest quarter?

Team Zuckerberg is doing an amazing job keeping the company relevant.  Remember, Facebook is only 12 years old, ancient in tech circles.  The company showed their smarts by adapting to mobile platforms, messaging, and importantly, with the 2012 acquisition of Instagram where the demographic is younger than the average Facebook user.  Month after month both Facebook and Instagram rank in the top 10 of free app downloads.  This is a sure sign of enduring customer loyalty.

It is Facebook’s constant attention to improving user experience that keeps them on top.   At the same time, they haven’t lost sight of longer-term diversification opportunities.  That’s what makes the company so compelling.  Here are two great examples:  Last Wednesday, Facebook added video capability to the Comments window.  Now instead of typing or texting, users simply tap an icon and send a live video comment.  According to the industry authority, TechCrunch, by 2020, video will represent over 80% of Internet traffic.

Finally, we also learned last week that Facebook has begun testing a new money transfer and payment system in China.  This is the beginning of a giant long term opportunity.   Faithful investors in Facebook are being rewarded and the end is nowhere in sight.

Qualcomm (QCOM: $54, down 2.0%) Call it smart stock picking or good timing.  Qualcomm, with a 26% gain after being added to our Stocks for Success in February, is a winner.  (We think it is just fabulous stock picking!) As you know, Qualcomm is all about mobile computing with its Snapdragon - System on a Chip.  Qualcomm offers a range of models from basic mobile phones to the latest Smartphone’s from Apple and Samsung.

Mobile phones are simply the largest selling consumer electronics device ever invented.  Almost 1.5 billion Smartphone’s were sold worldwide in 2015.  Add to that an additional  500 million non-internet feature phones and you have a picture of how big Qualcomm’s market measures.  By 2019, according to Gartner Research, sales of all types of mobile phones will reach 2.4 billion.  

The wind is still at Qualcomm’s back and we feel the stock is still undervalued.  Wall Street is estimating 2016 earnings of $4.10, giving the company a lowly multiple of 13.  The dividend is running at $2.12 annually, a tidy 3.9% yield.  Wall Street believes earnings will grow more than 10% a year over the next five years.  The balance sheet is loaded with $30 billion in cash and more is piling up every year.  This is a huge reserve for future dividend increases or value-enhancing stock buybacks.  A stock with all this going for it is worth much more than today’s price.  It is time to get invested in this high quality issue.  

LinkedIn (LNKD: $131, down 3%) The stock got a nice boost last week by RBC Capital, upgrading their recommendation to Outperform with a $160 price target.  We agree the stock will trade higher but $160 is just a short-term objective.  Remember, the all-time high was reached a little more than a year ago when it hit $276.

LinkedIn is the place to go to connect to jobs and career advancement advice.  The site has a lot of “stickiness” – a measure of the time spent browsing the website.  Advertisers love to use this measure and LinkedIn has a lot of it. It consistently ranks among the highest traffic websites and in a recent survey, 20% of LinkedIn followers even use the site as their primary news resource.  

Two thirds of its global business is what LinkedIn calls Talent Solutions.  The search for a new or better job remains vibrant.  Revenues in 1Q16 from LinkedIn Talent Search jumped 40%.  The low unemployment rate in the US hasn’t slowed business a bit.  Now the company is launching Profinder, its own freelancing service.  The temporary and part time labor force amounts to about 20% of all employment. Intuit predicts by 2020, the total will rise to 40%.  So, this is a smart and timely move by LinkedIn.

Fitbit (FIT: $14.10, down 4%) We made the tough decision last week to remove Fitbit from our Special Opportunities Portfolio.  We added the stock in March at $14.55 and removed it last week at $14.40.  The stock has done nothing in that time and this may be the case in the future.  There are some real questions that concern us about the market for wearable devices.  Such as: 40% of fitness devices wind up sitting in a drawer after only a few months of purchase.  The accuracy of the devices is also being brought into question by a class action lawsuit.  This is not good news.  Interestingly, there was an upgrade on the stock that came out Friday that we issued a News Flash on, but the stock dropped anyway.  Listen: We took a shot and the stock is down only 1%.  It didn’t work out but just as importantly, we didn’t lose any money.

The Apple Corner
Apple (AAPL: $99, up 1%).  Apple held up nicely this week.  Watch for announcements from Apple's hotly anticipated Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), which takes place Monday.  There are a few rumors about it of course. Apple is reportedly looking for real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area to serve their self-driving  car project. They are said to be looking at an 800,000-square-foot plot.  (That’s big.)

We continue to be amazed at how many iPhones are out there compared to the Androids.  We live in a wealthy area, Aspen, so our results are skewed, but in our town we would guess the split between Apple and others is in the neighborhood of 80-20, and we might just be low.  We think intelligent people see the tremendous value the iPhone offers.  And even though iPhone sales were in a “slowdown” last quarter, it was just a smidge, as sales continue at an amazing pace, and the cumulative number sold could reach 1 billion by late 2017. In April, CEO Tim Cook stated that the iPhone installed base had grown by 80% in the past two years.  Upgrades now drive most of Apple's iPhone sales, but the iPhone is still bringing in tons of new users. We are looking for iPhone sales to rise by over 10% in 2017. And Apple is poised for another year of 10%+ growth in 2018. The number of people switching to the iPhone from Android is at a record high. There is plenty of room for smartphone ownership to rise in emerging markets, too. Both of these trends support the continued growth of Apple's iPhone installed base.

These numbers talk to us as we know that it will produce revenues from the App Store, and from the fact that people fall in love with the device and then want an iMac and an iPad.  The iPhone is a franchise that won’t quit and with the iPhone 7 coming out in September there is only more good news to report about late this year and next.

BMR Take:  Things are quiet lately on the Apple stock price front.  But not with the company.  They have 110,000 employees working to make life better for all of us.  The cash hoard is huge and growing, and it’s only a matter of time before something new and exciting happens at this firm.  We are strong buyers here at $99 a share.  

Tesla Update
Today, Apple is the largest company in the world by market cap. But Tesla Motors (TSLA: $219, flat) could rocket so high in the next 10 or 15 years that the current $32 billion market cap could exceed even Apple’s $540 billion.

This is according to Ron Baron, CEO of Baron Capital, who went on CNBC recently to rave about Tesla.  He has a $300 million position in the company and he thinks the stock could grow up to 20 times its size in the next 10-15 years to the $650 billion level.  He expects to make $6-7 billion off of that position as Tesla becomes one of the biggest companies in the entire world.

He says: “The competition is nowhere. They could have caught Elon Musk four or five years ago, but they can’t catch him now. He’s too far ahead.”

Why?  Well, for starters, all the things we have been saying about the company.  Like the billions of dollars they’ve invested in its Gigafactory, which is nearing completion in Nevada and will be responsible for supplying batteries to the millions of Tesla Model 3s it produces once the car hits the streets in 2018.

Baron sees the ability to mass-produce batteries at such a massive scale as an absolute necessity for anyone hoping to compete with Tesla head-on in electric vehicles. The Gigafactory, according Musk, will have the largest footprint of any building in the world - the Gigafactory will be the largest building by area on the planet earth.

BMR Take:  What can we say?  We agree!

 

ENERGY CORNER
Notes at the Margin
by Phil Verleger, Jr., International Energy Expert
Former Director of the Office of Energy Policy at the Dept. of Treasury
www.PKVerlegerLLC.com

Markets were pulled and pushed last week. Attacks on producing facilities in Nigeria and new fires in Canada added upward pressure. Our estimate of a $15-per-barrel disruption premium is probably out of date. By Wednesday, it may have risen to $20.

However, the disruptions do not seem to have attracted hot money.  At this juncture, we see a decrease in prices back toward $30 per barrel as disruptions in Canada are resolved and the Nigerian situation stabilizes. The forecast, though, depends on such developments, an assumption that may not be reasonable.

BMR Take:  With Crude hovering at $50 the world just feels better.  This might seem simplistic to you but remember how we felt when crude hit $30 and then saw it dip below into the 20s?  People were talking about $20 oil then and the massive bankruptcies that were going to go with it.  And people were afraid and worried.  Even at $50 we are seeing some bankruptcies and restructurings, the latter generally a good thing. So at $50 there is hope.  If crude heads to $30 again as Phil Verleger thinks above, then things could get dicey again, with the overall stock market more than likely heading lower.  Conversely, at $50 the Energy world is much more stable, which lends itself to a stable stock market and growth in the economy.  

High Yield Portfolio Corner
The iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (JNK: $84) ended the week with no price action, after jumping up over 1% in the middle of the week and falling by the end of the week. Similarly, the UBS ETRACS BDC ETF (BDCS: $20) saw no real move this week, although it was significantly weaker and more volatile than junk bonds, which is not terribly unusual. The dramatic no-move of the week is a result of broader macroeconomic fears. With weak jobs growth, investors are starting to get scared that the fundamentals of America may be a tad weaker. Still, the market remains in risk-on mode, as evidenced by junk bonds still managing to hold their pricing for now.

Government Properties Income Trust (GOV: $20, up 1%) had a modest gain that outperformed most high yield stocks, thanks in part to an end-of-the week bump that moderated on Friday as the market broadly became more cautious. Still, market confidence in management remains solid, and for good reason. The company has changed the structure of its operations somewhat in recent months to find higher returns. They began investing in non-government office properties to offset weak government expansion. So far this helped bolster overall occupancy rates and FFO. We see this as more of an opportunity as a risk. The company's continued strong dividend payout coverage is a testament to management's ability to invest wisely and enrich shareholders.

Pimco Dynamic Income Fund (PDI: $27, down 1%) saw a decline this week, but that's good news - the fund paid a dividend this week, which accounted for almost all of those losses. (As we’re sure you know, when a stock pays a dividend it goes “x-dividend” and the stock opens for trading on that day, down the amount of the dividend it is paying.) This fund continues to maintain its payout and is now trading at a slight premium to Net Asset Value, making it still an attractive hold. With continued declining defaults in the mortgage market and a stable corporate bond market, this fund is having no problem maintaining its 10% dividend. We hope you bought some earlier this year when we recommended it, as you got this stock much cheaper - and got a yield of 11% (plus some hefty unrealized short-term capital gains). We are still holding on to this one as it's one of the best income producers out there.

Enough about steady stocks - let's talk about a monster. Digital Realty Trust (DLR: $102, up 3%) posted another week of sharp gains, helping it to rise 36% year-to-date! That's a staggering number, which just goes to show that REITs can sometimes provide more than just income. What's the story here? Two things are going on. Firstly, Digital Realty had an awful 2015, where the REIT industry broadly suffered from a broad-based de-risking. Investors, fearing the next market downturn, began to offload REITs, and Digital Realty was a victim. Secondly, and more importantly, Digital Realty has made some significant operating expansions that will grow its Funds From Operations more than many had anticipated. Late to the party, those bulls are now jumping in. Good for us, since we got in much earlier and closer to the bottom. If you are not in, we would still be buyers here.  Paying a solid 3.4% dividend, we expect a dividend increase in the next six months.

Overall, this was a ho-hum week for high yield in general and a good week for our High Yield Portfolio. The overall stock market still is looking for a reason to correct. The awful jobs report from last month, where just 38,000 new jobs were added and the unemployment rate dropped because people gave up looking for jobs, is the beginning of a good excuse. We're not necessarily bearish on the market, but we are cautious - and our cautiousness grows every week the junk bond market doesn't decline. Junk bond yields as measured by the Merrill Lynch High Yield benchmark have fallen to their lowest point in a year and have not been this low since seeing major corrections late in 2015 and earlier this year. This is happening despite higher bankruptcy rates, which suggests higher risk and thus higher yields for these bonds.

The gains we had in the last few weeks were great for our portfolio and give us some confidence,  This will be a great opportunity to add a bit more to the portfolio and gain more income at higher yields.

Good Investing!
Todd Shaver, Editor in Chief
Info@BullMarket.com

 

May 20, 2016

TESLA RAISES SERIOUS CASH

Tesla Motors (TSLA: $215, up $10 since Tuesday’s close) raised $1.45 billion in new capital from the sale of 6.8 million new shares. The company said it needs the cash to finance the expansion of production of its electric vehicles to 500,000 a year by 2018. We feel this to be an impossible task but with the existing $1.4 billion it has in the bank, the total of $2.8 billion in cash will go a long way to increasing production.  We think a target of 2020 or 2021 is more realistic.  After all, they only sold 33,000 cars in 2014 and 51,000 in 2015.

The shares were priced at $215 by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch, a sweet deal for these firms. Elon Musk sold 2.8 million of his own shares, raising a cool $630 million. He got a slug of new options just before this, so his ownership wasn’t really diluted.  Between his ownership in SpaceX (private), Solar City (SCTY: $21) and Tesla, Musk is worth $12.5 billion according to Forbes, give or take a billion. What’s a billion anymore when you think about it?

BMR Take:  We are believers in Elon Musk and his three companies.  But Tesla is not without risk.  It is a new car company and there haven’t been any successful car companies started in multiple decades. He’s got a big head start here though, especially with the 400,000+ orders he got for the new Model 3 announced this year.  With $1000 deposits from these folks the company has over $400 million in cash that they can use as well.

Where will the stock go?  No one knows, but we have it in the Special Opportunities Portfolio because we think it will go higher over the years. But be careful with this one.  It’s not like investing in Ma Bell in the 50s and 60s.  Perhaps you might consider selling calls on your investment to lower your cost.  Ask your financial advisor how to do this or write us here: Info@BullMarket.com.
 

May 4, 2016

FITBIT AND TESLA REPORT EARNINGS

Fitbit has great quarter.  The market doesn't think so

Fitbit (FIT, $17.10, flat on the day but down $1.85 in after-hours trading to $15.25) reported earnings Wednesday after the close.  Earnings were 10 cents beating the forecast for 2 cents. Revenues totaled $505 million, topping the estimate for $445 million, with 4.8 million devices sold during the first quarter. BMR Take – A super quarter. But guidance for the next quarter was light, at 10 cents, versus 26 cents expected.  And that’s what the market didn’t like.

Fitbit's profits guidance also beat expectations. The company sees $1.17 next quarter, up from an earlier projection.  The CEO said: "Based on the first quarter’s performance and momentum, we are confident about the remainder of the year, which is reflected in our increased guidance."  

Fitbit sees full-year revenues of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. Its second-quarter revenue forecast was better than expected, at $575 million versus $530 million expected.

BMR Take:  We don’t see anything bad in this report.  We think the market is insane for reacting this way.  If there is any logic left in this world, we would suggest that Fitbit is a buying opportunity.

 

Tesla Reports Sales and Earnings

Tesla (TSLA: $223, down $10 during the day, but up $7 to $229 in after-hours trading) reported Wednesday after the close.  Some bullets:
--- The company is on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 electric vehicles this year
--- Tesla vowed to reach an annual production target of 500,000 cars in 2018, two years faster than expected.
--- They warned that spending will ramp up in tandem.
--- Elon Musk, the Chairman and CEO said the 2020 volume target was close to 1 million vehicles.
    
Tesla reported a wider first-quarter net loss, although results broadly beat Wall Street targets. "Increasing production 5-fold over the next two years will be challenging and likely require some additional capital but this is our goal," Tesla said in a statement.

The net loss widened to $280 million, or $2.10 per share from a loss of $155 million, or $1.22 per share, a year earlier. Excluding extraordinary items, the company lost 57 cents per share, about equal to expectations. Revenue rose to $1.15 billion from $940 million.

BMR Take:  This stock is not for the faint of heart.  If you believe in Elon Musk you are a buyer of the stock.  If not, find something more secure.  Like General Motors.  (Just kidding!)  But seriously, there are many growth stocks out there that have less risk than a new car company like Tesla.  We are believers in the company but have none of our money in the stock (like ALL of our portfolio stocks.)  So it is easy for us to suggest this company as a buy.  So please put this investment in perspective for your own personal risk levels and goals.